Can somebody help me figure out why I don't have an option to set up a dual boot installation?
This is the second time I tried installing Mint on my PC. First time the installer stalled and went nowhere for 40 minutes, second time I'm missing the first option for dual booting. My trust in Linux isn't the highest right now.
Edit: I was able to get it working. I just shrunk my D: drive by 100GB, for some reason that made it work.
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Ukraine War Leads to Global Shortage of TNT | (Global = Western)
TLDR
- The US is facing a severe domestic shortage as it has no active TNT production plants and its traditional supply lines have been cut.
- Poland was a primary supplier to the US but is now diverting most of its production to Ukraine for its war effort, reducing exports.
- Ukraine is consuming all of its own domestic production and imports from allies like Poland for its military, leaving none for export.
- Russia & China: Have completely stopped exporting TNT to the US, cutting off two other major former sources.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/us/politics/ukraine-war-tnt-shortage.html
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Poland had been the Pentagon’s sole authorized supplier of TNT. But it has been sending much of what it makes across its border to Ukraine, which is using all that it produces for its own military purposes.
That's crazy. I wonder how long would the MIC be able to sustain a hot war if the EU and PRC stops exporting production to the US.
Kanro - Cold dew (寒露) - Blogpost
I tried to capture that moment in my recent photos.
Kanro - Cold dew (寒露)
Kanro - when the day's warmth fades, nature exhales, and autumn deepens.mtk's blog
Sunday, October 12, 2025
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The Kyiv Independent [unofficial]
Millions read the Kyiv Independent, but only one in 1,000 supports us financially
Russia’s war against Ukraine
A view of a destroyed secondary school following a drone attack in the city of Kramatorsk on Oct. 11, 2025. (Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Zelensky discusses air defense with Trump after Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid. “I informed President Trump about Russia’s attacks on our energy system — and I appreciate his willingness to support us,” Zelensky said.
Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery 1,400 kilometers from front, SBU source says. Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) drones struck a Russian oil refinery in Ufa on the morning of Oct. 11, resulting in explosions and a fire, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent.
Fires reported in Russia’s Belgorod oblast amid suspected power plant attack, local officials say. Falling debris from downed missiles sparked fires and caused damage in Belgorod, Russia, the regional governor reported Oct. 11 amid a suspected attack on a power plant in the city.
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UK, Ukraine sign LYRA defense cooperation agreement. Ukraine and the U.K. agreed to launch the LYRA defense cooperation program, focusing on battlefield tech and joint weapons development, Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced Oct. 11.
Ukrainian air defenses operating at 74% effectiveness, military chief says. “Over the past month, (Russia) has increased the number of air strikes 1.3 times,” Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
Zelensky approves new Russia sanctions in coordination with Japan. President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed new sanctions targeting Russian individuals and entities, aligning Ukraine’s latest measures with those previously imposed by Japan.
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Human cost of Russia’s war
Russian attacks kill 5, injure 17 in Ukraine over past day, hit energy grid. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 54 out of the 78 Shahed-type attack drones and other drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Twenty-one drone strikes were recorded at six locations.
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International response
Trump threatens China with additional 100% tariffs amid trade tensions. “The United States of America will impose a tariff of 100% on China, over and above any tariff that they are currently paying,” Donald Trump said.
UK, France, Germany to move forward with using Russian assets to aid Ukraine. “We agree to develop further bold and innovative mechanisms to increase the cost of Russia’s war and ramp up pressure,” the British government said in a statement.
Latvia orders over 800 Russian citizens to leave by mid-October. Latvia has ordered 841 Russian citizens to leave the country by Oct. 13, citing their failure to meet legal requirements, including proof of Latvian language proficiency and passing a national security screening, Politico reported.
Belarus launches military readiness check as security concerns grow. The Belarusian military is implementing a “set of measures” to bring select units to their “highest level of combat readiness” under Alexander Lukashenko’s direct orders.
North Korea displays new ICBM during parade with Russia’s Medvedev in attendance. The parade, attended by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and United Russia party leader Dmitry Medvedev, featured a display of advanced weaponry.
Estonia closes border crossing with Russia over unusual military activity. Estonia has temporarily closed the Saatse border crossing following heightened Russian military activity near the area, the Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on Oct. 10.
NATO aircraft carry out 12-hour flight near Russian border amid rising tensions. The joint U.K.-U.S. operation was conducted on Oct. 9, following recent airspace violations by Russia targeting several NATO countries.
German airlines call to shoot down drones threatening airports. Germany’s airlines are calling for drones that threaten airport operations to be shot down, Der Spiegel reported on Oct. 11. The call to action comes amid a recent surge of unidentified drone sightings that have disrupted airports in Germany, prompting efforts to address the threat.
Hungary launches petition against EU’s Ukraine war funding, Orban says. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Oct. 11 that Budapest has launched a nationwide petition drive to collect signatures in opposition to the European Union’s “war plan” to finance Ukraine’s war effort.
In other news
Bomb threats force Ukrainian Railways to halt 3 trains, including international line. The affected trains included routes between Dnipro and Kyiv, Ternopil and Kyiv, and the international Kyiv–Warsaw route.
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Spyware maker NSO Group confirms acquisition by US investors | TechCrunch
Spyware maker NSO Group confirms acquisition by US investors | TechCrunch
NSO Group confirmed to TechCrunch that an unnamed group of American investors has taken “controlling ownership” of the surveillance tech maker.Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai (TechCrunch)
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Funny. Normally we call people selling these kinds of products criminals and attempt to shut them down. Turns out those naughty lads were just going about it the wrong way. They should have gone public, floated the company and sold for dollars instead of bitcoin, and suddenly everything would magically have been just fine.
It's a neat trick, and it works for other unsavory things normally not allowed too: "Unregulated militias and arms trafficking" becomes a "PMC", "kidnapping and slavery" becomes "prison services" etc.
A reminder that the US is run by religious fanatics
Inside tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s off-the-record lectures about the antichrist
The political svengali and investor has been giving lectures on ‘an evil king or tyrant … who appears in the end times’Johana Bhuiyan (The Guardian)
Israel raids homes of West Bank prisoners set to be released in deal
The Israeli army has raided the homes of several Palestinian prisoners in the occupied West Bank whose names were included in the list of prisoners to be released in an exchange deal following the Gaza ceasefire.
For the third day running, Israel violates Gaza ‘ceasefire’ to maim and murder Palestinians
cross-posted from: ibbit.at/post/80105
Israel has violated the ‘ceasefire’ it agreed with Palestinian militia to bomb, murder and maim Palestinians for the third consecutive day – the first three days of the supposed ceasefire period.
Israel: horrific violations of the ceasefire
On Saturday 11 October, an occupation drone targeted a group of civilians in the Jabalia refugee camp, killing one civilian and seriously injuring several others, including one man left with both lower legs shredded or gone:thecanary.co/wp-content/upload…
Israel thinks – correctly, because of the collaboration of the UK and other western governments – that it can get away with mass the mass slaughter of civilians and daily breaches of its supposed commitments.
It is a rogue and terror state.
Featured image via the Canary
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The Great Software Quality Collapse: How We Normalized Catastrophe
The Great Software Quality Collapse: How We Normalized Catastrophe
The Apple Calculator leaked 32GB of RAM.Denis Stetskov (From the Trenches)
The main issue is that software quality was generally pretty dodgy to start off with. There just isn’t any headroom to trade off.
We’re just don’t know how to reliably write reliable software. We have developed practices to cover risks we deem unacceptable, but things like the halting problem make software verification fundamentally an intractable problem.
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That’s grade A horse cap.
The only tool we have to guarantee the software works according to the specification is formal verification, and formal methods are a PAIN to use and are extremely limited in scope.
For the rest, the best we can do is “hope you thought of everything” (aka manual and automated testing) and “have a colleague look it over” (aka code reviews).
And that does not even start to tackle the issue that is making sure the spec solves the problem in the first place.
Yes, all the other things you mention are true too. But you were set up for failure from the start by the gods of intractable complexity first.
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Which is exactly what I just said.
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NASA's 10 Rules for Developing Safety-Critical Code
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Laboratory for Reliable Software developed a set of code guidelines for developing safety-critical code.Stuart Foster (Perforce Software)
China's Plan to Cripple America's Economy
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Cryptologist DJB Alleges NSA is Pushing an End to Backup Algorithms for Post-Quantum Cryptography
"The problem in a nutshell. Surveillance agency NSA and its [UK counterpart] GCHQ are trying to have standards-development organizations endorse weakening [pre-quantum] ECC+PQ down to just PQ."Part of this is that NSA and GCHQ have been endlessly repeating arguments that this weakening is a good thing... I'm instead looking at how easy it is for NSA to simply spend money to corrupt the standardization process.... The massive U.S. military budget now publicly requires cryptographic "components" to have NSA approval... In June 2024, NSA's William Layton wrote that "we do not anticipate supporting hybrid in national security systems"...
[Later a Cisco employee wrote of selling non-hybrid cryptography to a significant customer, "that's what they're willing to buy. Hence, Cisco will implement it".]
What do you do with your control over the U.S. military budget? That's another opportunity to "shape the worldwide commercial cryptography marketplace". You can tell people that you won't authorize purchasing double encryption. You can even follow through on having the military publicly purchase single encryption. Meanwhile you quietly spend a negligible amount of money on an independent encryption layer to protect the data that you care about, so you're actually using double encryption.
Cryptologist DJB Alleges NSA is Pushing an End to Backup Algorithms for Post-Quantum Cryptography - Slashdot
Cryptologist/CS professor Daniel J. Bernstein is alleging that America's National Security Agency is attempting to influence NIST post-quantum cryptography standards.it.slashdot.org
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Nobody gives a shit about NIST if they lose the 1 thing that make them useful : their credibility.
If some credible doubt is shed on them ... then NIST is just an acronym with no power.
That being said IMHO a pragmatic heuristic is spotting "Do what I say, not what I do" and thus if NSA relies on PQ, or hybrid, or something well you can deduce from that they assume whatever solution they do NOT use if then not safe in a useful lifespan (which might be totally different from your threat model).
Edit : did tinker with openquantumsafe.org/about/ in particular github.com/open-quantum-safe so if you have an opinion on that I'd be curious.
About our project
Open-source software for prototyping quantum-resistant cryptographyOpen Quantum Safe
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If some credible doubt is shed on them ... then NIST is just an acronym with no power.
Doubt it, given tha NIST has no credibility among researches, only in the general public that ignore their shenanigans:
- NIST already aproved NSA backdoors.
- NIST has extensive record of colaborating with NSA, including following their orders.
- NIST is pushing for unsecure post-quantum algorithms, that may be secure against quantum computers, but weak against normal, modern computers.
NIST doesn't need credibility, it simply needs to pass along NSA's aproval stamp for $next_algorithm, so $next_algorithm becomes a widely used standar.
Pushing for insecure post-quantum algorithms, that may be secure against quantum computers
Eh, I doubt that is how it works. We do not have quantum computers yet, so how we prove security in quantum settings is by specifying the adversary to have specified quantum capabilities, in addition to classical capabilities. Hence, broken under traditional attack means broken under quantum attack.
You can say that new post-quantum schemes are less verified compared to established classical schemes, but that does not mean classical is necessarily more secure.
I think we both agree on the same thing, I comunicated it badly. The better approach is to apply a post-quantun algorithm on top of a classical one, so you are safe against both types of computers. The advantage of this approach is that you need to crack both algorithms at the same time.
