New 7-Zip high-severity vulnerabilities expose systems to remote attackers — users should update to version 25 ASAP
Patches for two high-severity ZIP parsing flaws have quietly been available since July.
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Battlefield 6 has an epic launch bug where it fails to recognize that the game is already installed — EA boss suggests one affected user to ‘refund and buy on Steam’
EA compensates users with a free seasonal Battle Pass and XP boosters.
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The Destruction in Gaza Is What the Future of AI Warfare Looks Like
American tech companies have given highly consequential support to Israel's campaign.
Archived version: archive.is/newest/gizmodo.com/…
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
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Nintendo allegedly hacked by Crimson Collective hacking group — screenshot shows leaked folders, production assets, developer files, and backups
Did someone break through Nintendo's formidable cyber defenses?
Cambridge University launches project to rescue data trapped on old floppy disks
Cambridge’s 'Future Nostalgia' project is racing to save decades of digital history from vanishing floppy disks.
‘I realised I’d been ChatGPT-ed into bed’: how ‘Chatfishing’ made finding love on dating apps even weirder
Where once people were duped by soft-focus photos and borrowed chat-up lines, now they have to watch out for computer-generated charm. But it’s one thing to use a witty phrase – another thing entirely to build a whole fake persona …
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AI personas are the future of dating, Bumble founder says. Many aren't buying.
The future of dating could be filled with digital, artificial intelligence-powered personas setting each other up, according Bumble founder Whitney Wolfe Herd.Daysia Tolentino (NBC News)
Most people can’t tell the difference between AI and human voices, study finds
As AI becomes more enmeshed in our lives, most people can’t tell the difference between human voices and their synthetic clones, a new study reveals.
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Inside the belly of the beast: A technical walk through Intel's 18A production facility at Fab52
deep dive: Now if Lip Bu Tan can just find a willing customer
LineageOS 23
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It seems I'll get this update, nice!
Thanks a lot to the team and everyone involved.
Also, fuck google.
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Yapp...
I keep my blackberry key2....
And maybe unihertz will come with a titan slim 2, but still no lineageos
I buy the phone for the os these days.
It does mean getting a used phone from back a few years.
I think newer phones seem to make it harder maybe even impossible to unlock the bootloader.
I use a sony xa2 (2018) and it's only possible because sony still has a service to issue unlock codes for it. I think if sony turns that service off, then no more lineage os unless you already unlocked it.
They haven't released Android 16 QPR1 to AOSP yet, even though it came out on Pixels at the beginning of September. Normally the gap is ~1-2 days.
So yeah, a lot of custom rom devs are pretty bleak right now and honestly their concerns are pretty warranted given that it's Google we're talking about.
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Bleak, maybe, or maybe it will finally be the tipping point that starts pushing people away from the "Big Two" phone OS/platforms in pursuit of something truly open and free that isn't completely controlled by a privacy-invading tech giant.
Windows 11 has apparently finally triggered the seemingly never-to-be "Year of Linux on the Desktop" as people refuse to submit to Windows 11's telemetry and other misfeatures and repurpose old (and new) machines with Linux instead of letting Microsoft decide they're obsolete.
Maybe soon we'll have the year of the Linux phone too. Or at least be able to promote AOSP into a first-class citizen with its own phone support and designs and features and future, instead of simply being relegated to the role of a stagnant fork of de-Googled Android. It's time to go from soft fork to hard fork. Fuck Google, stop playing their games, and leave them behind.
They've been working towards killing it for 10+ years.
It does seem like we're nearing the completion of their goals
postmarketOS // real Linux distribution for phones
Aiming for a 10 year life-cycle for smartphonespostmarketOS
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Taliban, Pakistani forces trade heavy fire along Afghanistan border
Pakistan and Afghanistan have traded claims of seizing each other’s border posts, as border clashes between their militaries intensify following an air strike on Kabul earlier this week.
The Taliban on Sunday said it had captured three Pakistani border posts during its retaliatory attacks at seven points along the border.
Taliban, Pakistani forces trade heavy fire along Afghanistan border
Clashes come as tensions escalate over an air strike on Kabul that the Taliban blames on Islamabad.Faisal Ali (Al Jazeera)
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You might be terminally sectarian if...
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Wait, you've actually done that? I just tried to imagine something ridiculously sectarian that I'd do if it wasn't just bloody counterproductive. And then when it made me laugh for half a minute straight, I posted it here.
So, then, what's the best distro? Obviously any real commie uses Linux, that's a given.
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Well I guess I was joking a bit but it would be in character for me to do exactly this and my friends would probably agree. ;)
The best distro in my book i hard to say. I use many distros on many different machines for different purposes. My main tower for gaming, hacking and work is tuxedo os (basically kubuntu by a german hardware vendor i work with), business laptop is pop!os which is also gaming ready, one laptop for educating people is mint, my little lenovo hackbook uses lubuntu.
So I guess, since they're literally all ubuntu derivatives but I hate ubuntu proper, there is no best, just many great ones for different purposes. I did btw daily debian on my tower bit it was frustratingly backwards and i did run postmarketOS on my phone for some time which is awesome but not quite daily drivable imho.
Whats your favorite distro?
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Honestly, you make good points. I was in the mood for "argue about silly nonsense til blue in face" when I replied to you, but, yeah, the thing about Linux distros is that there's a different best one for different use cases.
If we're talking favourite distro of all time conceptually, antiX, hands down. If we're talking daily driver I actually use, I like Linux Mint for that. Basic, yeah, but it Just Works and that's what I want and need. Honestly, I think I'm a lot like you - I like Debian derivatives, I don't have a good usecase for vanilla Debian though, but I'm not going to tell anyone preferring distros with a different base that they're wrong or get all sectarian about it, that's a waste of both our time and spoons at best and actively counterproductive at worst.
I do find the world of Official State Distros used/maintained by governments interesting from a political standpoint, especially in AES contexts, software sovereignty this, saving taxpayer resources that, yada yada yada, but I've never actually tried using any and don't have strong opinions on any of the actual state distros in question. Except Red Star, my opinion on that one is that "it's garbage and the versions we have here in the West are horribly out of date, don't use it."
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Okay, sure, every other month... Still way more failures per year than anything running Debian!
Updates? Now why would I want to do that, besides basic security updates? The whole point of a stable system is that nothing changes suddenly! I don't need up to date packages, I need a system that won't break unless I do something stupid to it (and probably won't break even when I do stupid shit to it)! And if you really need the latest packages, there are ways to do that, but most people really don't need the bleeding edge!
(I don't actually have strong opinions on this. I actually did have something derived from Arch on my initial pre switch list of distros to try. Just happened to like one that happens to be based on Debian better. (I use pure Debian about as much as you use pure Arch, I guess. Lol.) But being sectarian towards Arch users who act like you is fun.)
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Heh, well I'm still cool for using the bleeding edge! Guess what Debian? My packages break so yours don't! Erm, why use an easy installer and unstable leap repo when you can manually go through installing (please forget arch-install/arch-based distros exists) your system and be left wondering why your fstab is broken! Heh, I just know arch is for the cool tech enthusiasts like me~
(Me too, I actually used Kubuntu/Pop!_OS for a brief while before going Endeavour. For me, I wanted to have the flawed AUR, and since I was already trying to go further with KDE Plasma and Unstable Stuff, I thought why not leap to an Arch-based distro? I mean, besides the every month-or-so package warning breakage and learning to install multiple kernels because of.. the instability, lol. It's fun to act like a sectarian too, especially since I'm supposed to be associated with *those* Arch elitists if.. they still exist.)
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Hey, manual installation might teach you a lot about Linux, but at least installing my system took less than an hour and I have a functioning system with everything I need set up! While you Arch people almost always spent over an hour and a lot of effort, just to get a TTY booting, and you're still missing things even once you do get your choice of desktop environment and your graphical programs installed and running!
(Tbh, I kinda want the AUR sometimes. But, like, I don't need it, Arch has a reputation for being a pain and forcing you to really learn about Linux by causing you to constantly need to use odd terminal commands to fix problems, and most of my distro hopping urges in general are some combination of "think I understand Linux way more than I do" and "I don't really want a new distro, I just want a new desktop environment." And the funny thing is that so much of what actually seems interesting and new to me beyond just a different DE that's shiny and new, is based on Debian. Lol.)
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I added MQTT logging to my 121GW via BT/WiFi
Hi all!
I thought y'all might be interested in my weekend project: Using an ESP32 to read the value from my 121GW DMM and send it to my MQTT broker via Bluetooth and WiFi. This workflow is much better for me compared to logging to microSD cards. The code is an ESPHome config that can straightforwardly be flashed onto most ESP32 variants.