NIST seems to prefers a hybrid approach, where a single algorithm is supposedly safe against both classical and quantum computers, leaving you with a single point of failure.
You can always encrypt the payload twice if you want. But really what are you arguing? That every time you encrypt something, you should encrypt it serially with all known encryption algorithms "just in case?" Hell why not do it again just to make sure?
A key component of encryption is efficiency. Most cryptographic processes are going to be occurring billions of times across billions of transactions and involving billions of systems. It's worthwhile for robust encryption algorithms to be efficient and avoid unnecessary calculations unless those calculations demonstrate some advantage. For example PBKDF2, where the multiple rounds of identical encryption convey a demonstrable increase in time to decrypt via brute-force mechanisms. If the standard is 4096 which it was in 2005, you coming along and saying, but why isn't it 4097? The CIA is using >4096, therefore that means that 4096 is insecure! Isn't really understanding why 4096 was chosen to begin with. Additionally no one is stopping you from using one million iterations with key1 and then doing another million rounds with key2.
That's not what I'm trying to say. I'm not saying apply 1000 classical algos on top of 1000 quantum algos. I'm saying that post-quantum needs to be an extra layer, not a replacement.
This is explained further in the first few sentences of the third link I posted: blog.cr.yp.to/20251004-weakene… Note the author is an expert in the topic: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_J…
Well I haven't see the arguement for why Quantum resistent encryption would somehow be weaker to traditional cryptographic techniques. I understand that early "quantum encryption" alogrithms were flawed, and it'll probably be a long time before we get the DES of Quantum Encryption. But all that means is that we don't have vetted "strong" quantum encryption techniques yet, and should stick with traditional encryption since quantum encryption isn't worth it yet. If Quantum encryption becomes worthwhile, we shouldn't have "traditional encryption", because it will be obsolete.
If the first cylinder lock was easily bypassed compared to my old reliable wafer lock, then why should I use the cylinder lock at all? Now that cylinder locks are better then wafer locks why should I use a tumbler lock at all? There is no added security by using a wafer lock.
Quantum computers represent a complete paradigmatic. Modern quantum computers beat classical ones on some problems, while still not being able to factor some 2 digit numbers.
A single algorithm would be probable arrive some day, but why risk it right now? The Signal protocol adopted Post-Quantum some years ago. They going for a hybrid, not well tested over several years against classical computers, algorithm, would have been a security disaster.
Quantum Resistance and the Signal Protocol
The Signal Protocol is a set of cryptographic specifications that provides end-to-end encryption for private communications exchanged daily by billions of people around the world.Signal Messenger
Cryptologist DJB Alleges NSA is Pushing an End to Backup Algorithms for Post-Quantum Cryptography
"The problem in a nutshell. Surveillance agency NSA and its [UK counterpart] GCHQ are trying to have standards-development organizations endorse weakening [pre-quantum] ECC+PQ down to just PQ."Part of this is that NSA and GCHQ have been endlessly repeating arguments that this weakening is a good thing... I'm instead looking at how easy it is for NSA to simply spend money to corrupt the standardization process.... The massive U.S. military budget now publicly requires cryptographic "components" to have NSA approval... In June 2024, NSA's William Layton wrote that "we do not anticipate supporting hybrid in national security systems"...
[Later a Cisco employee wrote of selling non-hybrid cryptography to a significant customer, "that's what they're willing to buy. Hence, Cisco will implement it".]
What do you do with your control over the U.S. military budget? That's another opportunity to "shape the worldwide commercial cryptography marketplace". You can tell people that you won't authorize purchasing double encryption. You can even follow through on having the military publicly purchase single encryption. Meanwhile you quietly spend a negligible amount of money on an independent encryption layer to protect the data that you care about, so you're actually using double encryption.
Cryptologist DJB Alleges NSA is Pushing an End to Backup Algorithms for Post-Quantum Cryptography - Slashdot
Cryptologist/CS professor Daniel J. Bernstein is alleging that America's National Security Agency is attempting to influence NIST post-quantum cryptography standards.it.slashdot.org
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It will be funny to see the ietf tls wg realize that they only have a tenuous grasp of control over the protocol. The very complexity that makes tls suck can be used to just ignore them, create their own suits, disable or not implement the trash they are peddling.
It's kind of crazy to see them basically ignore DJB and justify it with a technicality. This could go badly for them in the court of public opinion.
We fight wars to live in peace, we grow sheep to eat lamb chops, and we keep trust to gain reputation to then spend it. That quote about stones.
Still very good to see someone as famous as Bernstein say this.
But yes, it's weird, TLS allows whatever the software on two sides of the negotiation allow and support. GOST, something Chinese, something you've made yourself. Anything.
Except if there's somehow a vulnerability in TLS hidden in the open, but, eh, that's a bit too conspiracy-minded for a post not discussing TLS itself.
Survivor of 7 October Nova festival attack in Israel found dead
Roei Shalev, 30, whose girlfriend and best friend were killed in front of him at festival, took his own life on Friday night
Archived version: archive.is/newest/theguardian.…
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
The Original Sin of Computing...that no one can fix
- YouTube
Profitez des vidéos et de la musique que vous aimez, mettez en ligne des contenus originaux, et partagez-les avec vos amis, vos proches et le monde entier.www.youtube.com
British citizens serving in the IDF can now be tried for war crimes in the UK
Now that the UK has recognised Palestine as a state, this opens legal routes for British members of the IDF to be charged in the UK
Israel-US so-called 'Gaza Humanitarian Foundation' 'vanishes into thin air'
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has simply disappeared with the beginning of the supposed 'ceasefire' that Israel has violated
Archived version: archive.is/newest/thecanary.co…
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
NTSB Releases Final Report On Delta 757 Evacuation In Atlanta
The Boeing 757-300 evacuation resulted in eight injuries.
Meta AI adviser spreads disinformation about shootings, vaccines and trans people
Critics condemn Robby Starbuck, appointed in lawsuit settlement, for ‘peddling lies and pushing extremism’
Any UK-Layout keycaps identical to 8BitDo's C64 Keycaps?
When I first brought it year ago as it the first Mechanical keyboard I own, I only just notice it's a US Layout when I tried to use it which I assume because I got it on Amazon UK, it would be in UK Layout. ~~Note to myself, do few minutes of research before buying it online again.~~
I saw on 8BitDo's subreddit of someone contracting customer service if they sell UK-layout keycaps which they said no. I did tried look one identical to it but it both different colour and also in US-Layout.
Before tells me "Just use US Layout", I tried it and still feels unnatural to me. I really don't want my keyboard picking up some dust but if there's isn't any keycap that both looks identical and in UK, I'm considering maybe getting Keychron Keyboard at some point.
A tangled web of deals stokes AI bubble fears in Silicon Valley
A tangled web of deals stokes AI bubble fears in Silicon Valley
Some are worried that the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be a bubble waiting to burst.Lily Jamali (BBC News)
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But with OpenAI, [Sam Altman] told me, "there's something real happening here".
This sentience strikes me because it's a tacit admission that AI as it stands is way less valuable than people like Altman promised it would be. But trust me bro.
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It also jumped out at me too cause it was literally the opposite of the most true thing about AI.
Sure, you can argue that it helps and that improves productivity in some niche use cases, but by definition, there isn’t anything real there. It’s an empty husk that has been contorted to echo user prompts based on past Q&A.
It’s literally like calling a foot print something real cause you can reconstruct some of the foot.
I believe the same thing was said about the Internet in the ’90s: “It speeds up communication, but how would anyone earn money from it?”
Although I don’t think we’re anywhere close to AGI or anything like that, current AI development fundamentally changes a few things in our lives: how we find and process information (information retrieval works very well), how we interact with computers (using natural language instead of clicking through interfaces), and how productive we are.
Video generation models are going to bring entertainment to a whole new level. A single person can now create an entire movie without even buying a camera. Entire game development studios can build worlds larger than ever before. Text generation makes disinformation and propaganda insanely cheap and effective. Surveillance will be much easier now, as owning a communication platform not only allows you to search for messages by phrase but also by meaning. Ads will be far more personalized, as AI chat platforms now know us much better than Google — the current leader in this field.
So:
there isn’t anything real there?
I really don’t think so.
Installing internet and talking to my customer who was a day trader. Told him Google was about to launch their IPO and that I'd go all in if I had any money.
"Their search is the best, but I just don't see how they'll ever make any money."
These AI investors are banking on not being that guy.
And here I am in 2025, saying, "Just don't see how they'll make any money."
The costs are staggering. When the dust settles, who the hell is going to pay those staggering costs to the bubble survivors? At the consumer level, can't see it. OTOH, people pay for stupid shit like weather apps. 🤷🏻♂️
I foresee AI looking toxic to business pretty quickly. It will be a subscription that's limited to employees and departments that can demonstrate a need. I don't fault CEOs for their FOMO, but they'll quickly wise up.
So far as I can tell they’ve stolen everyone’s content and use it to pretend AI “knows” everything, or anything.
If that’s never addressed, and they will make it almost impossible to do that, AI will survive in several forms.
One outcome will be a sea-level-rise in superfluous text that’s all coming from the same point-of-view and is pretty bland.
You know how people don’t like to read now? Imagine every report, every article, every pullquote being three times longer than it needs to be and basically saying the same thing over and over.
One outcome will be a sea-level-rise in superfluous text that’s all coming from the same point-of-view and is pretty bland.
Searching the Internet for a banana bread recipe allows us to experience this full distopia, today.
The web used to be full of recipes. Now most of the web is copies of the same mediocre recipe wrapped in meaningless filler text and ads.
It feels like the village at the end of "A wrinkle in time".
It's a bubble all right. Except it bursting will be the result as expected. What we should do is try to first deflate it carefully, and then try to prevent it from just going boom.
Bubbles are not some unexpected crisis, they are basically a system created by people with a lot of power to suck the power others possess to themselves, to have even more power.
One can even call the British empire becoming less official and other colonial ventures drying up as a sequence of bubbles. Notably the European monarchs were not at a loss from it all.
The dotcom bubble sucked this way a lot of money in unclear directions (hedge funds are a thing, to launder such events), then somehow Facebook and Google and Amazon happen, all not very sophisticated things, but with a lot of convenient financing and publicity.
By the way, it's interesting that early concepts of NLS and Xanadu as things similar to the Web all didn't have the ditches requiring a bridge with tolls, speaking metaphorically, that the Web requires, and these big companies occurred as bridges over these ditches exactly. Like - when you have two-sided links, you don't need them. Not only many small places link to one popular place, but also the one popular place links to many small places. This, of course, also requires the system to be message-oriented, not connection-oriented. Otherwise why wouldn't the big place censor out reverse links. Like Usenet.
This would, of course, require globally identifiable objects and versioning, with a tree of versions, so that there could be plenty of versions of the same webpage. (I've always felt Torvalds is sincere when he says Git is his main contribution to humanity as a programmer.)
And links would have to be version-dependent. And links would have to be not part of objects, but associated objects themselves. This way you can have object directories, or fan-in objects (objects A, B and C combine into the object D, or maybe D follows from A, B, and C as a logical statement), or fan-out objects (there's object A, for which there are comments or subscripts B, C and D at some corresponding marks in the A structured text). Or, well, normal links referring to two objects (the exact location, again, of what part of a document is a link is contained in the link object).
This is a bit similar to voting systems, where ranked choice and ability to give a negative vote can change a lot. And this also encourages wide participation.
I just have that feeling that we as a humanity are led on a path of prepared bubbles enriching very specific people creating them and firmly knowing when and how they burst. When these people collect enough power, they might start changing the world in a direction we won't like at all.
OK, dreaming again.
It’s a bit of both. I’m a photographer and I like to think of my outfits like photos, especially when I’m going somewhere where I plan to network. I want to present myself as someone with a good sense of style and who knows how to make people look good. So my style is my own, but I try to make sure I look good and fit the vibe of where I’m going.
I recently went to a party focused on some spiritual stuff and to match the vibe I got some 3/4 harem pants, but I got ones with a slightly muted floral pattern to make it my own. I made the rest of my outfit plain and dark to match and really emphasize the new pants. It was a style a bit outside my comfort zone, but was a big hit and I got lots of compliments.
In bizarre move, Framework embraces deeply extremist views
Help! Drone motors 2 & 3 in wrong direction, not possible to switch using Betaflight. USB defective, any way to access ESC Configurator using WiFI connection?
The Trump Method
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Le celebrazioni di Genova per Cristoforo Colombo
Domenica 12 ottobre, Genova celebra Cristoforo Colombo con una serie di iniziative che culminano nella cerimonia colombiana a Palazzo Ducale, che si conclude con il conferimento dell’onorificenza del Grifo Città di Genova alla partigiana Mirella Alloisio. Come da tradizione ad anticipare l’evento più solenne, alle ore 15, le partenze dei cortei storici, che animano il centro cittadino.
La prima iniziativa ha come protagonista il Corteo Storico del Comune di Genova, con una sfilata da Palazzo Ducale che attraversa piazza Matteotti, piano di Sant’Andrea, Porta Soprana e vico Dritto Ponticello per raggiungere la Casa di Colombo dove si tiene una cerimonia commemorativa con deposizione di corone e interventi istituzionali.
Il secondo appuntamento, intitolato “I Chiostri del Tempo di Colombo”, è organizzato dal Comitato Nazionale per Colombo di Bruno Aloi ed è patrocinato dal Comune di Genova. L’evento prevede la partenza contemporanea di due cortei che confluiscono in piazza De Ferrari: il “Corteo del Nuovo Mondo” (percorso via Garibaldi, piazza Fontane Marose, via XXV Aprile); il “Corteo del Vecchio Mondo” (Casa di Colombo, via Dante, via Fieschi e via XX Settembre). Insieme, poi, lungo via San Lorenzo sino a Calata Falcone Borsellino, al Porto Antico, dove viene rievocato lo sbarco di Cristoforo Colombo a San Salvador il 12 ottobre 1492. L’iniziativa coinvolge complessivamente circa 350 figuranti.
Dalle ore 17, nel Salone del Maggior Consiglio di Palazzo Ducale, si svolgerà la Cerimonia Colombiana, istituita negli anni Cinquanta. La celebrazione sarà aperta dal saluto ai liguri nel mondo da parte della sindaca di Genova Silvia Salis alla presenza di Mario Menini, presidente dell’Associazione Liguri nel Mondo.
Seguiranno gli interventi del presidente di Regione Liguria Marco Bucci, dell’assessore comunale alla Cultura Giacomo Montanari e del direttore del Galata Museo del Mare Piero Campodonico. In rappresentanza del Consiglio dei Ministri interverrà il ministro per la Pubblica Amministrazione Paolo Zangrillo.
La relazione annuale, affidata a Roberto Santamaria, ricercatore dell’Università per Stranieri di Siena, avrà come tema: “Non solo Colombo: i genovesi dominatori del commercio del marmo nel Mar Mediterraneo”.
Nel corso della commemorazione verranno conferiti i Premi Colombiani. La Medaglia Colombiana al professor Antonio Musarra, riconoscimento destinato a chi, indipendentemente dalla nazionalità, si sia distinto per ardimento, impegno negli studi e nelle esperienze, nonché per audacia nelle realizzazioni di alto valore umano o in efficaci contributi scientifici e divulgativi.
Il Premio Internazionale delle Comunicazioni “Cristoforo Colombo” sarà conferito al Corpo delle Capitanerie di Porto – Guardia Costiera, per il contributo offerto, attraverso scoperte, ricerche o iniziative di valore tecnico, scientifico, sociale e umano, al progresso delle comunicazioni e alla collaborazione tra i popoli.
Il Premio Internazionale dello Sport andrà invece a Giovanni Malagò. Il premio viene conferito ad atleta, sportivo o ente, associazione o persona che abbia meglio contribuito nell’anno a valorizzare lo sport, considerato non solo nei suoi aspetti fisici ed agonistici, ma anche in quelli spirituali ed educativi.
Nel corso della cerimonia sarà inoltre presentata l’offerta dell’olio da parte del Comune di Riomaggiore, destinato alla lampada votiva che arde presso le ceneri di Cristoforo Colombo, custodite nel Faro di Santo Domingo.
La commemorazione si concluderà con il conferimento dell’onorificenza del Grifo Città di Genova a Mirella Alloisio, da parte della sindaca Silvia Salis, in riconoscimento del suo costante impegno nel rafforzare i valori e l’identità della comunità genovese.
cinturanza rinnovistica di grado 3 per la banda ximi numero 9 (i nuovi cinturini arrivati)
Alla fine, a ritirare i fantasmagorici cinturini per la mia povera Mi Band 9 castigata ci è andato mio padre ieri sera, che doveva fare la spesa con mia madre, e allora è passato al bloccatore Amazon… e ora si gode? Non saprei, a dire il vero, ma l’emergenza è sicuramente passata, e ora posso […]
octospacc.altervista.org/2025/…
cinturanza rinnovistica di grado 3 per la banda ximi numero 9 (i nuovi cinturini arrivati)
Alla fine, a ritirare i fantasmagorici cinturini per la mia povera Mi Band 9 castigata ci è andato mio padre ieri sera, che doveva fare la spesa con mia madre, e allora è passato al bloccatore Amazon… e ora si gode? Non saprei, a dire il vero, ma l’emergenza è sicuramente passata, e ora posso di nuovo indossare il mio orologino magico cinese come un orologio, anziché come una collanina strana come ho fatto per questi giorni — perché alla fine, in realtà, devo dire che quell’idea non è stata terribile, e almeno come ripiego base ha funzionato, riuscendo a contarmi quantomeno i passi e permettendomi di vedere l’ora senza ricorrere ad altri oggetti… 😯
Beh, i cinturini a questo giro sono ben 3 — …che sono in realtà pochini per essere venduti in blocco, ma questo passa il convento nel nostro sistema economico malato — perché, con un budget ridotto, ho preferito comprarne una serie di uguali, anziché uno solo con gli stessi soldi… Cioè, partendo dalla condizione di avere 0 cinturini da parte, è meglio comprarne qualcuno in più di soltanto 1, perché, se se ne compra solo uno, e poi pure quello si rompe, si è punto e a capo nella stessa vecchia rogna… cinturini simpatici più pazzi, che da soli costano abbastanza, li posso sempre comprare poi, magari su AliExpress addirittura. 👌E allora, boh! Solita marca assolutamente sconosciuta, e un totale di 9,99 euro… quindi, 10 euro… però con uno sconto del 5% al momento dell’ordine… quindi di 50 centesimi… quindi 9,49 euro… e ok, va: amazon.it/-/en/Msksjer-Compati…. Devo dire però che i colori nelle immagini non rispecchiano per niente bene quelli effettivi (mentre nei dettagli testuali dell’inserzione sono giusti, stranamente)… il bianco è più bianco, senza quella strana tinta giallognola che percepisco (e direi che è un bene), quello che sembra marrone è in realtà un rosa “secco” (gradevole, ringraziamo il cielo, altro che marrone), e il verde nella realtà mi appare più pallido (e questo è sia un pro che un contro a seconda dei casi, penso io). Non rendono al 100% nemmeno nelle mie foto, a dire il vero, anche se ho fatto il meglio che potevo, quindi si abbia pazienza… 🔪
Appena tolti dalla confezione ultraminimale che non permette una goduriosa esperienza di unboxing, però, questi cosi mi hanno fatto decisamente scoppiare il cervello, perché ci avrò messo, tra capire come fare a regolarlo in primo luogo, e poi come regolarlo per il mio braccio, non meno di 7 minuti buoni… Perché, a differenza di quelli che comprai per la Mi Band 3 l’anno passato, che semplicemente usano il velcro, questi sono di un qualche tessuto elastico (anche qui, dicono nylon, ma io che ne so) per permettere di essere tolti e rimessi, e per la regolazione usano un ferretto… che è però persino meno intuitivo di quelli che si usano negli zaini, quindi ecco; ma questo non è un problema del prodotto, è semplicemente un problema di skill (e quando mai…). Chissà se, col bonus di niente velcro, ma col malus dell’elasticità, possano durare di più o di meno… 🤥
L’importante è che, avendone provato uno da ieri sera fino a stamattina, e ovviamente ancora ce l’ho addosso in questo momento, sembrano boni. Di tutti, ho per ora messo quello rosa (e c’erano dubbi?), per cui casualmente una delle watchface che avevo già installate si abbina in misura sublime (anche se, ahinoi, in foto si nota poco), quindi l’esperienza mibandica è stata in un istante potenziata. È abbastanza comodo, lo percepisco più sottile e meno ingombrante di quello ufficiale di gomma che si è spaccato (e beh, in effetti lo è), e mi da decisamente molto meno fastidio di quello, quando sto alla scrivania… in tutti gli altri casi è semplicemente buono, non noto differenze, va benissimo!!! E chiaramente, grazie alla regolazione a ferretto anziché a buchi, e all’elasticità della stoffa, sta regolato perfettamente al polso, senza essere né troppo lasco né troppo stretto… Vabbé, dai, a questo punto è giusto dirlo: godo. 🥰
#acquisti #cinturini #MiBand #MiBand9
Fotovoltaico, considerazioni da fare prima
In questo video di alcuni mesi fa, Simone Angioni discute di alcune considerazioni e verifiche importanti da fare prima dell'installazione di un impianto fotovoltaico.
"Quanto produce davvero un impianto fotovoltaico da 6kW? E conviene installarlo? In questo video vi porto la mia esperienza concreta, con dati reali e qualche sorpresa (non sempre positiva...). Parliamo di produzione, ottimizzatori, auto elettrica, bollette e... un enorme problema di cui si parla poco: la sovratensione.
youtu.be/vicveAFBSw8
LineageOS 23
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It seems I'll get this update, nice!
Thanks a lot to the team and everyone involved.
Also, fuck google.
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Yapp...
I keep my blackberry key2....
And maybe unihertz will come with a titan slim 2, but still no lineageos
I buy the phone for the os these days.
It does mean getting a used phone from back a few years.
I think newer phones seem to make it harder maybe even impossible to unlock the bootloader.
I use a sony xa2 (2018) and it's only possible because sony still has a service to issue unlock codes for it. I think if sony turns that service off, then no more lineage os unless you already unlocked it.
They haven't released Android 16 QPR1 to AOSP yet, even though it came out on Pixels at the beginning of September. Normally the gap is ~1-2 days.
So yeah, a lot of custom rom devs are pretty bleak right now and honestly their concerns are pretty warranted given that it's Google we're talking about.
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Bleak, maybe, or maybe it will finally be the tipping point that starts pushing people away from the "Big Two" phone OS/platforms in pursuit of something truly open and free that isn't completely controlled by a privacy-invading tech giant.
Windows 11 has apparently finally triggered the seemingly never-to-be "Year of Linux on the Desktop" as people refuse to submit to Windows 11's telemetry and other misfeatures and repurpose old (and new) machines with Linux instead of letting Microsoft decide they're obsolete.