The config and some documentation is available here: github.com/tjhowse/121gw-espho…
A brief video explainer is here: youtu.be/GLtkTARH1eo
At the moment I'm only unpacking the main value, range and sign from the Bluetooth packet. It would be nice to read out the rest of the values, but I haven't felt the need yet. Note that the DMM briefly blanks the display when changing ranges. This results in a value of zero being sent on the MQTT link. All of my testing has been in volts mode, other modes may contain dragons! Please test thoroughly before relying on this for anything important.
Cheers,
tjhowse
GitHub - tjhowse/121gw-esphome: An ESPHome configuration for EEVBlog 121GW via BLE
An ESPHome configuration for EEVBlog 121GW via BLE - tjhowse/121gw-esphomeGitHub
Potatoes are not the part of the plant that reproduces through pollination, seed potatoes are grown from other potatoes, the fruits are poisonous, potatoes are nightshades. I may be mistaken, maybe pollination helps? I know potatoes arent ready for harvest until after flowering
I think maybe you could argue cows are largely fed pollinated crops when raised in a feedlot
Il mito della lince-drago che riecheggia nelle grotte del lago Superiore - Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri
Il mito della lince-drago che riecheggia nelle grotte del lago Superiore - Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri
“Io… Noi… Aiutateci, Padre. Abbiamo infranto un Divieto per cercare agi e ricchezze nella vita terrena. Ora lo spirito segreto del Gichi-Gami è adirato con noi.Jacopo (Il blog di Jacopo Ranieri)
How close are we to solid state batteries for electric vehicles? - Ars Technica
Every few weeks, it seems, yet another lab proclaims yet another breakthrough in the race to perfect solid-state batteries: next-generation power packs that promise to give us electric vehicles (EVs) so problem-free that we’ll have no reason left to buy gas-guzzlers.These new solid-state cells are designed to be lighter and more compact than the lithium-ion batteries used in today’s EVs. They should also be much safer, with nothing inside that can burn like those rare but hard-to-extinguish lithium-ion fires. They should hold a lot more energy, turning range anxiety into a distant memory with consumer EVs able to go four, five, six hundred miles on a single charge.
And forget about those “fast” recharges lasting half an hour or more: Solid-state batteries promise EV fill-ups in minutes—almost as fast as any standard car gets with gasoline.
This may all sound too good to be true—and it is, if you’re looking to buy a solid-state-powered EV this year or next. Look a bit further, though, and the promises start to sound more plausible. “If you look at what people are putting out as a road map from industry, they say they are going to try for actual prototype solid-state battery demonstrations in their vehicles by 2027 and try to do large-scale commercialization by 2030,” says University of Washington materials scientist Jun Liu, who directs a university-government-industry battery development collaboration known as the Innovation Center for Battery500 Consortium.
Indeed, the challenge is no longer to prove that solid-state batteries are feasible. That has long since been done in any number of labs around the world. The big challenge now is figuring out how to manufacture these devices at scale, and at an acceptable cost.
How close are we to solid state batteries for electric vehicles?
Superionic materials promise greater range, faster charges and more safety.Knowable Magazine (Ars Technica)
A VERY useful book for privacy (How to hide anything)
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Yeah on one of my browsers it flagged it. Which is odd because Limewire is a legit business that's been around before social media, but they use to get hated on by companies and regulators because they allowed people to share free music. I don't have any other links personally. As I directly uploaded this file myself. I see that 70 people downloaded it so far with no problem.
I would recommend making an exception on your ublock for it, after you research limewire and see if you trust it.
I should point out that even though Limewire used to be a "legit" business, the current interation is little more than crypto grifters using a nostalgic brand to prop up their tokens, and they've already been doing shady shit like taking over snapdrop.net (previously local network file sharing) with little to no warning to the end users.
They're in many blocklists for a reason, y'know.
For more information, please check out the "Name reuse by unrelated companies" section of their Wikipedia page.
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It all depends on your security model.
If you want to stuff some cash, you probably want that easily accessible.
If you want to hide something you'll need in a few years, you'll probably stuff it under a pile of junk.
If you want to make your family heirlooms safe until you reveal their location on your deathbed, planting a tree or building a house on top of them is a valid ultra-long-term option.
I mean this is certainly something somebody wrote, but the content is a joke.
first off, it's from the 80s, so it might as well be from the 1800s, that's how much it has to do with our everyday lives. second, it's rife and overflowing with prepper-adjacent gas and fantasies. the writer's style is lacking, to be overly generous and the whole thing gives off vibes from the days or alt.* newsgroups. finally, the "advice" in there is laughably naive and sometimes just plain wrong.
so thanks OP, had a few laughs browsing it but this got deleted almost instantly.
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It is very difficult to have an objective and meaningful conversation with someone who considers their audience to be simpletons and fools right from the gate. Add in condescending references to the masses as 'normies' et al or those with conflicting opinions labeled as 'hypebeasts'.
If we are the enlightened, why don't we come down from our enlightened pedestals and assist our fellow man in lieu of brow beating them from some assumed level of superiority or high ground? If I were one of the supposed 'normies' and you were trying to convince of privacy, security, and anonymity with the tone you arrived here a few days ago with, I'd probably tell you to piss right off. We're all here to learn and help learn, and take that knowledge and teach others around us how to use their technology in the most safe, secure, and private manner possible.
Condescending attitudes and tones don't do much to further the cause.
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- YouTube
Profitez des vidéos et de la musique que vous aimez, mettez en ligne des contenus originaux, et partagez-les avec vos amis, vos proches et le monde entier.www.youtube.com
Here's an actual good book:
Helen Nissenbaum (2009). Privacy in Context: Technology, Policy, and the Integrity of Social Life. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. ISBN 9780804772891.
Para que Soberania não seja slogan vazio | Outras Palavras
Para que Soberania não seja slogan vazio | Outras Palavras
Em palavras, a resistência do governo Lula a Trump é valorosa. Mas na política de comércio externo, e na ausência de planejamento, o Brasil segue prisioneiro de dogmas neoliberais arcaicos, reprimarizado e submisso a acordos colonialistasPaulo Nogueira Batista Jr e Manoel Casado (Outras Palavras)
'CDC is over': RFK Jr. lays off over 1,000 employees in Friday night massacre
'CDC is over': RFK Jr. lays off over 1,000 employees in Friday night massacre
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. laid off more than 1,000 CDC scientists, doctors and health officials Friday night amid the shutdown as Trump administration RIFs continueBrandy Zadrozny (MSNBC)
North Country Delight. Brunswick, Vermont. October 2, 2012
This was the actual color of the mountains. That year it was warmer and a bit wetter than normal, so the trees went unusually red. On the drier years, you tend to get more oranges, golds and yellows. Taken from Vt. Rt. 102, looking east across the Connecticut River (yeah, it's there at the far edge of the field and not wide at all, that far into the north country..) into New Hampshire.
Was taken with a Sony DSC-P93A (honestly a tiny spitfire of a camera!), was 8 or 9 shots then stitched them together and did a bit of spot touching to hide the seams using Photoshop. No color adjustments at all though. This ended up a bit shorter than I wanted, as at the time I did not have a tripod to do pan shots with, so of course the camera was not as steady as I'd wished as I was taking the shots. lots of up and down.. Urgh. But.. a beautiful year up there..
Seeds of resistance: A war on Palestinian agriculture, sovereignty, and survival
Seeds of resistance: A war on Palestinian agriculture, sovereignty, and survival
When bulldozers rolled into Hebron on July 31st and destroyed Palestine’s only national seed bank, they weren’t just tearing down a building; they were attacking a living archive of Palestinian res…Voices from FoE Asia Pacific
A gaming matsuri across many images, please enjoy!
Beaverton, OR.
A few months ago, I tried my second attempt at my game matsuri idea. I wanted to revisit it at some point, using some props that I had forgotten about.
I ended up taking about two hours to build the set, and another four to shoot. I was pretty frustrated by my tripod, which had a minimum height because of a shaft on it, and for a lot of the street level shots, they were taken on a couple of soda boxes. However, the tripod was a huge boon because there were some twenty second exposures going on; turns out, I'm married to 100 ISO.
There's several neat elements happening with the set here: first, the main boulevard has been laid out like a roulette table, and every roulette table needs a zero -- I used kabufuda, an 8, 9, and 3, which is a hand worth zero points in a game called Oicho-Kabu. Coincidentally, this is where the Yakuza gets their name from. There's also a shogi king being checkmated in an alleyway, an artist painting another shogi piece, a riichi mahjong hand called thirteen orphans, as well as numerous other details throughout.