Maybe soon we'll have the year of the Linux phone too. Or at least be able to promote AOSP into a first-class citizen with its own phone support and designs and features and future, instead of simply being relegated to the role of a stagnant fork of de-Googled Android. It's time to go from soft fork to hard fork. Fuck Google, stop playing their games, and leave them behind.
They've been working towards killing it for 10+ years.
It does seem like we're nearing the completion of their goals
postmarketOS // real Linux distribution for phones
Aiming for a 10 year life-cycle for smartphonespostmarketOS
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You might be terminally sectarian if...
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Wait, you've actually done that? I just tried to imagine something ridiculously sectarian that I'd do if it wasn't just bloody counterproductive. And then when it made me laugh for half a minute straight, I posted it here.
So, then, what's the best distro? Obviously any real commie uses Linux, that's a given.
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Well I guess I was joking a bit but it would be in character for me to do exactly this and my friends would probably agree. ;)
The best distro in my book i hard to say. I use many distros on many different machines for different purposes. My main tower for gaming, hacking and work is tuxedo os (basically kubuntu by a german hardware vendor i work with), business laptop is pop!os which is also gaming ready, one laptop for educating people is mint, my little lenovo hackbook uses lubuntu.
So I guess, since they're literally all ubuntu derivatives but I hate ubuntu proper, there is no best, just many great ones for different purposes. I did btw daily debian on my tower bit it was frustratingly backwards and i did run postmarketOS on my phone for some time which is awesome but not quite daily drivable imho.
Whats your favorite distro?
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Honestly, you make good points. I was in the mood for "argue about silly nonsense til blue in face" when I replied to you, but, yeah, the thing about Linux distros is that there's a different best one for different use cases.
If we're talking favourite distro of all time conceptually, antiX, hands down. If we're talking daily driver I actually use, I like Linux Mint for that. Basic, yeah, but it Just Works and that's what I want and need. Honestly, I think I'm a lot like you - I like Debian derivatives, I don't have a good usecase for vanilla Debian though, but I'm not going to tell anyone preferring distros with a different base that they're wrong or get all sectarian about it, that's a waste of both our time and spoons at best and actively counterproductive at worst.
I do find the world of Official State Distros used/maintained by governments interesting from a political standpoint, especially in AES contexts, software sovereignty this, saving taxpayer resources that, yada yada yada, but I've never actually tried using any and don't have strong opinions on any of the actual state distros in question. Except Red Star, my opinion on that one is that "it's garbage and the versions we have here in the West are horribly out of date, don't use it."
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Okay, sure, every other month... Still way more failures per year than anything running Debian!
Updates? Now why would I want to do that, besides basic security updates? The whole point of a stable system is that nothing changes suddenly! I don't need up to date packages, I need a system that won't break unless I do something stupid to it (and probably won't break even when I do stupid shit to it)! And if you really need the latest packages, there are ways to do that, but most people really don't need the bleeding edge!
(I don't actually have strong opinions on this. I actually did have something derived from Arch on my initial pre switch list of distros to try. Just happened to like one that happens to be based on Debian better. (I use pure Debian about as much as you use pure Arch, I guess. Lol.) But being sectarian towards Arch users who act like you is fun.)
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Heh, well I'm still cool for using the bleeding edge! Guess what Debian? My packages break so yours don't! Erm, why use an easy installer and unstable leap repo when you can manually go through installing (please forget arch-install/arch-based distros exists) your system and be left wondering why your fstab is broken! Heh, I just know arch is for the cool tech enthusiasts like me~
(Me too, I actually used Kubuntu/Pop!_OS for a brief while before going Endeavour. For me, I wanted to have the flawed AUR, and since I was already trying to go further with KDE Plasma and Unstable Stuff, I thought why not leap to an Arch-based distro? I mean, besides the every month-or-so package warning breakage and learning to install multiple kernels because of.. the instability, lol. It's fun to act like a sectarian too, especially since I'm supposed to be associated with *those* Arch elitists if.. they still exist.)
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Hey, manual installation might teach you a lot about Linux, but at least installing my system took less than an hour and I have a functioning system with everything I need set up! While you Arch people almost always spent over an hour and a lot of effort, just to get a TTY booting, and you're still missing things even once you do get your choice of desktop environment and your graphical programs installed and running!
(Tbh, I kinda want the AUR sometimes. But, like, I don't need it, Arch has a reputation for being a pain and forcing you to really learn about Linux by causing you to constantly need to use odd terminal commands to fix problems, and most of my distro hopping urges in general are some combination of "think I understand Linux way more than I do" and "I don't really want a new distro, I just want a new desktop environment." And the funny thing is that so much of what actually seems interesting and new to me beyond just a different DE that's shiny and new, is based on Debian. Lol.)
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Il mito della lince-drago che riecheggia nelle grotte del lago Superiore - Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri
Il mito della lince-drago che riecheggia nelle grotte del lago Superiore - Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri
“Io… Noi… Aiutateci, Padre. Abbiamo infranto un Divieto per cercare agi e ricchezze nella vita terrena. Ora lo spirito segreto del Gichi-Gami è adirato con noi.Jacopo (Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri)
How close are we to solid state batteries for electric vehicles? - Ars Technica
Every few weeks, it seems, yet another lab proclaims yet another breakthrough in the race to perfect solid-state batteries: next-generation power packs that promise to give us electric vehicles (EVs) so problem-free that we’ll have no reason left to buy gas-guzzlers.These new solid-state cells are designed to be lighter and more compact than the lithium-ion batteries used in today’s EVs. They should also be much safer, with nothing inside that can burn like those rare but hard-to-extinguish lithium-ion fires. They should hold a lot more energy, turning range anxiety into a distant memory with consumer EVs able to go four, five, six hundred miles on a single charge.
And forget about those “fast” recharges lasting half an hour or more: Solid-state batteries promise EV fill-ups in minutes—almost as fast as any standard car gets with gasoline.
This may all sound too good to be true—and it is, if you’re looking to buy a solid-state-powered EV this year or next. Look a bit further, though, and the promises start to sound more plausible. “If you look at what people are putting out as a road map from industry, they say they are going to try for actual prototype solid-state battery demonstrations in their vehicles by 2027 and try to do large-scale commercialization by 2030,” says University of Washington materials scientist Jun Liu, who directs a university-government-industry battery development collaboration known as the Innovation Center for Battery500 Consortium.
Indeed, the challenge is no longer to prove that solid-state batteries are feasible. That has long since been done in any number of labs around the world. The big challenge now is figuring out how to manufacture these devices at scale, and at an acceptable cost.
How close are we to solid state batteries for electric vehicles?
Superionic materials promise greater range, faster charges and more safety.Knowable Magazine (Ars Technica)
Para que Soberania não seja slogan vazio | Outras Palavras
Para que Soberania não seja slogan vazio | Outras Palavras
Em palavras, a resistência do governo Lula a Trump é valorosa. Mas na política de comércio externo, e na ausência de planejamento, o Brasil segue prisioneiro de dogmas neoliberais arcaicos, reprimarizado e submisso a acordos colonialistasPaulo Nogueira Batista Jr e Manoel Casado (Outras Palavras)
'CDC is over': RFK Jr. lays off over 1,000 employees in Friday night massacre
'CDC is over': RFK Jr. lays off over 1,000 employees in Friday night massacre
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. laid off more than 1,000 CDC scientists, doctors and health officials Friday night amid the shutdown as Trump administration RIFs continueBrandy Zadrozny (MSNBC)
Pokemon Legends Z-A
It seems that we're getting close to a leak. Pokemon project has an update file available and from what I've seen, some people have game dumps but no one wants to leak it yet.
I've played the first two gen games when they came out. This one looks pretty interesting too. I'm excited to try it.
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Kind of wish they'd do a cross platform game (that you can play at home). I don't want to buy a Switch just for Pokemon.
Edit: and yes, I'm aware of which community this is, but after GBA I never had much luck with these games, and haven't kept up. Not sure how functional they are (especially on Linux).
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Nothing is worth trillions,
There is things worth trillions. Like full countries, and the largest pension funds and social security funds. Having a single company be comparable to those massive collections of people is insane, and it's because they think it can replace workers--when it can't, not yet, and not for a long time
Production must equal Consumption plus investment.
An excess of production leads to companies closing down.
Reducing consumption (via getting rid of workers, reducing wages, etc.) will lead to an imbalance that must correct itself.
This can be forestalled by private debt, government debt or exporting the surplus but this is unsustainable.
The most optimistic take I've seen: AI is a drain on the entire economy that sucks up all investment and this is why the rest of the economy is basically in a recession. Once the bubble pops, investors will flood back into the real economy and correct the problem.
I'm not optimistic.
I'll play devil's advocate here: agreed that the rest of the (US) economy seems to be slowing or shrinking but remains buoyed by AI / Mag 7 stocks. That said, a lot of the investment reflected above is in data centers and hardware (Nvidia, Coreweave, Oracle, Microsoft).
The bubble pop will hinge on whether there is value in this data center buildup beyond AI. Unless everyone starts paying fistfulls of cash for AI chat, these companies may be able to find another use for all that compute and avoid a total crash. That could be a target for all that investment you mention.
The hardware is specialized for chatbots, it's not just something they can plug-and-play for other use cases. That means using it for other computing tasks is even less efficient per kWh and per litre of water, which will make it hard to justify the resource requirements.
Surely some of this hardware can find new life, but assets will be stranded.
I feel money itself is our new Dutch disease. We live and die according to the flux of money in the global economy/stock markets...
Are there any theories like that out there? Because money start to no longer function correctly IMO.
Looks more like the dot com bubble to me.
Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?
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Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?
Yes and no.
Yes in the sense that we have a lot more "fad" economies. There is something new so that needs to be EVERYTHING and the market course corrects, often at the cost of hardship for many.
But "no" in the sense of what "bubbles" tend to refer to. Things like the Japanese Bubble Economy where it causes (I forget if it is officially one but) recessions and even depressions.
The AI Bubble is not going to do that (on its own...). Yeah, a LOT of companies are going to be left holding the bag when they realize LLMs can't solve all problems for them AND manifest a Cyber Stana Katic to give them a blowie while it does that. But what will they be left with?
- A LOT of "prompt engineers": This is bad because that is going to be a LOT of people who, increasingly, went to school to get a degree in something with very little utility. That said... Art History majors have been showing us how to do that for decades and at least they did something they loved on their way to service industry jobs.
- For the companies that gutted their workforce over the past few years: A need to rapidly hire talented workers who don't require ChatGPT to do their job: This is REALLY good for the people who have been hurting and should actually lead to a lot of job mobility... for the old hats who predated this fad
- For the companies that purchased hardware: A lot of edge computing devices are going to be of questionable value. But for the folk who "just" bought a shit ton of GPUs from Daddy Jensen? They have a shit ton of GPUs they can either sell for cheap (not horrible) or repurpose (good)
Don't get me wrong. There is going to be upheaval and it is going to be bad. But it is also important to remember that drawings like the above are actively misleading and bordering on manipulative. Because basically all the biggies, except OpenAI, have non-AI uses. Oracle ballooned massively because of the OpenAI injection but... they are still god damned Oracle. Same with nVidia who, when they aren't powering every LLM on the planet, are also one of the companies that makes all the cards that power stuff like computer vision and the like in cars and what not.