In addition, with clever editing and methods of capture, there's weather now! I was delighted to see that it came out quite well.
Though a lot of this was frustrating, I think I'm fairly-well satisfied by the end product. There's eight pictures in here, please see them all!
Thanks for seeing my work!
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How many generations of stars came before the Sun?
Ask Ethan: How many generations of stars came before the Sun?
Our Sun only arose after 9.2 billion years of cosmic history: with many stars living and dying first. How many prior generations were there?Ethan Siegel (Big Think)
Pokemon Legends Z-A
It seems that we're getting close to a leak. Pokemon project has an update file available and from what I've seen, some people have game dumps but no one wants to leak it yet.
I've played the first two gen games when they came out. This one looks pretty interesting too. I'm excited to try it.
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Kind of wish they'd do a cross platform game (that you can play at home). I don't want to buy a Switch just for Pokemon.
Edit: and yes, I'm aware of which community this is, but after GBA I never had much luck with these games, and haven't kept up. Not sure how functional they are (especially on Linux).
A gaming matsuri across many images, please enjoy!
Beaverton, OR.
A few months ago, I tried my second attempt at my game matsuri idea. I wanted to revisit it at some point, using some props that I had forgotten about.
I ended up taking about two hours to build the set, and another four to shoot. I was pretty frustrated by my tripod, which had a minimum height because of a shaft on it, and for a lot of the street level shots, they were taken on a couple of soda boxes. However, the tripod was a huge boon because there were some twenty second exposures going on; turns out, I'm married to 100 ISO.
There's several neat elements happening with the set here: first, the main boulevard has been laid out like a roulette table, and every roulette table needs a zero -- I used kabufuda, an 8, 9, and 3, which is a hand worth zero points in a game called Oicho-Kabu. Coincidentally, this is where the Yakuza gets their name from. There's also a shogi king being checkmated in an alleyway, an artist painting another shogi piece, a riichi mahjong hand called thirteen orphans, as well as numerous other details throughout.
In addition, with clever editing and methods of capture, there's weather now! I was delighted to see that it came out quite well.
Though a lot of this was frustrating, I think I'm fairly-well satisfied by the end product. There's eight pictures in here, please see them all!
Thanks for seeing my work!
Podcast clients?
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I've been using pocketcast and it works for what I need.
I've recently become aware of some shenanigans with the paid service, but currently works great for a basic usage
AntennaPod for Windows, Apple and Linux – AntennaPod
AntennaPod for Windows, Apple and LinuxAntennaPod
For those that don't click:
These are recommendations for other FOSS podcast apps by the developers of AntennaPod, since they only have the time and resources to develop their app for Android
The url made me think AntennaPod was available on other platforms, it is not
I head about Audiobookshelf and I already use Escapepod on mobile, LMS for music (self hosted), so wondered few times about installing it too.
So can Audiobookshelf be used for clips and annotation?
I find that more and more often I listen to a podcast, it gives me an idea and I want to :
- pause
- record my idea, by speaking it aloud for e.g. 30s
- unpause to keep on listening
- review the idea later on, e.g. on my desktop, while maintaining provenance, e.g. this idea "monetization of own content creation for creators on my on-going VR project" (ideally as text at this stage, so using STT) was sparking by listening to podcast "Voices of VR episode 1226 on VR Chat and monetization" around 25min in.
Edit : just checked on their demo server and there is a bookmark option. It's just text for me, it doesn't clip part of the audio, but it does associate some typed text to a moment in time. It might be enough for me.
GitHub - manolomartinez/greg: A command-line podcast aggregator
A command-line podcast aggregator. Contribute to manolomartinez/greg development by creating an account on GitHub.GitHub
gPodder is pretty simple. Link: gpodder.github.io/
Other than that, if you want CLI, while it's not a podcast program, yt-dlp is pretty good for downloading them. You can filter by title, date, etc. It's got a bit of a learning curve, tho.
Joe Rogan Slams Trump's 'Horrific' Immigration Policies
Joe Rogan Slams Trump’s ‘Horrific’ Immigration Policies As Heartlessly Cruel: ‘Hav ...
Joe Rogan slammed President Donald Trump's immigration policies as "horrific" to see play out, saying "anybody with a heart" can't support what's happening.Zachary Leeman (Mediaite)
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Nothing is worth trillions,
There is things worth trillions. Like full countries, and the largest pension funds and social security funds. Having a single company be comparable to those massive collections of people is insane, and it's because they think it can replace workers--when it can't, not yet, and not for a long time
Production must equal Consumption plus investment.
An excess of production leads to companies closing down.
Reducing consumption (via getting rid of workers, reducing wages, etc.) will lead to an imbalance that must correct itself.
This can be forestalled by private debt, government debt or exporting the surplus but this is unsustainable.
The most optimistic take I've seen: AI is a drain on the entire economy that sucks up all investment and this is why the rest of the economy is basically in a recession. Once the bubble pops, investors will flood back into the real economy and correct the problem.
I'm not optimistic.
I'll play devil's advocate here: agreed that the rest of the (US) economy seems to be slowing or shrinking but remains buoyed by AI / Mag 7 stocks. That said, a lot of the investment reflected above is in data centers and hardware (Nvidia, Coreweave, Oracle, Microsoft).
The bubble pop will hinge on whether there is value in this data center buildup beyond AI. Unless everyone starts paying fistfulls of cash for AI chat, these companies may be able to find another use for all that compute and avoid a total crash. That could be a target for all that investment you mention.
The hardware is specialized for chatbots, it's not just something they can plug-and-play for other use cases. That means using it for other computing tasks is even less efficient per kWh and per litre of water, which will make it hard to justify the resource requirements.
Surely some of this hardware can find new life, but assets will be stranded.
I feel money itself is our new Dutch disease. We live and die according to the flux of money in the global economy/stock markets...
Are there any theories like that out there? Because money start to no longer function correctly IMO.
Looks more like the dot com bubble to me.
Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?
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Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?
Yes and no.
Yes in the sense that we have a lot more "fad" economies. There is something new so that needs to be EVERYTHING and the market course corrects, often at the cost of hardship for many.
But "no" in the sense of what "bubbles" tend to refer to. Things like the Japanese Bubble Economy where it causes (I forget if it is officially one but) recessions and even depressions.
The AI Bubble is not going to do that (on its own...). Yeah, a LOT of companies are going to be left holding the bag when they realize LLMs can't solve all problems for them AND manifest a Cyber Stana Katic to give them a blowie while it does that. But what will they be left with?
- A LOT of "prompt engineers": This is bad because that is going to be a LOT of people who, increasingly, went to school to get a degree in something with very little utility. That said... Art History majors have been showing us how to do that for decades and at least they did something they loved on their way to service industry jobs.
- For the companies that gutted their workforce over the past few years: A need to rapidly hire talented workers who don't require ChatGPT to do their job: This is REALLY good for the people who have been hurting and should actually lead to a lot of job mobility... for the old hats who predated this fad
- For the companies that purchased hardware: A lot of edge computing devices are going to be of questionable value. But for the folk who "just" bought a shit ton of GPUs from Daddy Jensen? They have a shit ton of GPUs they can either sell for cheap (not horrible) or repurpose (good)
Don't get me wrong. There is going to be upheaval and it is going to be bad. But it is also important to remember that drawings like the above are actively misleading and bordering on manipulative. Because basically all the biggies, except OpenAI, have non-AI uses. Oracle ballooned massively because of the OpenAI injection but... they are still god damned Oracle. Same with nVidia who, when they aren't powering every LLM on the planet, are also one of the companies that makes all the cards that power stuff like computer vision and the like in cars and what not.
Because... remember the dot com bubble? Remember how basically the entire world still runs on The Internet? It was just a case of rebalancing and pivoting for the most part.
All that said... the US is in a really bad way because the fascists have been increasingly gutting the economy and stopping basically any industry that involves manufacturing or communicating with external countries. We are gonna have a massive stock market crash when OpenAI et al pops...
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Who is paying? If every workplace needs a $100 or even $1000 per month license then those values are justified.
The people using the AI are training the AI. In 2 years, no competitor can enter the market because they don't know what to do.
Only Nvidia could be overvalued because at some point, OpenAI can design their own chip.
1) it's not AI, regardless of how many idiots repeat that bullshit. It is machine learning with glorified pattern recognition.
2) Why would anyone want to enter the market? It has no practical use that justifies the energy consumption. Because it is not targeted, for every individual application, there are much more efficient ways to accomolish the same/better results for much less energy.
It's good enough to answer most questions and it will only get better. Even if it is not AI it is a tool that knowledge workers use and will need to stay competitive.
And looking at the size of EU investments, only China will build competitors so these companies will own the market.