Because... remember the dot com bubble? Remember how basically the entire world still runs on The Internet? It was just a case of rebalancing and pivoting for the most part.
All that said... the US is in a really bad way because the fascists have been increasingly gutting the economy and stopping basically any industry that involves manufacturing or communicating with external countries. We are gonna have a massive stock market crash when OpenAI et al pops...
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Who is paying? If every workplace needs a $100 or even $1000 per month license then those values are justified.
The people using the AI are training the AI. In 2 years, no competitor can enter the market because they don't know what to do.
Only Nvidia could be overvalued because at some point, OpenAI can design their own chip.
1) it's not AI, regardless of how many idiots repeat that bullshit. It is machine learning with glorified pattern recognition.
2) Why would anyone want to enter the market? It has no practical use that justifies the energy consumption. Because it is not targeted, for every individual application, there are much more efficient ways to accomolish the same/better results for much less energy.
It's good enough to answer most questions and it will only get better. Even if it is not AI it is a tool that knowledge workers use and will need to stay competitive.
And looking at the size of EU investments, only China will build competitors so these companies will own the market.
It’s good enough to answer most questions and it will only get better.
Reality indicates the opposite.
Even if it is not AI it is a tool that knowledge workers use and will need to stay competitive.
People who use machine learned systems to handle "knowledge" will dilute actual knowledge with billions of factual errors and fuck up mankinds knowledge base.
They're all paying each other. That's literally the point this image is trying to express.
What's especially insane is that the companies that are actually providing the service to end users, i.e. Coreweave et al, are not the ones seeing massively inflated prices, contrary to your point about the monthly fees justifying the higher evaluation.
Crypto had it's black monday.
The fall may have been accelerated by portfolio insurance hedging (using computer-based models to buy or sell index futures in various stock market conditions) or a self-reinforcing contagion of fear
Algorithms and feedback loops gummed up all the crypto exchanges and liquidity disappeared.
The crypto tide went out and we all saw who wasn't wearing any shorts.
So how dangerous is that really? I assume one day we’ll finally see investors saying, “Nah, that’s a bubble. I’m not gonna see any returns from those companies - I’m selling.” Then stock prices will fall, and some investors will lose money by selling for less than they bought. After that, AI unicorns will start to lose funding and close their businesses, laying off people.
But will I - a person who does not work in the AI industry and has not invested in AI companies - be affected by this?
Were you affected by the dotcom bubble?
Maybe the remaining tech companies, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, might raise prices of their products to cover the losses.
Yes, you absolutely will be effected.
In a general way, the plebs always do the heavy lifting - a universal truth since the dawn of time.
More specifically, your pension / 401k will lose a heap of money.
As the economy contracts there will be lay offs.
That means loan defaults, et cetera.
Pensions in the stock market are the hostage, and are being used as an excuse against regulations.
Fuck all of that.
You are white knighting the poor to protect your own ass(ets).
Trickle down economics is bullshit
No, actually when people stop buying things and companies close down, I'm pretty sure the employees of said companies lose their jobs.
It sucks but that's capitalism for you.
But if AI pops then that doesn't mean that people will stop buying things.
Very few people are employed by the AI industry. Most people's income won't change. Most people's consumption won't change.
Poor people don't have money to spend on much else than food and housing. Anyone with money is going to have stocks in these companies.
Also the AI industry is Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia, AMD and a few others. They employ quite a few people.
So we agree. Poor/ middle class people only hold stocks for retirement. AI bubble popping has no effect on them. The are exactly as they were pre-AI bubble.
Only rich people care about the current stock values. Only rich people are scared of an AI bubble. Only rich people are attempting the "too big to fail" FUD. Big Tech are not banks. There is no knock on effect.
AWS have now had enough outages that any serious company has migration plans and redundancies. If Google fails then the infrastructure stays running even if the current shareholders lose their shirts. The employees that are needed to bring in cash will not lose their jobs.
You are talking yourself into trickle down economics. There is now plenty of evidence that this isn't true.
There is no need to protect rich people's wealth so that the poor don't suffer
They will loose their jobs, because the economy slowed down and nobody is buying anything and their jobs aren't needed anymore
No.
The AI debt creation and investment is not of any benefit to the working class (except for a few construction workers). These data centers don't create 1000s of jobs. Windsurf has 250 employees. Cursor has 30.
This AI bubble is not affecting general income, only assets. As it doesn't hit income, it doesn't hit consumption. Poor people earn and consume. They are asset poor.
A pop in the AI bubble will damage the billionaires, but not the poor.
35% of the S&P is made up of stocks in the top 7 US tech firms. The stock market is extremely skewed towards these 7 firms, and a large part of their current evaulation is made up from speculation of potential AI returns. When the bubble bursts, everyone who is invested in these firms will feel it.
This wasn't always true. When the bubble bursts the S&P investors will revert back to a more realistic valuation. AI bursting won't affect LLY, JPM, WMT, COST etc.
Nothing of value has been lost. People just have the wrong anchor points.
As I said, the top 10% of Americans make up 50% of consumption, can't find a confirmation but I think that's the highest in modern history.
These 10% are consuming their income, not their wealth. An AI stock crash will have little to no effect on their income. (Except for the small proportion actually employed in AI research).
I agree, but that's just another factor, and it will also cause the stock market to crash, among other things.
Also, the worst thing is he won't get American factories to be built. Maybe one or two, but no one in the right mind is going to relocate large amounts of manufacturing to the US when tariffs are coming in and out of effect all the time. Tariffs only work for increasing manufacturing if companies believe they will last a long time. If companies think a tariff will last a month or a year, there's no point in making a factory that will take two, three years to build and then five years to become net profitable, because by the time the factories finished and the tariffs are gone, everyone that still has a factory outside of the US will just out compeat that factory with lower prices.
Your pension is tied to these companies stocks. I can pretty much guarantee that "your" pension fund owns quite a few of these stocks.
But, and this is the important part, that isn't your pension. It is the pension for those that are retired right now. There is no saved stack of money that you earned during your life thats waiting for you. Unless there is an equal amount of tax paying workers by the time you retire, you wont be getting that pension.
pension
I'm not sure how old you think most of us are, but I don't think pensions are a common retirement vehicle anymore, and haven't been for a while. 401k would probably be the modern equivalent, and it's still running on the stock market for the majority of its life prior to beginning to withdraw.
Pension is the correct English term
I don't think it is.
A pension implies benefits are distributed to the person in retirement, usually with some fixed amount per month. My understanding is that in the UK, defined contribution plans are required to be invested largely in annuities by retirement, which satisfies that, whereas in the US, 401ks don't have such restrictions. So a 401k could be depleated well before death, or be passed on to children as inheritance, unlike an annuity. There are required minimum distributions, but they don't kick in until your 70s.
If 401ks switched to a defined benefit plan at retirement, I could see calling it a pension. But since they're not, I think that's misleading, and employer sponsored plan makes more sense.
Right. OP's point is that they call both defined benefit (i.e. what some union people get) and defined contribution (i.e. 401k and whatnot) a "pension." My understanding is that a "pension" is a specific amount of money paid monthly in retirement (used to also just be the wage for certain jobs, not a retirement benefit).
A quick search yielded "defined contribution pensions", which seems to be a mix: your contributions are invested during employment, and then you get a fixed payment in retirement.
With a 401k, there's no fixed withdrawal in retirement unless you set one up, the only thing is a mandatory minimum withdrawal at a certain age (73?). My understanding is that wouldn't be considered a pension since the withdrawal isn't guaranteed or fixed, and you can withdraw everything if you so choose.
Maybe I'm wrong and a pension is a looser term there, but my understanding is that a pension needs to have a guaranteed benefit in retirement.
Not true of UK defined contribution, you can do what you want just like a 401k, though it may be disadvantagous for tax purposes.
It's pretty normal in British English to use pension as a synonym for retirement account, though I can see why you don't like that.
Really? This is what I see with a simple search:
When you’re able to take your pension, you can choose how and when you want the money. This usually includes the option of taking up to 25% as a tax-free lump sum and using the rest to get a guaranteed or variable income.
Looking more into it, I guess it's similar?
The 401k typically doesn't offer the guaranteed income, though I suppose some plans could offer annuities. You can choose to take fixed payments though, but there's no guarantee how long that will last. I don't know what the options are in the UK, but in the US, you can do whatever you like, as long as you withdraw the minimum (percentage of assets based on your age, starting at 73).
I see a pension as having some kind of guaranteed benefit. A 401k doesn't have that, so it doesn't count.
Interesting. I think people here would agree Social Security is a state pension, we just only call it by its name.
A pension specifically refers to a plan that makes consistent payments throughout retirement and stops at death (or may pass to the surviving spouse until their death). Anything else is a retirement plan if it's tax sheltered until some age, or an investment account if it's not.
I hear annuities are unpopular here, most seem to prefer either a dividend strategy, or sell securities as needed to cover whatever Social Security doesn't.
About half of the US population is enrolled in a pension even today...
unpri.org/private-retirement-s…
Private retirement systems and sustainability: United States
An analysis of the $27,570bn private retirement system in the US and how policy and structural characteristics affect sustainability.PRI
All the economy is a big circle if you draw the circle big enough.
Actually scratch that. There is an economy that is not just one big circle jerk, such as the development of new technologies or the terraforming of deserts into fertile land; as neither of these things ends the way it started; it brought lasting change, and that is true progress.
Actually did you see my presentation that i made about this recently?
The point is to convince the americans to invest in new technologies.
To all those who say that human spaceflight is impossible:
Europeans caused massive death in the Americas. I do not think we should replicate that model.
Also, the chance is small, but there might have been a separate biogenesis (beginning of life) on Mars. Sending humans with our dirty microbiome would almost certainly wipe any evidence of that, and possibly cause an extinction of an entirely separate form of life, which would be a crime even more horrible than the extinctions and genocides which we have caused so far.
Let's just leave Mars alone until we've studies it more and are certain there is no life. Colonizing the moon seems challenging enough for a couple centuries....
There is no good economic reason to colonize other planets. We have plenty of space here on earth, with conditions already much more hospitable than that of mars - deserts, for example. The resources needed to turn these into habitable land is so much less than the resources required to make even a tiny part of Mars inhabitable (i.e. establish a colony that relies on life support systems) it's insane to go for Mars first. The reason colonizing Mars is talked about at all is because a rich white dude wants to go to Mars, since deserts are too boring for his spoiled ass.
I actually agree that it would be cool if we went to Mars, not to colonize it but just to be there. But comparing it to white pillaging of the Americas is just incorrect. Mars is not inhabitable by humans, the Americas very much were. The external resources needed to colonize America were zero, in fact pillaging local lands meant a lot of resources for the Empire. Mars is going to be a much more expensive and much less profitable endeavor.
Actually I replied to you before, pointing out the very same fallacy: lemmy.ml/post/33824723/2013491…
Settling mars is a centuries long undertaking. You basically have to nurture a whole ecosystem from scratch... that would be a brutally difficult and lengthy process in the best of conditions. But of course, these aren't the best conditions. We aren't doing particularly well with the ecosystem we've already got.
If you want a historical project, then look to balancing modern industry within the planet's biosphere. It's a prerequisite to anything happening on mars.
I think it's hard to definitely call something a bubble until it pops.
The definition of a bubble goes something along the lines of market prices exceeding the intrinsic value of the investment they represent, which may be true here?
If you want to read more about this the rough name for these companies was "the magnificent seven" a year or so ago when I last looked at this. A quick Google suggests represent about a third of the SNP 500's value now and have a cape ratio (cyclicly adjusted price to earnings) of ~37 compared to 15-20 being normal.