It’s good enough to answer most questions and it will only get better.
Reality indicates the opposite.
Even if it is not AI it is a tool that knowledge workers use and will need to stay competitive.
People who use machine learned systems to handle "knowledge" will dilute actual knowledge with billions of factual errors and fuck up mankinds knowledge base.
They're all paying each other. That's literally the point this image is trying to express.
What's especially insane is that the companies that are actually providing the service to end users, i.e. Coreweave et al, are not the ones seeing massively inflated prices, contrary to your point about the monthly fees justifying the higher evaluation.
Crypto had it's black monday.
The fall may have been accelerated by portfolio insurance hedging (using computer-based models to buy or sell index futures in various stock market conditions) or a self-reinforcing contagion of fear
Algorithms and feedback loops gummed up all the crypto exchanges and liquidity disappeared.
The crypto tide went out and we all saw who wasn't wearing any shorts.
So how dangerous is that really? I assume one day we’ll finally see investors saying, “Nah, that’s a bubble. I’m not gonna see any returns from those companies - I’m selling.” Then stock prices will fall, and some investors will lose money by selling for less than they bought. After that, AI unicorns will start to lose funding and close their businesses, laying off people.
But will I - a person who does not work in the AI industry and has not invested in AI companies - be affected by this?
Were you affected by the dotcom bubble?
Maybe the remaining tech companies, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, might raise prices of their products to cover the losses.
Yes, you absolutely will be effected.
In a general way, the plebs always do the heavy lifting - a universal truth since the dawn of time.
More specifically, your pension / 401k will lose a heap of money.
As the economy contracts there will be lay offs.
That means loan defaults, et cetera.
Pensions in the stock market are the hostage, and are being used as an excuse against regulations.
Fuck all of that.
You are white knighting the poor to protect your own ass(ets).
Trickle down economics is bullshit
No, actually when people stop buying things and companies close down, I'm pretty sure the employees of said companies lose their jobs.
It sucks but that's capitalism for you.
But if AI pops then that doesn't mean that people will stop buying things.
Very few people are employed by the AI industry. Most people's income won't change. Most people's consumption won't change.
Poor people don't have money to spend on much else than food and housing. Anyone with money is going to have stocks in these companies.
Also the AI industry is Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia, AMD and a few others. They employ quite a few people.
So we agree. Poor/ middle class people only hold stocks for retirement. AI bubble popping has no effect on them. The are exactly as they were pre-AI bubble.
Only rich people care about the current stock values. Only rich people are scared of an AI bubble. Only rich people are attempting the "too big to fail" FUD. Big Tech are not banks. There is no knock on effect.
AWS have now had enough outages that any serious company has migration plans and redundancies. If Google fails then the infrastructure stays running even if the current shareholders lose their shirts. The employees that are needed to bring in cash will not lose their jobs.
You are talking yourself into trickle down economics. There is now plenty of evidence that this isn't true.
There is no need to protect rich people's wealth so that the poor don't suffer
They will loose their jobs, because the economy slowed down and nobody is buying anything and their jobs aren't needed anymore
No.
The AI debt creation and investment is not of any benefit to the working class (except for a few construction workers). These data centers don't create 1000s of jobs. Windsurf has 250 employees. Cursor has 30.
This AI bubble is not affecting general income, only assets. As it doesn't hit income, it doesn't hit consumption. Poor people earn and consume. They are asset poor.
A pop in the AI bubble will damage the billionaires, but not the poor.
35% of the S&P is made up of stocks in the top 7 US tech firms. The stock market is extremely skewed towards these 7 firms, and a large part of their current evaulation is made up from speculation of potential AI returns. When the bubble bursts, everyone who is invested in these firms will feel it.
This wasn't always true. When the bubble bursts the S&P investors will revert back to a more realistic valuation. AI bursting won't affect LLY, JPM, WMT, COST etc.
Nothing of value has been lost. People just have the wrong anchor points.
As I said, the top 10% of Americans make up 50% of consumption, can't find a confirmation but I think that's the highest in modern history.
These 10% are consuming their income, not their wealth. An AI stock crash will have little to no effect on their income. (Except for the small proportion actually employed in AI research).
I agree, but that's just another factor, and it will also cause the stock market to crash, among other things.
Also, the worst thing is he won't get American factories to be built. Maybe one or two, but no one in the right mind is going to relocate large amounts of manufacturing to the US when tariffs are coming in and out of effect all the time. Tariffs only work for increasing manufacturing if companies believe they will last a long time. If companies think a tariff will last a month or a year, there's no point in making a factory that will take two, three years to build and then five years to become net profitable, because by the time the factories finished and the tariffs are gone, everyone that still has a factory outside of the US will just out compeat that factory with lower prices.
Your pension is tied to these companies stocks. I can pretty much guarantee that "your" pension fund owns quite a few of these stocks.
But, and this is the important part, that isn't your pension. It is the pension for those that are retired right now. There is no saved stack of money that you earned during your life thats waiting for you. Unless there is an equal amount of tax paying workers by the time you retire, you wont be getting that pension.
pension
I'm not sure how old you think most of us are, but I don't think pensions are a common retirement vehicle anymore, and haven't been for a while. 401k would probably be the modern equivalent, and it's still running on the stock market for the majority of its life prior to beginning to withdraw.
Pension is the correct English term
I don't think it is.
A pension implies benefits are distributed to the person in retirement, usually with some fixed amount per month. My understanding is that in the UK, defined contribution plans are required to be invested largely in annuities by retirement, which satisfies that, whereas in the US, 401ks don't have such restrictions. So a 401k could be depleated well before death, or be passed on to children as inheritance, unlike an annuity. There are required minimum distributions, but they don't kick in until your 70s.
If 401ks switched to a defined benefit plan at retirement, I could see calling it a pension. But since they're not, I think that's misleading, and employer sponsored plan makes more sense.
Right. OP's point is that they call both defined benefit (i.e. what some union people get) and defined contribution (i.e. 401k and whatnot) a "pension." My understanding is that a "pension" is a specific amount of money paid monthly in retirement (used to also just be the wage for certain jobs, not a retirement benefit).
A quick search yielded "defined contribution pensions", which seems to be a mix: your contributions are invested during employment, and then you get a fixed payment in retirement.
With a 401k, there's no fixed withdrawal in retirement unless you set one up, the only thing is a mandatory minimum withdrawal at a certain age (73?). My understanding is that wouldn't be considered a pension since the withdrawal isn't guaranteed or fixed, and you can withdraw everything if you so choose.
Maybe I'm wrong and a pension is a looser term there, but my understanding is that a pension needs to have a guaranteed benefit in retirement.
Not true of UK defined contribution, you can do what you want just like a 401k, though it may be disadvantagous for tax purposes.
It's pretty normal in British English to use pension as a synonym for retirement account, though I can see why you don't like that.
Really? This is what I see with a simple search:
When you’re able to take your pension, you can choose how and when you want the money. This usually includes the option of taking up to 25% as a tax-free lump sum and using the rest to get a guaranteed or variable income.
Looking more into it, I guess it's similar?
The 401k typically doesn't offer the guaranteed income, though I suppose some plans could offer annuities. You can choose to take fixed payments though, but there's no guarantee how long that will last. I don't know what the options are in the UK, but in the US, you can do whatever you like, as long as you withdraw the minimum (percentage of assets based on your age, starting at 73).
I see a pension as having some kind of guaranteed benefit. A 401k doesn't have that, so it doesn't count.
Interesting. I think people here would agree Social Security is a state pension, we just only call it by its name.
A pension specifically refers to a plan that makes consistent payments throughout retirement and stops at death (or may pass to the surviving spouse until their death). Anything else is a retirement plan if it's tax sheltered until some age, or an investment account if it's not.
I hear annuities are unpopular here, most seem to prefer either a dividend strategy, or sell securities as needed to cover whatever Social Security doesn't.
About half of the US population is enrolled in a pension even today...
unpri.org/private-retirement-s…
Private retirement systems and sustainability: United States
An analysis of the $27,570bn private retirement system in the US and how policy and structural characteristics affect sustainability.PRI
All the economy is a big circle if you draw the circle big enough.
Actually scratch that. There is an economy that is not just one big circle jerk, such as the development of new technologies or the terraforming of deserts into fertile land; as neither of these things ends the way it started; it brought lasting change, and that is true progress.
Actually did you see my presentation that i made about this recently?
The point is to convince the americans to invest in new technologies.
To all those who say that human spaceflight is impossible:
Europeans caused massive death in the Americas. I do not think we should replicate that model.
Also, the chance is small, but there might have been a separate biogenesis (beginning of life) on Mars. Sending humans with our dirty microbiome would almost certainly wipe any evidence of that, and possibly cause an extinction of an entirely separate form of life, which would be a crime even more horrible than the extinctions and genocides which we have caused so far.
Let's just leave Mars alone until we've studies it more and are certain there is no life. Colonizing the moon seems challenging enough for a couple centuries....
There is no good economic reason to colonize other planets. We have plenty of space here on earth, with conditions already much more hospitable than that of mars - deserts, for example. The resources needed to turn these into habitable land is so much less than the resources required to make even a tiny part of Mars inhabitable (i.e. establish a colony that relies on life support systems) it's insane to go for Mars first. The reason colonizing Mars is talked about at all is because a rich white dude wants to go to Mars, since deserts are too boring for his spoiled ass.
I actually agree that it would be cool if we went to Mars, not to colonize it but just to be there. But comparing it to white pillaging of the Americas is just incorrect. Mars is not inhabitable by humans, the Americas very much were. The external resources needed to colonize America were zero, in fact pillaging local lands meant a lot of resources for the Empire. Mars is going to be a much more expensive and much less profitable endeavor.
Actually I replied to you before, pointing out the very same fallacy: lemmy.ml/post/33824723/2013491…
Settling mars is a centuries long undertaking. You basically have to nurture a whole ecosystem from scratch... that would be a brutally difficult and lengthy process in the best of conditions. But of course, these aren't the best conditions. We aren't doing particularly well with the ecosystem we've already got.
If you want a historical project, then look to balancing modern industry within the planet's biosphere. It's a prerequisite to anything happening on mars.
I think it's hard to definitely call something a bubble until it pops.
The definition of a bubble goes something along the lines of market prices exceeding the intrinsic value of the investment they represent, which may be true here?
If you want to read more about this the rough name for these companies was "the magnificent seven" a year or so ago when I last looked at this. A quick Google suggests represent about a third of the SNP 500's value now and have a cape ratio (cyclicly adjusted price to earnings) of ~37 compared to 15-20 being normal.
Edit: the above baseline is incorrect; see sugar_in_tea's comment for a more accurate baseline and some interesting counterpoints
I can't find a good numerical source for the correlated risk within this group, and I suspect analyzing it is very difficult. Given they all used to be a lot more diversified in the past but now a large % of their valuation is predicated on AI historical correlation analysis probably fails. But the diagram linked here suggests it's probably bad to put all your money in these companies. (Or even a 3rd if you are in an s&p 500 index tracker 😶)
Like, none of this definitively says this is a bubble, since if it were possible to divine that the bubble would immediately pop, but it does suggest there is a strong likelihood we are seeing a bubble.
~37 compared to 15-20 being normal.
15-20 was normal for the 100 years ending 40-50 years ago. But of we look at the last 40 years or so, the CAPE has been higher, suggesting that we don't know how what "normal" looks like going forward. More people are buying stocks than ever before due to retirement plans and poor bond yields, which pushes up the PE.
So whether ~40 is high for a PE going forward isn't clear. The CAPE hit ~45 in the 2000 crash, and reverted to ~20 after the crash, yet the 2008 crash only hit ~26 and crashed down to ~14 and quickly bounced back to ~20. The 2008 had little to do with CAPE and more to do with corruption in the banking industry, whereas 2000 was almost purely oversized hype in the burgeoning tech market.
So is the normal range 20-30? Idk. Maybe 20 is actually low going forward, it's unclear. Either way, 40 isn't as outlandish as it was in the 2000s, and that pushed up to 45 before crashing.
there is a strong likelihood we are seeing a bubble.
Agreed. But if you drop out of the market and invest in other stuff, you would miss whatever the rest of the runup will do before it bursts, which could leave you worse off than someone just investing in the entire market by market cap. Ot could continue to run for 10-20 years, or it could pop this year, it's impossible to know since it relies heavily on investors continuing to believe the hype and companies continuing to have something to back up that hype.
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 39.95, a change of +0.09 from previous market close.Multpl
But of we look at the last 40 years or so, the CAPE has been higher, suggesting that we don’t know how what “normal” looks like going forward.
As you listed, crashes lead to sub 20 PEs. Mag7 PEs is not representative of Russel 2000 PEs. High PEs expect high growth for long period. Reality checks usually happen, but PE's are not universally high. Just with the oligarchs with White House guest passes.
crashes lead to sub 20 PEs
The 2000 crash didn't though, it was just over 20 at the trough. Jan 2003 was 21. That was almost as high as the peak in the 60s, and higher than the moment before Black Monday. So the market reverted to a mean that would be considered a peak just 20-30 years prior. 15 used to be a good marker for "average," and now that's the marker for the Great Recession.
Crashes used to lead to sub-10s, and now they crash to 15-20. The market has fundamentally changed with 401ks and IRAs.
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 39.95, a change of +0.09 from previous market close.Multpl
I know right? It’s not a bubble if there are transactions between the different companies in an industry. Nothing here shows that these investments are self-supporting circular, nor that all of this is propping up the economy.
Circle != bubble
I dont think we are in a bubble and I think all the media posts about it are just trying to make people sell their shares.
Sure there is no obvious profit yet but there will be. Once people start using AI in their phones and ask it questions, everything from baking to coding becomes way easier since its an interactive conversation, not a search result.
People will pay for that convenience since its a huge downside to not have access to it. Search results now seem very limited to me since I cant find out more about what its saying.
Its not interactive. Did you read my comment?
If you dont understand why people are going to pay for that, I dont know what to tell you.
Thats literally the entire thing about Ai, you can have a conversation, not static text and links.
The technology (at least with current methodologies) is flawed: that's why people are warning of the bubble bursting. We can't properly scale LLMs on our current grid in the same capacity as China. Our technologies are also incredibly energy-intensive compared to their technologies.
There is no intelligence, the hallucinations are likely fundamental, the cases of people being given dangerous or harmful advice are rising, human AI psychosis is a real concern, the sycophancy/bias confirmation is still present, and major actors in the AI space are existentially afraid of any form of regulation of the technology/industry (which does not signal confidence).
Also, it's critical to factor in the whole copyright issue with training data... one domino is all it takes to collapse the whole thing.
These things will evolve and change and improve, as always. When the first car was invented, there wasnt any proper roads for cars. Things change.
Copyright issues are not going to be an issue at all when entire countries are trying to get first to AGI. Nobody cares about that.
Hallucinations are flaws that will eventually be fixed, and the more gpu power that is available, the easier it will be to fix.
Are you personally invested in the AI/LLM space? I'm wondering why you chose to engage with very few of my arguments. Is your account a troll account? If you're not trolling: re-read. I will not engage further until you adequately address my points.
I was pretty clear: there is no intelligence. AGI is an absolute pipe dream and it will also be a far cry from actual intelligence if you look into it. Hallucinations won't be fixed unless the technology evolves - adding more GPU power won't be able to fix it.
The copyright theft is an extreme issue, regardless your hand-waving of it. Copyright law reform is not perceivably on the table. Major companies are caught red-handed stealing and these companies have no intention of compensating the rights-holders they stole from.
I think you are overestimating the amount people will pay for convenience or cling to their old ways.
Did e-readers kill the bookstore? Some people will always prefer to cook out of a book or dive into docs to write code.
Or look at the modern streaming landscape. In the beginning there was basically Netflix and everyone was fine paying that monthly fee for the convenience of streaming basically everything. Now we have 20+ vendors all charging for some subset of content. And we have seen a corresponding loss in subscribers as people hit the limit of what they are willing to pay for convenience.
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Are there many left where you are? The UK has one plant left, and we had to take it over so it didn't close completely.
I guess it's quite handy to have a steel plant if war breaks out and you're not relying on China for it all...
Except it's 17x larger & will take the entire US GDP with it.
fortune.com/2025/10/07/data-ce…
Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says
Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?Nick Lichtenberg (Fortune)
The problem with this theory is that it assumes Republicans will give up power to allow the Democrats to govern.
The part of Republicans blaming Democrats is spot on.
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I won't touch the entertainement / Hollywood reference to soft power as that deserves a discussion in its own right.
But as someone who works with ... or used to work with US diplomats abroad on a daily basis, I would urge you to educate yourself and people around you about the myriad of activities that US diplomats are engaged in. Contrary to conventional 'wisdom', US foreign policy consists of a lot more than bombing the Middle East and supporting Israel. Nobody talks or knows about all of the other things but I can tell you for a fact that American diplomats were (and in some cases still are) helping a lot of people in Eastern Europe. We were helping a lot of people. Shelters for the homeless, schools and museums for kids, whole new campuses for universities, orphanages, adn the list goes on, and on. There's a reason why over 75% of state department employees working abroad are not republicans. They are not the people most think they are.