Edit: the above baseline is incorrect; see sugar_in_tea's comment for a more accurate baseline and some interesting counterpoints
I can't find a good numerical source for the correlated risk within this group, and I suspect analyzing it is very difficult. Given they all used to be a lot more diversified in the past but now a large % of their valuation is predicated on AI historical correlation analysis probably fails. But the diagram linked here suggests it's probably bad to put all your money in these companies. (Or even a 3rd if you are in an s&p 500 index tracker 😶)
Like, none of this definitively says this is a bubble, since if it were possible to divine that the bubble would immediately pop, but it does suggest there is a strong likelihood we are seeing a bubble.
~37 compared to 15-20 being normal.
15-20 was normal for the 100 years ending 40-50 years ago. But of we look at the last 40 years or so, the CAPE has been higher, suggesting that we don't know how what "normal" looks like going forward. More people are buying stocks than ever before due to retirement plans and poor bond yields, which pushes up the PE.
So whether ~40 is high for a PE going forward isn't clear. The CAPE hit ~45 in the 2000 crash, and reverted to ~20 after the crash, yet the 2008 crash only hit ~26 and crashed down to ~14 and quickly bounced back to ~20. The 2008 had little to do with CAPE and more to do with corruption in the banking industry, whereas 2000 was almost purely oversized hype in the burgeoning tech market.
So is the normal range 20-30? Idk. Maybe 20 is actually low going forward, it's unclear. Either way, 40 isn't as outlandish as it was in the 2000s, and that pushed up to 45 before crashing.
there is a strong likelihood we are seeing a bubble.
Agreed. But if you drop out of the market and invest in other stuff, you would miss whatever the rest of the runup will do before it bursts, which could leave you worse off than someone just investing in the entire market by market cap. Ot could continue to run for 10-20 years, or it could pop this year, it's impossible to know since it relies heavily on investors continuing to believe the hype and companies continuing to have something to back up that hype.
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 39.95, a change of +0.09 from previous market close.Multpl
But of we look at the last 40 years or so, the CAPE has been higher, suggesting that we don’t know how what “normal” looks like going forward.
As you listed, crashes lead to sub 20 PEs. Mag7 PEs is not representative of Russel 2000 PEs. High PEs expect high growth for long period. Reality checks usually happen, but PE's are not universally high. Just with the oligarchs with White House guest passes.
crashes lead to sub 20 PEs
The 2000 crash didn't though, it was just over 20 at the trough. Jan 2003 was 21. That was almost as high as the peak in the 60s, and higher than the moment before Black Monday. So the market reverted to a mean that would be considered a peak just 20-30 years prior. 15 used to be a good marker for "average," and now that's the marker for the Great Recession.
Crashes used to lead to sub-10s, and now they crash to 15-20. The market has fundamentally changed with 401ks and IRAs.
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 39.95, a change of +0.09 from previous market close.Multpl
I know right? It’s not a bubble if there are transactions between the different companies in an industry. Nothing here shows that these investments are self-supporting circular, nor that all of this is propping up the economy.
Circle != bubble
I dont think we are in a bubble and I think all the media posts about it are just trying to make people sell their shares.
Sure there is no obvious profit yet but there will be. Once people start using AI in their phones and ask it questions, everything from baking to coding becomes way easier since its an interactive conversation, not a search result.
People will pay for that convenience since its a huge downside to not have access to it. Search results now seem very limited to me since I cant find out more about what its saying.
Its not interactive. Did you read my comment?
If you dont understand why people are going to pay for that, I dont know what to tell you.
Thats literally the entire thing about Ai, you can have a conversation, not static text and links.
The technology (at least with current methodologies) is flawed: that's why people are warning of the bubble bursting. We can't properly scale LLMs on our current grid in the same capacity as China. Our technologies are also incredibly energy-intensive compared to their technologies.
There is no intelligence, the hallucinations are likely fundamental, the cases of people being given dangerous or harmful advice are rising, human AI psychosis is a real concern, the sycophancy/bias confirmation is still present, and major actors in the AI space are existentially afraid of any form of regulation of the technology/industry (which does not signal confidence).
Also, it's critical to factor in the whole copyright issue with training data... one domino is all it takes to collapse the whole thing.
These things will evolve and change and improve, as always. When the first car was invented, there wasnt any proper roads for cars. Things change.
Copyright issues are not going to be an issue at all when entire countries are trying to get first to AGI. Nobody cares about that.
Hallucinations are flaws that will eventually be fixed, and the more gpu power that is available, the easier it will be to fix.
Are you personally invested in the AI/LLM space? I'm wondering why you chose to engage with very few of my arguments. Is your account a troll account? If you're not trolling: re-read. I will not engage further until you adequately address my points.
I was pretty clear: there is no intelligence. AGI is an absolute pipe dream and it will also be a far cry from actual intelligence if you look into it. Hallucinations won't be fixed unless the technology evolves - adding more GPU power won't be able to fix it.
The copyright theft is an extreme issue, regardless your hand-waving of it. Copyright law reform is not perceivably on the table. Major companies are caught red-handed stealing and these companies have no intention of compensating the rights-holders they stole from.
I think you are overestimating the amount people will pay for convenience or cling to their old ways.
Did e-readers kill the bookstore? Some people will always prefer to cook out of a book or dive into docs to write code.
Or look at the modern streaming landscape. In the beginning there was basically Netflix and everyone was fine paying that monthly fee for the convenience of streaming basically everything. Now we have 20+ vendors all charging for some subset of content. And we have seen a corresponding loss in subscribers as people hit the limit of what they are willing to pay for convenience.
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Are there many left where you are? The UK has one plant left, and we had to take it over so it didn't close completely.
I guess it's quite handy to have a steel plant if war breaks out and you're not relying on China for it all...
Except it's 17x larger & will take the entire US GDP with it.
fortune.com/2025/10/07/data-ce…
Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says
Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?Nick Lichtenberg (Fortune)
The problem with this theory is that it assumes Republicans will give up power to allow the Democrats to govern.
The part of Republicans blaming Democrats is spot on.
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I won't touch the entertainement / Hollywood reference to soft power as that deserves a discussion in its own right.
But as someone who works with ... or used to work with US diplomats abroad on a daily basis, I would urge you to educate yourself and people around you about the myriad of activities that US diplomats are engaged in. Contrary to conventional 'wisdom', US foreign policy consists of a lot more than bombing the Middle East and supporting Israel. Nobody talks or knows about all of the other things but I can tell you for a fact that American diplomats were (and in some cases still are) helping a lot of people in Eastern Europe. We were helping a lot of people. Shelters for the homeless, schools and museums for kids, whole new campuses for universities, orphanages, adn the list goes on, and on. There's a reason why over 75% of state department employees working abroad are not republicans. They are not the people most think they are.
We were doing good work with the Americans here. We were helping children, we were exposing corrupt oligarchs. We were in this fight together, not just in Eastern Europe but all over the world. Yes, even the US Marines stationed at Constanza and Novo Selo, ready to fight should the Russkies anything, deserve respect. As one marine told me recently "Don't worry, come what may, we will stay and fight with you".
Then everything changed this year. My old American friends were replaced with incompetent political commissars sent by the new idiocratic regime in DC.
The US marines are still here though, and they are still ready to die. I'm just not sure if its worth it anymore.
TLDR: Educate yourself and resist the temptation to parrot oversimplified narratives. Just because you only know about the bad and don't care to learn about the good, doesn't mean the latter doesn't exist.
Edit: in an attempt to preempt incoming windmills: I detest Trump, Netanyahu and imperialism in general. But that does not mean anything American (or whatever nationality) should be presented as black and white. There are 340 million Americans. Each one of them here is proof that America is not black and white, and neither are its citizens.
Let me guess though, Russia doing the same things is just pure evil or propaganda. Because guess what? Countries don't do any of the things you mention out of Christian charity, they do it for power and control.
GTFOH with your soft pedaling of this bullshit.
helping a lot of people in Eastern Europe
to support Israel and war on Russia
Soft power is always more effective than hard threats, because the corrupt CIA stooges pillaging their economies and contributing to destruction of humanity do so with the dignity that threats and bribes are secret and unobvious sycophancy to the US empire. Soft power means that your pawns are not explicitly exposed as your owned pawns.
That your job makes the colonization mission more effective, all glory to hypno Trump, is a cheaper and more direct path to complete capitulation by the colonial "governor generals".
People need housing, no one needs this AI crap. Even in boring engineering jobs using tools that solved problems decades ago, we are getting AI shoveled in left and right in places no one needs or wants it. And calling old features "AI" is also another problem.
And now these stupid "barking bears attacking fat sleeping people" videos are everywhere, and people seem to think they're real.
We should focus on natural intelligence first, that is to say each other, and education...
Oh and the headline should read "Every day", "everyday" is an adjective, like an everyday occurence.
Unfortunately Lemmy is rife with CSAM too, but the larger instances have done a pretty great job eliminating it.
Smaller instances still get dumped on sometimes.
Edit: actually it feels like it’s been a year or so since any CSAM spam events, so good job everyone
Yeah, unless you prevent image uploads it's possible and easy for someone to put that shit on a drive you own which then means you're technically distributing and harboring it.
Scary stuff
Too many people equate AI with LLMs only. LLMs are mostly bubbled bullshit, with a few limited use cases. But AI is a much broader topic. The really scary AI is the stuff we hear little to nothing about.
People also forget how dramatically tech can advance over time. Spoiled impatient Americans in particular want a finished product or they quickly write it off as "garbage". They forget every product we own and use was once "garbage".
If Lemmy is supposed to be the place where the most tech savvy people in the interest congregate
Says who? Mostly feels more like sales than R&D here. Which kinda fits with these pitches.
Feels more like the brick layer is equivalent to someone paid to create training data. You absolutely would want to ask the architects and engineers researching no ways in housing and construction. Not that they know what avenues of research will work out, but they do know the avenues of research.
No one expected the splash that LLMs or image diffusion models would make. Years later, the conversations on Lemmy are still dominated by people who still haven't looked up how they work.
GPTs completely nuked the whole field of natural language processing (NLP). People had dedicated years of their lives to solving tiny aspects of that. That got solved practically over night. Sentiment analysis? Just ask the chatbot. Some of the seemingly smart people who make seemingly informed criticisms of LLMs are NLP guys, who just can't let go of their old ideas.
From the entry for "zaibatsu" on Wikipedia:
Under the Allied occupation after the surrender of Japan, a partially successful attempt was made to dissolve the zaibatsu. Many of the economic advisors accompanying the SCAP administration had experience with the New Deal and were highly suspicious of monopolies and restrictive business practices, which they felt to be both inefficient, and to be a form of corporatocracy (and thus inherently anti-democratic).
The only difference? The zaibatsu actually diversified their operations.
Many of the economic advisors accompanying the SCAP administration had experience with the New Deal and were highly suspicious of monopolies and restrictive business practices
Your country was very different then.
They’ll just get repurposed for whatever extremely computationally intensive thing some computer engineer comes up with.
these are for AI, purpose built bespoke solutions to LLM problems. they'll age like fine piss.
Is that because they're so focussed on growth and advancement though?
Right now there's no incentive for efficiency. The focus is using venture capital to grab market share by implementing new products.
If suddenly everyone realised that the new iterations are more costly without any new functionality, the focus would switch and it might be worthwhile.