We were doing good work with the Americans here. We were helping children, we were exposing corrupt oligarchs. We were in this fight together, not just in Eastern Europe but all over the world. Yes, even the US Marines stationed at Constanza and Novo Selo, ready to fight should the Russkies anything, deserve respect. As one marine told me recently "Don't worry, come what may, we will stay and fight with you".
Then everything changed this year. My old American friends were replaced with incompetent political commissars sent by the new idiocratic regime in DC.
The US marines are still here though, and they are still ready to die. I'm just not sure if its worth it anymore.
TLDR: Educate yourself and resist the temptation to parrot oversimplified narratives. Just because you only know about the bad and don't care to learn about the good, doesn't mean the latter doesn't exist.
Edit: in an attempt to preempt incoming windmills: I detest Trump, Netanyahu and imperialism in general. But that does not mean anything American (or whatever nationality) should be presented as black and white. There are 340 million Americans. Each one of them here is proof that America is not black and white, and neither are its citizens.
Let me guess though, Russia doing the same things is just pure evil or propaganda. Because guess what? Countries don't do any of the things you mention out of Christian charity, they do it for power and control.
GTFOH with your soft pedaling of this bullshit.
helping a lot of people in Eastern Europe
to support Israel and war on Russia
Soft power is always more effective than hard threats, because the corrupt CIA stooges pillaging their economies and contributing to destruction of humanity do so with the dignity that threats and bribes are secret and unobvious sycophancy to the US empire. Soft power means that your pawns are not explicitly exposed as your owned pawns.
That your job makes the colonization mission more effective, all glory to hypno Trump, is a cheaper and more direct path to complete capitulation by the colonial "governor generals".
People need housing, no one needs this AI crap. Even in boring engineering jobs using tools that solved problems decades ago, we are getting AI shoveled in left and right in places no one needs or wants it. And calling old features "AI" is also another problem.
And now these stupid "barking bears attacking fat sleeping people" videos are everywhere, and people seem to think they're real.
We should focus on natural intelligence first, that is to say each other, and education...
Oh and the headline should read "Every day", "everyday" is an adjective, like an everyday occurence.
Unfortunately Lemmy is rife with CSAM too, but the larger instances have done a pretty great job eliminating it.
Smaller instances still get dumped on sometimes.
Edit: actually it feels like it’s been a year or so since any CSAM spam events, so good job everyone
Yeah, unless you prevent image uploads it's possible and easy for someone to put that shit on a drive you own which then means you're technically distributing and harboring it.
Scary stuff
Too many people equate AI with LLMs only. LLMs are mostly bubbled bullshit, with a few limited use cases. But AI is a much broader topic. The really scary AI is the stuff we hear little to nothing about.
People also forget how dramatically tech can advance over time. Spoiled impatient Americans in particular want a finished product or they quickly write it off as "garbage". They forget every product we own and use was once "garbage".
If Lemmy is supposed to be the place where the most tech savvy people in the interest congregate
Says who? Mostly feels more like sales than R&D here. Which kinda fits with these pitches.
Feels more like the brick layer is equivalent to someone paid to create training data. You absolutely would want to ask the architects and engineers researching no ways in housing and construction. Not that they know what avenues of research will work out, but they do know the avenues of research.
No one expected the splash that LLMs or image diffusion models would make. Years later, the conversations on Lemmy are still dominated by people who still haven't looked up how they work.
GPTs completely nuked the whole field of natural language processing (NLP). People had dedicated years of their lives to solving tiny aspects of that. That got solved practically over night. Sentiment analysis? Just ask the chatbot. Some of the seemingly smart people who make seemingly informed criticisms of LLMs are NLP guys, who just can't let go of their old ideas.
From the entry for "zaibatsu" on Wikipedia:
Under the Allied occupation after the surrender of Japan, a partially successful attempt was made to dissolve the zaibatsu. Many of the economic advisors accompanying the SCAP administration had experience with the New Deal and were highly suspicious of monopolies and restrictive business practices, which they felt to be both inefficient, and to be a form of corporatocracy (and thus inherently anti-democratic).
The only difference? The zaibatsu actually diversified their operations.
Many of the economic advisors accompanying the SCAP administration had experience with the New Deal and were highly suspicious of monopolies and restrictive business practices
Your country was very different then.
They’ll just get repurposed for whatever extremely computationally intensive thing some computer engineer comes up with.
these are for AI, purpose built bespoke solutions to LLM problems. they'll age like fine piss.
Is that because they're so focussed on growth and advancement though?
Right now there's no incentive for efficiency. The focus is using venture capital to grab market share by implementing new products.
If suddenly everyone realised that the new iterations are more costly without any new functionality, the focus would switch and it might be worthwhile.
Right now, you can buy a $500 GPU, and run an LLM locally that can help you draft documents or code or transcribe audio. If that were scaled up to a subscription service surely it could be reasonably priced, yet profitable.
If all of that were the case... why aren't they ALREADY profitable? There are only 2 companies in the actual LLM/AI space, OpenAI and Anthropic, and OpenAI is already so dominant that Anthropic is a noncontender. Since that is the case, why aren't either of them profitable? If they were, they'd be screaming about it constantly; Altman would be on stage every single goddamn day boasting about it; OpenAI would be posting monthly, if not WEEKLY profit reports, just to show how much money they were making as """The Future™️"""; public investors would be POURING IN like nothing else mattered!!!
So where is it? Where's the profit? Where are the reports and press conferences, the investor statements and the IPO's? Where's the goddamn money, Lebowski???
And don't say they're in the "growth stage" or whatever. 4 years in and a TRILLION DOLLARS LATER, there's no profit to be seen, no remarkable products to use, nothing of substance except billions burned building bespoke data centers and polluting the planet. The whole AI """industry""" is a lie.
They're in a growth stage.
I don't agree with them, but venture capitalists believe they are inventing a god, and that the first to achieve it will enjoy never before seen power, control, and ultimately wealth.
If you have a stable job with good pay or good upward mobility in the company potential and don't have periods of unemployment, if it has a 401k, you're 401k is being invested while the market is down. When unemployment is high, the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate much lower to try and stimulate the economy. That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs that pay well enough can take out loans and/or refinance their current loans to do better than they were.
When the market recovers, you've had years of experience that you can now use for job hopping at more senior level roles when the job market recovers. Also a lot of late career people end up consulting for companies large and small with inexperienced staff. Those that didn't fare well in a career during a market downturn, it's either stagnation or hardship after hardship
It doesn't necessarily have to be office/lab work. I know people that grinded the past decade+ in restaurants until an owner would trust them to manage a restaurant including all the supplies and payroll and then trust them enough to partner on a another restaurant and then that be their ticket to financial security. Some in their 30s, some 40s, some 50s. It's a grind but at least they didn't end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
This is a really odd take.
you're 401k is being invested while the market is down
Sure but you just lost half your 401k, including half of what was invested while the market was overpriced.
When unemployment is high, [...] That results in lower rates for consumer loans. So people that have stable jobs [...] can take out loans
Yes, but lenders also tighten their criteria during these times because even a stable job is dramatically less stable during a recession or depression. It's very difficult to borrow money in an economic downturn.
When the market recovers, you've had years of experience
Sure but if the market didn't collapse you would still have those years of experience. During a collapse fewer people will have consistent employment.
It's a grind but at least they didn't end up drug addicts and alcoholics like so many others
Not sure where you were going with this part.
The universal economic truth is, in times of economic uncertainty the working class does the heavy lifting.
We can't prevent the bubble burst. We can hope it happens sooner rather than later but the bubble is baked in. So what companies and individuals can to is basically buy up their detritus at bargain prices. And then use them to make better, more solid companies that do not require $3T investment while showing no fucking profit.
But what will be left after it bursts?
Affordable GPUs? Less pushy AI commercials?
The wealthy will just move on to the next thing to inflate. Capitalists don't work. They don't care about anything other than ROI.
These valuations cannot be tied to ROI, even using Olympic level mental gymnastics. The market would collapse in a millisecond. They are tied to a fictional dimension 78 years in the future where everyone decided to work overtime without collapsing and being four times as focused while the planet magically starts healing itself and no major disaster happens and all wars escalated without destroying any infrastructure or upsetting any populations and the authoritarian revenge hypercapitalist disasterpiece currently boiling over in the global standard host country suddenly is unanimously accepted as a new way of life without a single adverse reactions or any systematic issues and a spontaneous miraculous salvation from the diseases and famine it has maliciously developed due to the Christian god both existing and subscribing to the polar opposite moral and ethical alignment that the elite privileged promille has hallucinated to fit a reality that also somehow pivoted from a complete mass psychosis into firm truth by way of some unforseen quirk in the laws of physics that every great mind and scientists missed that magically flip childish commercial folly into concrete reality without requiring effort and being the first consciousless entity to achieve autonomy and an ability to replicate exponentially without consuming resources and a renneissance of unity appears around a unilateral decision to kill brown skinned people that agree to live and reproduce in the most efficient manner for the single purpose of feeding that slaughtering machine and producing goods and resources for the machine and for the now sanctioned debauchery that the new religion has prescribed all of our species to perform
Which as you might imagine is more than a little stretch
They lucked into it. They made their cards for gamers, and various groups, AI researchers, bitcoin miners and others, discovered that they those gamer GPUs were really good for other tasks too. I think it took a while before Nvidia started making specialised cards for those purposes.
I can't really blame them for serving that market that they just lucked into. I can and will blame them for their terrible Linux support.
This only got downvotes in another thread. There is far worse that can happen than an AI bubble.
People get distracted over the fate that the pure speculative frenzy could be an AI bubble, and the harm to the hapless speculators and banksters could have a minor impact on the rest of the economy.
Reality is far worse than an AI bubble. It is a US mission for a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel that is too big to fail. Bubble in AI investments becomes unlikely, but total destruction of rest of US economy/prosperity becomes assured when the "plebs able to eat in America bubble" bursts is a sacrifice that a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel is willing to make.
If Americans are still able to afford to eat, then China or Iran wins.
please be more specific in what you don't understand. I guess that...
fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel
US government needs AGI for US military supremacy. That is Skynet (in Terminator movies, this is the military program to install AI in all the computers, and then AI chooses genocide nuclear launch). It is for Israel's benefit, because that is who owns US government. That it be fossil fuel powered, serves another key US oligarchy. Skynet for disinformation/sediction detection purposes just as much of a threat than its use for nuclear genocide.
Regardless of whether datacenters will make money solving business and individual problems or boosting productivity, the US will keep investing in order to get Skynet. You can be correct that "frontier datacenter LLM models" will not make money, but still lose on financial bets validating that idea. Instead of an AI bubble bursting, even more money chasing Skynet will come with Austerity for rest of population. The "valuation bubble" only pops when investor money flowing in dries up. It may only dry up after the collapse of the US.
It's the part where you say that Jews want skynet for world supremacy.
That's the "what?" part.
Yes, contemporary economy and free markets are so imaginary now that cascading effects and bubble pops like 2008 are very unlikely. American stock market in particular is so far off reality (even before AI boom) that it's basically a video game with no actual relevancy to true gross product. While China/Russia is a dictatorship with no representation of reality at all and can easily hide the burden of bad economic policies in the obedient peasant class.
So we have dictatorship with imaginary worlds vs "free markets" living in their own imaginary simulation. Economy is all made up now and cascades are basically impossible because that requires rationality.
The problem isn't the imaginary market, which I agree with the description. Its the leveraging of debt, to gamble in the market, which is what low interest rates enable.
And yes, our interest rates are VERY low still. I'm looking at some ARM packages right now, and their max lifetime interest rates are on par with what a typical mortgage was about a decade ago.
Idk if ghost city thing was a bubble tho.
China used planned infrastructure and bunch of confused journalists in US were like "what kind of government plans for housing of their citizens"
There are always bad actors in the system (see: hedge funds). But bubble? It can be argued that Ordos (the ghost city) was build too early, but it's filling in nicely. From 30k in 2009 to 2.000.000+ in 2020.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordos_Ci…
On the other hand noone ever build a damn whole modern city before for the people, so I'm not surprised they jumped the gun.
I'm sorry, I'm a little bit lost. I do agree that investment in owning rentals should be forbidden (and if city needs rental units they should be owned by the city).
I do not agree that "ghost cities" were built for speculative purposes. Speculants were buying them like crazy, yes, but the actual need for housing in regions planned (expected?) to undergo urbanization is real and the buildings were fulfilling that purpose.
Yeah, my server end with ml so I must be a tankie, makes sense.
It cannot be that I genuinely appreciate long term vision policies. I must be a tankie. And you're right, those cities were not needed, and planned urbanization must be planned only 2 years ahead because everything else is speculative bubble made for speculation.
All the projection.. You'll notice I didn't say you were a tankie, because you obviously are young counter culture honeymoon phase marxist. Please do me a favor and understand that actual communism will never occur either in society or your own philosophy mature, until you recognize flaws cannot be ignored. None of the actual reform leaders were ignorant of that. I also never mentioned any resemblance of urban planning. That the only path to actual societal renaissance and your own personal growth is to understand that if you overreact to something bad such as capitalism you are against the cause. Not for it. You are the breaks on developing real thoughts and ideas, and the reason is simple outrage. The most provenly useless strategy when facing adversity, completely identifiable by anyone past this first easily avoided step in processing and eventually developing personal and unique rational thought about the issue.
Objectively, it was bad to build unhabitable skyskrapers. It's humanity. When you attribute it to your ideology you perform a problem.
So you had nothing to say about whats wrong with planned urbanization, so you went again for a personal attack, and switching to something something about marxist or communism because... Well, honestly, I don't know why nor do I care.
This is the only thing of value you wrote
Objectively, it was bad to build unhabitable skyskrapers.
Yes. Those few bad actors who build tofu buildings in Tukery, Greece, China, Myanmar, Bangkok, or USA (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyatt_Re…) or wherever are bad and did wrong. What's your point?
You know my point. Because you asked for it several times. Then you try your best to have me said something else so you can be outraged.
Because you need to defend more than learn. You need to defend so much that you create outrage. It's immature.
This turned out a little bit long. I wonder if anyone will bother reading it.
A lot of this so-called 'bubble' is based on capital expenditure in support of a technology that probably doesn't have the capability AI company ceo's claim, but does have fascinating, and in terms of how society is currently arranged possibly extremely harmful, potential.
I know what ai companies have done, and what they are likely to do, in the pursuit of profit is shit; I would say that is a capitalism and fascist billionaire issue, rather than a tech issue but ymmv.
And there is the energy consumption problem. I think ai ceo's and tech broligarchs would privately say 'compare the energy consumed by my datacentre to the energy consumed by the workers it has replaced and you will see it is fairly efficient.......' (I am saying what I expect they think, not what I agree with).
The concern that the economy currently has all of its eggs in the ai basket seems reasonable, but I see why capital is betting on it as big as it is. Any concerns regarding the economic disruption of an ai bubble popping is nothing compared to what could happen if 50%+ white collar workers are made redundant. We saw the number of essential workers needed per 1 million people during covid: it wasn't many. Most jobs exist because the people exist to do them, corralled into the pyramidal structure of capitalism, where money trickles upwards. AI might push us into an era where the people exist but the jobs do not.
Anyway, I see this 'bubble' as being like the dotcom bubble, which didn't kill the web when it popped. The gpu's this capital expenditure has paid for are going to continue to be used, even as this economic period shakes itself out. They aren't just going to evaporate. It isn't like worthless debt being packaged up and resold without a chance of it being recouped, even if the prospect of what can be achieved with AI is currently over-valued.
I've been saying the same thing.
The 2008 housing bubble was predicated on cheap lending. It was all debt. It was massive amounts of toxic debt sold around Wall Street, like using Trump Coin or counterfeit cash used to buy a house.
The vast majority of what's happening here is not debt. Sure, some, but very little. Even the OpenAI AMD stock swap thing is swapping a gamble on stocks worth real money, not debt.
IMO the first sub-bubble to pop will be all the time and effort wasted on "Startups" that are nothing more than a couple people acting as a wrapper for an AI agent. That's not really going to impact the economy too much on its face, but suddenly a lot of people are going to go from being "entrepreneurs" to being truly unemployed.
Edit: Also, just saw this gem, and THIS is how you get a supercharged 2008 repeat, bank deregulation and $2.6 trillion in lending. Which is exactly how we got to 2008's subprime lending.
The vast majority of what’s happening here is not debt.
Most of what is going on in the AI sector is most certainly debt leveraged. Like, I'm looking at the books for several companies deep into AI.
I mean, how much profit is OpenAI turning right now?
I’m looking at the books for several companies
Well with all that proprietary information, please do enlighten us with specifics. Who has loans, and how much? From which banks?
Hold up everyone. It's not a bubble.
"So it is true that valuations are high but, in our view, generally not at levels that are as high as are typically seen at the height of a financial bubble," said Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer.
He's from GOLDMAN SACHS LOLOLOLO I THINK THEY WOULD RECOGNIZE A BUBBLE LOL ah fuck me our economy is gonna splode
Goldman Sachs also though NINA mortgages were a good idea, and they also thought it was a good idea to bundle bad mortgages in with good mortgages, and find a rater to mark them AAA investments.