Right now, you can buy a $500 GPU, and run an LLM locally that can help you draft documents or code or transcribe audio. If that were scaled up to a subscription service surely it could be reasonably priced, yet profitable.
If all of that were the case... why aren't they ALREADY profitable? There are only 2 companies in the actual LLM/AI space, OpenAI and Anthropic, and OpenAI is already so dominant that Anthropic is a noncontender. Since that is the case, why aren't either of them profitable? If they were, they'd be screaming about it constantly; Altman would be on stage every single goddamn day boasting about it; OpenAI would be posting monthly, if not WEEKLY profit reports, just to show how much money they were making as """The Future™️"""; public investors would be POURING IN like nothing else mattered!!!
So where is it? Where's the profit? Where are the reports and press conferences, the investor statements and the IPO's? Where's the goddamn money, Lebowski???
And don't say they're in the "growth stage" or whatever. 4 years in and a TRILLION DOLLARS LATER, there's no profit to be seen, no remarkable products to use, nothing of substance except billions burned building bespoke data centers and polluting the planet. The whole AI """industry""" is a lie.
They're in a growth stage.
I don't agree with them, but venture capitalists believe they are inventing a god, and that the first to achieve it will enjoy never before seen power, control, and ultimately wealth.
If you have a stable job with good pay or good upward mobility in the company potential and don't have periods of unemployment, if it has a 401k, you're 401k is being invested while the market is down. When unemployment is high, the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate much lower to try and stimulate the economy. That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs that pay well enough can take out loans and/or refinance their current loans to do better than they were.
When the market recovers, you've had years of experience that you can now use for job hopping at more senior level roles when the job market recovers. Also a lot of late career people end up consulting for companies large and small with inexperienced staff. Those that didn't fare well in a career during a market downturn, it's either stagnation or hardship after hardship
It doesn't necessarily have to be office/lab work. I know people that grinded the past decade+ in restaurants until an owner would trust them to manage a restaurant including all the supplies and payroll and then trust them enough to partner on a another restaurant and then that be their ticket to financial security. Some in their 30s, some 40s, some 50s. It's a grind but at least they didn't end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
This is a really odd take.
you're 401k is being invested while the market is down
Sure but you just lost half your 401k, including half of what was invested while the market was overpriced.
When unemployment is high, [...] That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs [...] can take out loans
Yes, but lenders also tighten their criteria during these times because even a stable job is dramatically less stable during a recession or depression. It's very difficult to borrow money in an economic downturn.
When the market recovers, you've had years of experience
Sure but if the market didn't collapse you would still have those years of experience. During a collapse fewer people will have consistent employment.
It's a grind but at least they didn't end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
Not sure where you were going with this part.
The universal economic truth is, in times of economic uncertainty the working class does the heavy lifting.
We can't prevent the bubble burst. We can hope it happens sooner rather than later but the bubble is baked in. So what companies and individuals can to is basically buy up their detritus at bargain prices. And then use them to make better, more solid companies that do not require $3T investment while showing no fucking profit.
But what will be left after it bursts?
Affordable GPUs? Less pushy AI commercials?
The wealthy will just move on to the next thing to inflate. Capitalists don't work. They don't care about anything other than ROI.
These valuations cannot be tied to ROI, even using Olympic level mental gymnastics. The market would collapse in a millisecond. They are tied to a fictional dimension 78 years in the future where everyone decided to work overtime without collapsing and being four times as focused while the planet magically starts healing itself and no major disaster happens and all wars escalated without destroying any infrastructure or upsetting any populations and the authoritarian revenge hypercapitalist disasterpiece currently boiling over in the global standard host country suddenly is unanimously accepted as a new way of life without a single adverse reactions or any systematic issues and a spontaneous miraculous salvation from the diseases and famine it has maliciously developed due to the Christian god both existing and subscribing to the polar opposite moral and ethical alignment that the elite privileged promille has hallucinated to fit a reality that also somehow pivoted from a complete mass psychosis into firm truth by way of some unforseen quirk in the laws of physics that every great mind and scientists missed that magically flip childish commercial folly into concrete reality without requiring effort and being the first consciousless entity to achieve autonomy and an ability to replicate exponentially without consuming resources and a renneissance of unity appears around a unilateral decision to kill brown skinned people that agree to live and reproduce in the most efficient manner for the single purpose of feeding that slaughtering machine and producing goods and resources for the machine and for the now sanctioned debauchery that the new religion has prescribed all of our species to perform
Which as you might imagine is more than a little stretch
They lucked into it. They made their cards for gamers, and various groups, AI researchers, bitcoin miners and others, discovered that they those gamer GPUs were really good for other tasks too. I think it took a while before Nvidia started making specialised cards for those purposes.
I can't really blame them for serving that market that they just lucked into. I can and will blame them for their terrible Linux support.
This only got downvotes in another thread. There is far worse that can happen than an AI bubble.
People get distracted over the fate that the pure speculative frenzy could be an AI bubble, and the harm to the hapless speculators and banksters could have a minor impact on the rest of the economy.
Reality is far worse than an AI bubble. It is a US mission for a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel that is too big to fail. Bubble in AI investments becomes unlikely, but total destruction of rest of US economy/prosperity becomes assured when the "plebs able to eat in America bubble" bursts is a sacrifice that a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel is willing to make.
If Americans are still able to afford to eat, then China or Iran wins.
please be more specific in what you don't understand. I guess that...
fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel
US government needs AGI for US military supremacy. That is Skynet (in Terminator movies, this is the military program to install AI in all the computers, and then AI chooses genocide nuclear launch). It is for Israel's benefit, because that is who owns US government. That it be fossil fuel powered, serves another key US oligarchy. Skynet for disinformation/sediction detection purposes just as much of a threat than its use for nuclear genocide.
Regardless of whether datacenters will make money solving business and individual problems or boosting productivity, the US will keep investing in order to get Skynet. You can be correct that "frontier datacenter LLM models" will not make money, but still lose on financial bets validating that idea. Instead of an AI bubble bursting, even more money chasing Skynet will come with Austerity for rest of population. The "valuation bubble" only pops when investor money flowing in dries up. It may only dry up after the collapse of the US.
It's the part where you say that Jews want skynet for world supremacy.
That's the "what?" part.
Yes, contemporary economy and free markets are so imaginary now that cascading effects and bubble pops like 2008 are very unlikely. American stock market in particular is so far off reality (even before AI boom) that it's basically a video game with no actual relevancy to true gross product. While China/Russia is a dictatorship with no representation of reality at all and can easily hide the burden of bad economic policies in the obedient peasant class.
So we have dictatorship with imaginary worlds vs "free markets" living in their own imaginary simulation. Economy is all made up now and cascades are basically impossible because that requires rationality.
The problem isn't the imaginary market, which I agree with the description. Its the leveraging of debt, to gamble in the market, which is what low interest rates enable.
And yes, our interest rates are VERY low still. I'm looking at some ARM packages right now, and their max lifetime interest rates are on par with what a typical mortgage was about a decade ago.
Idk if ghost city thing was a bubble tho.
China used planned infrastructure and bunch of confused journalists in US were like "what kind of government plans for housing of their citizens"
There are always bad actors in the system (see: hedge funds). But bubble? It can be argued that Ordos (the ghost city) was build too early, but it's filling in nicely. From 30k in 2009 to 2.000.000+ in 2020.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordos_Ci…
On the other hand noone ever build a damn whole modern city before for the people, so I'm not surprised they jumped the gun.
I'm sorry, I'm a little bit lost. I do agree that investment in owning rentals should be forbidden (and if city needs rental units they should be owned by the city).
I do not agree that "ghost cities" were built for speculative purposes. Speculants were buying them like crazy, yes, but the actual need for housing in regions planned (expected?) to undergo urbanization is real and the buildings were fulfilling that purpose.
Yeah, my server end with ml so I must be a tankie, makes sense.
It cannot be that I genuinely appreciate long term vision policies. I must be a tankie. And you're right, those cities were not needed, and planned urbanization must be planned only 2 years ahead because everything else is speculative bubble made for speculation.
All the projection.. You'll notice I didn't say you were a tankie, because you obviously are young counter culture honeymoon phase marxist. Please do me a favor and understand that actual communism will never occur either in society or your own philosophy mature, until you recognize flaws cannot be ignored. None of the actual reform leaders were ignorant of that. I also never mentioned any resemblance of urban planning. That the only path to actual societal renaissance and your own personal growth is to understand that if you overreact to something bad such as capitalism you are against the cause. Not for it. You are the breaks on developing real thoughts and ideas, and the reason is simple outrage. The most provenly useless strategy when facing adversity, completely identifiable by anyone past this first easily avoided step in processing and eventually developing personal and unique rational thought about the issue.
Objectively, it was bad to build unhabitable skyskrapers. It's humanity. When you attribute it to your ideology you perform a problem.
So you had nothing to say about whats wrong with planned urbanization, so you went again for a personal attack, and switching to something something about marxist or communism because... Well, honestly, I don't know why nor do I care.
This is the only thing of value you wrote
Objectively, it was bad to build unhabitable skyskrapers.
Yes. Those few bad actors who build tofu buildings in Tukery, Greece, China, Myanmar, Bangkok, or USA (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyatt_Re…) or wherever are bad and did wrong. What's your point?
You know my point. Because you asked for it several times. Then you try your best to have me said something else so you can be outraged.
Because you need to defend more than learn. You need to defend so much that you create outrage. It's immature.
This turned out a little bit long. I wonder if anyone will bother reading it.
A lot of this so-called 'bubble' is based on capital expenditure in support of a technology that probably doesn't have the capability AI company ceo's claim, but does have fascinating, and in terms of how society is currently arranged possibly extremely harmful, potential.
I know what ai companies have done, and what they are likely to do, in the pursuit of profit is shit; I would say that is a capitalism and fascist billionaire issue, rather than a tech issue but ymmv.
And there is the energy consumption problem. I think ai ceo's and tech broligarchs would privately say 'compare the energy consumed by my datacentre to the energy consumed by the workers it has replaced and you will see it is fairly efficient.......' (I am saying what I expect they think, not what I agree with).
The concern that the economy currently has all of its eggs in the ai basket seems reasonable, but I see why capital is betting on it as big as it is. Any concerns regarding the economic disruption of an ai bubble popping is nothing compared to what could happen if 50%+ white collar workers are made redundant. We saw the number of essential workers needed per 1 million people during covid: it wasn't many. Most jobs exist because the people exist to do them, corralled into the pyramidal structure of capitalism, where money trickles upwards. AI might push us into an era where the people exist but the jobs do not.
Anyway, I see this 'bubble' as being like the dotcom bubble, which didn't kill the web when it popped. The gpu's this capital expenditure has paid for are going to continue to be used, even as this economic period shakes itself out. They aren't just going to evaporate. It isn't like worthless debt being packaged up and resold without a chance of it being recouped, even if the prospect of what can be achieved with AI is currently over-valued.
I've been saying the same thing.
The 2008 housing bubble was predicated on cheap lending. It was all debt. It was massive amounts of toxic debt sold around Wall Street, like using Trump Coin or counterfeit cash used to buy a house.
The vast majority of what's happening here is not debt. Sure, some, but very little. Even the OpenAI AMD stock swap thing is swapping a gamble on stocks worth real money, not debt.
IMO the first sub-bubble to pop will be all the time and effort wasted on "Startups" that are nothing more than a couple people acting as a wrapper for an AI agent. That's not really going to impact the economy too much on its face, but suddenly a lot of people are going to go from being "entrepreneurs" to being truly unemployed.
Edit: Also, just saw this gem, and THIS is how you get a supercharged 2008 repeat, bank deregulation and $2.6 trillion in lending. Which is exactly how we got to 2008's subprime lending.
The vast majority of what’s happening here is not debt.
Most of what is going on in the AI sector is most certainly debt leveraged. Like, I'm looking at the books for several companies deep into AI.
I mean, how much profit is OpenAI turning right now?
I’m looking at the books for several companies
Well with all that proprietary information, please do enlighten us with specifics. Who has loans, and how much? From which banks?
Hold up everyone. It's not a bubble.
"So it is true that valuations are high but, in our view, generally not at levels that are as high as are typically seen at the height of a financial bubble," said Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer.
He's from GOLDMAN SACHS LOLOLOLO I THINK THEY WOULD RECOGNIZE A BUBBLE LOL ah fuck me our economy is gonna splode
Goldman Sachs also though NINA mortgages were a good idea, and they also thought it was a good idea to bundle bad mortgages in with good mortgages, and find a rater to mark them AAA investments.
And then we saw how that worked out.
yeah, how could this go wrong?
at least after the crash those houses could be lived in. these datacenters are made for one purpose, AI, and really would have to be completely gutted and refurbed for general purposes.... fun.
Timing is a fools game for sure. Bubble could pop next month, next year, or even later.
If you're old, make sure you have a good percent in bonds. If you're young, make sure you have 6-12 months saved in case of layoffs and keep saving - market will look completely different in 20-30 years anyways so it's not worth worrying about.
I don't think it's a bubble, first there is absolutely zero comparison to the housing bubble, which was a financial problem that caused housing prices to inflate, while the inherent value of housing stayed the same. This alleged AI bubble is mostly driven by companies that have lots of money, so it is not credit based, and there are underlying products that actually have increasing value.
The better comparison would be the dot com bubble, which was dominated by companies that didn't even have a product and didn't make any money. The frenzy is similar, but the fundamentals are different.
AI investments may cool down because obviously there is a frantic race in an attempt to get ahead.
But the reason I don't think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
They may lose money investing too heavily in this, but the most companies investing in this can afford it.
I think the most AI bubbly company isn't even in the diagram, because that is Tesla. Tesla might actually go down, because Musk is insane.
But in general if it is a bubble, it is a very very long one, Nvidia value has been exploding since 2016 based on their AI product dominance. If this is a bubble, I think it will go down in history as the longest living bubble ever.
Is the market frantic? Yes absolutely.
Is the value of some AI companies extremely high? Yes absolutely.
Is it a bubble that will burst? No if it's a bubble, this one will be more like deflating to a less frantic level, because ALL the main players have the money to weather losses.
And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble.
Its not a bubble but most people here dont think for themselves. They dont even seem to understand the connection between what news is put out, which analysts they choose to give attention, and for what purpose.
Imagine living your life and just believing whatever someone says in the news just because he has the title of analyst. And never thinking about who profits from that specific guy being on the news at that specific time. Who picked that guy to say what he does and why? Its not random.
Being able to influence the market is key to making a lot of money. How do people think they influence the market? This is how they do it. How else?
Sometimes they probably lose money too, specially when orange man opens his mouth and says something very stupid, like last Friday. But then they position themselves for the coming uptrend and make their money back, maybe even more then they had before, since they have giant pockets.
The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble
Hey! Before we go any further — if you want to support my work, please sign up for the premium version of Where’s Your Ed At, it’s a $7-a-month (or $70-a-year) paid product where every week you get a premium newsletter, all while supporting my free w…Edward Zitron (Ed Zitron's Where's Your Ed At)
Its not a bubble but most people here dont think for themselves.
But the ones who believe the AI hype think for themselves. Right.
And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble
Citation needed.
I don’t think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
Last I looked, the big AI companies are all hemorrhaging money.
It is not "normal" to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.
Only in made up financial land does that work, and causes cyclic depressions where the working class loses wealth, and the oligarchs further concentrate wealth in their hands.
And you said its driven by companies making money... the big AI companies driving this bubble are losing money.
It is not “normal” to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.
Maybe not, but it is absolutely normal to lose money for years to make a profit later.
Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it's a very profitable market for them now.
Microsoft tried some of the same with Windows Phone, where they invested billions for years before they gave up.
One of the most hyped AI companies is probably OpenAI, and they absolutely have products that makes them money. They are not profitable yet.
But among the bigger stock holders are Nvidia and Microsoft, and if OpenAI goes under, they will absolutely survive just fine. But I don't think they will.
OpenAI is owned by companies that know how to make money, and apparently OpenAI knows how to do it too, and has been quicker to make money on for instance ChatGPT than Google was on making money on YouTube.
Some AI companies will go down, that's the nature of being in a cutting edge business, and it's the nature of competition. But I think the AI business will mature and stabilize like most businesses have, not burst like a bubble.
Nobody called it a bubble when the smartphone market exploded. Because everybody could see the value of the product, although it's not quite the same, many companies have been forced out of the smartphone market due to competition. I think the AI market will be mostly similar.
Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it’s a very profitable market for them now.
Is it? They recently had mass layoffs in the Xbox division and had to jack up prices for gamepass. Compared to Sony and Nintendo, their console sales are pitiful. This is after pouring billions of dollars into the Xbox brand.
The funny thing about people who say it’s not a bubble because AI has value is that the asset category having value doesn’t prevent valuation bubbles from forming.
Houses have value: you can live in them. Yet there was a housing bubble.
The internet has value: you can watch cat videos on it. Yet there was a dot com bubble.
Tulip bulbs have value: you can grow pretty flowers with them. Yet there was a tulip bulb bubble.
In my experience, whenever you start reading news stories asking if something is a bubble and quoting investment bankers say, “no, it’s not a bubble,” well, usually it’s a bubble.
The housing bubble encompassed a metric ton of banks and companies that bought and sold shares of subprime mortgages in the billions of dollars and when everyone stopped paying and started defaulting, that caused a entire economic collapse.
Now unless someone can point me to an analysis where we have some tangible proof that banks and tons of companies are invested, not just using, AI, it seems to me the fall out would be limited to tech companies, which yeah would involve some job losses but nothing on the scale of the housing or dotcom bubble.
Now if you're referring to rich jackasses who are all in and banking on AI taking our jerbs? Sure that bubble will hurt them but they're not driving forces in the economy, just politics, which I guess could cause a economic crash if they get your idiot politicians more scared of them than the people with France on their minds.
run out if something more profitable comes around. Maybe a war or so.
If not for the banks investing hevily into it, i'd not be all that worried.
Every company in that list could shrink by half and we'd all be at worst back to covid times. Sure unemployment would suck, but do we REALLY need microsoft and NVidia to be as huge as they are?
I see "gold rush" the company selling shovels is making out like a bandit, everyone else is make a profit on the previous gen but requires a 10x cost increase for the next gen. And thus 10x more shovels.. As soon as 10x more shovels stops giving 10x+ improvements this is the wrong investment.
Hints are we already reached this point.
Some AI companies will pivot and improve in other ways with more linear costs/results.. The ones hoping the line continues to the moon.. I think they overshot.. I just don't know when it will fall back..
After Hyundai ICE Raid, Even South Korea’s Capitalists Question US Relations
Zip ties. Helicopters. Crowded cells. Guns trained on bewildered workers. Foul water. Forced vaccinations. An unconscious detainee left on the floor by negligent guards. A pregnant woman in handcuffs. A detainee being called “Rocket Man” (Donald Trump’s nickname for Kim Jong Un) by sneering federal agents. A menstruating woman forced to attend to her period with only toilet paper.These are the details of 316 South Korean nationals’ experiences in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention that have flooded the country’s media in the weeks after the September 4 raid on a Hyundai-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Ellabell, Georgia. A wave of fury is now pouring forth from across South Korean society — and the political consequences are only just beginning.
There is far more at stake than a single factory in Georgia, which by itself represented 8,500 jobs and $4.3 billion in investment, and is just one of 23 plants being built across the U.S. by Korean conglomerates. Since the raid, the U.S. and South Korea have announced that Korean workers will be able to use B-1 visas and ESTA visa waivers to continue working in the U.S. A new bill in Congress, the Partner with Korea Act, also seeks to extend 15,000 professional E-4 visas to South Koreans for the first time.
But U.S. flexibility on immigration is not all that matters. Seoul and Washington have yet to finalize their trade deal instigated by Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent blanket tariff on South Korean goods. At the current stage of negotiations, South Korea has agreed to accept a 15 percent tariff on its exports and provide tremendous investments and other financial agreements: $350 billion in state-backed short-term investment, $150 billion in private sector contracts with U.S. corporations, and a guarantee to purchase $100 billion in U.S. liquid natural gas. Despite so much on the table, a written agreement has yet to be produced, and negotiations are proving tense as the Trump administration presses for Seoul to provide the lion’s share of its $350 billion commitment in cash. While some of the shock over the ICE raid has died down, Washington’s conduct over the course of months of negotiations has also raised deeper questions in South Korea about the real nature of the alliance — and whether this is a relationship that can last.
The Art of the Steal
The anger unleashed by ICE’s abuse of Korean workers has been building for some time. Trump’s tariff threats, announced in March, hit South Korea at a difficult time, when the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol was unresolved, and the country was reeling from years of flagging economic performance.
The issue was not only a matter of timing. The Biden administration’s CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act also used similar (though less onerous) tariff threats to force South Korean conglomerates to transfer production and make large investments in the U.S. — which is how the Hyundai-LG plant made its way to Georgia in the first place. Having already complied with the previous administration, South Korea nevertheless now finds itself facing an even graver economic threat that could lead to recession: not just a 25 percent tariff on all exports (since reduced to 15 percent), but sector-based tariffs impacting most of South Korea’s key industries as well.
While much of the anger on either side of the Pacific has focused on the current administration in Washington, Trump’s tariffs are just the latest in a string of U.S. policies that have sought to deny South Korea its economic sovereignty, open its markets to foreign takeover, and degrade the rights and dignity of its working people.
After Hyundai ICE Raid, Even South Korea’s Capitalists Question US Relations | Truthout
Can the US and South Korea’s tenuous alliance survive Trump’s tariffs and ICE’s raid on a Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia?britney (Truthout)
Stop Ignoring the Browser: The Biggest Frontend Shift in a Decade
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Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Resi noti i risultati di laboratorio e delle simulazioni multiphysics del quantum computer “made in Italy”Redazione (LatinaToday)
ClipperDefiance
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in reply to ssillyssadass • • •Zer0_F0x
in reply to ssillyssadass • • •Open windows and shrink your boot partition by whatever you want Linux to take. Leave the space unallocated and delete any secondary partitions you may have already created in the first failed installation.
Then, start the Linux installation again and see if that works.
If you have a second drive that's a much better choice because windows will regularly fuck up the Linux part of the bootloader and good luck fixing it.
Go log into windows, backup the second drive files somewhere else and format it, then install Linux there.
I just hop into my uefi menu on boot and select the windows disk to load whenever required instead of a dual boot bootloader because I know windows will not damage it
ssillyssadass
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But you should really just install to it's own disk. It will save you a lot of pain in the future
Dual Boot Linux Mint And Windows 10 or 11 [Beginner's Guide]
Abhishek Prakash (It's FOSS)just_another_person
in reply to ssillyssadass • • •Your drive is encrypted. You either need to disable that, or boot back into Windows and shrink the partition and clear up space to install.
The only other option the installer sees with no free space is take over the entire drive.