And then we saw how that worked out.
yeah, how could this go wrong?
at least after the crash those houses could be lived in. these datacenters are made for one purpose, AI, and really would have to be completely gutted and refurbed for general purposes.... fun.
Timing is a fools game for sure. Bubble could pop next month, next year, or even later.
If you're old, make sure you have a good percent in bonds. If you're young, make sure you have 6-12 months saved in case of layoffs and keep saving - market will look completely different in 20-30 years anyways so it's not worth worrying about.
I don't think it's a bubble, first there is absolutely zero comparison to the housing bubble, which was a financial problem that caused housing prices to inflate, while the inherent value of housing stayed the same. This alleged AI bubble is mostly driven by companies that have lots of money, so it is not credit based, and there are underlying products that actually have increasing value.
The better comparison would be the dot com bubble, which was dominated by companies that didn't even have a product and didn't make any money. The frenzy is similar, but the fundamentals are different.
AI investments may cool down because obviously there is a frantic race in an attempt to get ahead.
But the reason I don't think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
They may lose money investing too heavily in this, but the most companies investing in this can afford it.
I think the most AI bubbly company isn't even in the diagram, because that is Tesla. Tesla might actually go down, because Musk is insane.
But in general if it is a bubble, it is a very very long one, Nvidia value has been exploding since 2016 based on their AI product dominance. If this is a bubble, I think it will go down in history as the longest living bubble ever.
Is the market frantic? Yes absolutely.
Is the value of some AI companies extremely high? Yes absolutely.
Is it a bubble that will burst? No if it's a bubble, this one will be more like deflating to a less frantic level, because ALL the main players have the money to weather losses.
And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble.
Its not a bubble but most people here dont think for themselves. They dont even seem to understand the connection between what news is put out, which analysts they choose to give attention, and for what purpose.
Imagine living your life and just believing whatever someone says in the news just because he has the title of analyst. And never thinking about who profits from that specific guy being on the news at that specific time. Who picked that guy to say what he does and why? Its not random.
Being able to influence the market is key to making a lot of money. How do people think they influence the market? This is how they do it. How else?
Sometimes they probably lose money too, specially when orange man opens his mouth and says something very stupid, like last Friday. But then they position themselves for the coming uptrend and make their money back, maybe even more then they had before, since they have giant pockets.
The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble
Hey! Before we go any further — if you want to support my work, please sign up for the premium version of Where’s Your Ed At, it’s a $7-a-month (or $70-a-year) paid product where every week you get a premium newsletter, all while supporting my free w…Edward Zitron (Ed Zitron's Where's Your Ed At)
Its not a bubble but most people here dont think for themselves.
But the ones who believe the AI hype think for themselves. Right.
And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble
Citation needed.
I don’t think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
Last I looked, the big AI companies are all hemorrhaging money.
It is not "normal" to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.
Only in made up financial land does that work, and causes cyclic depressions where the working class loses wealth, and the oligarchs further concentrate wealth in their hands.
And you said its driven by companies making money... the big AI companies driving this bubble are losing money.
It is not “normal” to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.
Maybe not, but it is absolutely normal to lose money for years to make a profit later.
Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it's a very profitable market for them now.
Microsoft tried some of the same with Windows Phone, where they invested billions for years before they gave up.
One of the most hyped AI companies is probably OpenAI, and they absolutely have products that makes them money. They are not profitable yet.
But among the bigger stock holders are Nvidia and Microsoft, and if OpenAI goes under, they will absolutely survive just fine. But I don't think they will.
OpenAI is owned by companies that know how to make money, and apparently OpenAI knows how to do it too, and has been quicker to make money on for instance ChatGPT than Google was on making money on YouTube.
Some AI companies will go down, that's the nature of being in a cutting edge business, and it's the nature of competition. But I think the AI business will mature and stabilize like most businesses have, not burst like a bubble.
Nobody called it a bubble when the smartphone market exploded. Because everybody could see the value of the product, although it's not quite the same, many companies have been forced out of the smartphone market due to competition. I think the AI market will be mostly similar.
Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it’s a very profitable market for them now.
Is it? They recently had mass layoffs in the Xbox division and had to jack up prices for gamepass. Compared to Sony and Nintendo, their console sales are pitiful. This is after pouring billions of dollars into the Xbox brand.
The funny thing about people who say it’s not a bubble because AI has value is that the asset category having value doesn’t prevent valuation bubbles from forming.
Houses have value: you can live in them. Yet there was a housing bubble.
The internet has value: you can watch cat videos on it. Yet there was a dot com bubble.
Tulip bulbs have value: you can grow pretty flowers with them. Yet there was a tulip bulb bubble.
In my experience, whenever you start reading news stories asking if something is a bubble and quoting investment bankers say, “no, it’s not a bubble,” well, usually it’s a bubble.
The housing bubble encompassed a metric ton of banks and companies that bought and sold shares of subprime mortgages in the billions of dollars and when everyone stopped paying and started defaulting, that caused a entire economic collapse.
Now unless someone can point me to an analysis where we have some tangible proof that banks and tons of companies are invested, not just using, AI, it seems to me the fall out would be limited to tech companies, which yeah would involve some job losses but nothing on the scale of the housing or dotcom bubble.
Now if you're referring to rich jackasses who are all in and banking on AI taking our jerbs? Sure that bubble will hurt them but they're not driving forces in the economy, just politics, which I guess could cause a economic crash if they get your idiot politicians more scared of them than the people with France on their minds.
run out if something more profitable comes around. Maybe a war or so.
If not for the banks investing hevily into it, i'd not be all that worried.
Every company in that list could shrink by half and we'd all be at worst back to covid times. Sure unemployment would suck, but do we REALLY need microsoft and NVidia to be as huge as they are?
I see "gold rush" the company selling shovels is making out like a bandit, everyone else is make a profit on the previous gen but requires a 10x cost increase for the next gen. And thus 10x more shovels.. As soon as 10x more shovels stops giving 10x+ improvements this is the wrong investment.
Hints are we already reached this point.
Some AI companies will pivot and improve in other ways with more linear costs/results.. The ones hoping the line continues to the moon.. I think they overshot.. I just don't know when it will fall back..
After Hyundai ICE Raid, Even South Korea’s Capitalists Question US Relations
Zip ties. Helicopters. Crowded cells. Guns trained on bewildered workers. Foul water. Forced vaccinations. An unconscious detainee left on the floor by negligent guards. A pregnant woman in handcuffs. A detainee being called “Rocket Man” (Donald Trump’s nickname for Kim Jong Un) by sneering federal agents. A menstruating woman forced to attend to her period with only toilet paper.These are the details of 316 South Korean nationals’ experiences in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention that have flooded the country’s media in the weeks after the September 4 raid on a Hyundai-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Ellabell, Georgia. A wave of fury is now pouring forth from across South Korean society — and the political consequences are only just beginning.
There is far more at stake than a single factory in Georgia, which by itself represented 8,500 jobs and $4.3 billion in investment, and is just one of 23 plants being built across the U.S. by Korean conglomerates. Since the raid, the U.S. and South Korea have announced that Korean workers will be able to use B-1 visas and ESTA visa waivers to continue working in the U.S. A new bill in Congress, the Partner with Korea Act, also seeks to extend 15,000 professional E-4 visas to South Koreans for the first time.
But U.S. flexibility on immigration is not all that matters. Seoul and Washington have yet to finalize their trade deal instigated by Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent blanket tariff on South Korean goods. At the current stage of negotiations, South Korea has agreed to accept a 15 percent tariff on its exports and provide tremendous investments and other financial agreements: $350 billion in state-backed short-term investment, $150 billion in private sector contracts with U.S. corporations, and a guarantee to purchase $100 billion in U.S. liquid natural gas. Despite so much on the table, a written agreement has yet to be produced, and negotiations are proving tense as the Trump administration presses for Seoul to provide the lion’s share of its $350 billion commitment in cash. While some of the shock over the ICE raid has died down, Washington’s conduct over the course of months of negotiations has also raised deeper questions in South Korea about the real nature of the alliance — and whether this is a relationship that can last.
The Art of the Steal
The anger unleashed by ICE’s abuse of Korean workers has been building for some time. Trump’s tariff threats, announced in March, hit South Korea at a difficult time, when the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol was unresolved, and the country was reeling from years of flagging economic performance.
The issue was not only a matter of timing. The Biden administration’s CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act also used similar (though less onerous) tariff threats to force South Korean conglomerates to transfer production and make large investments in the U.S. — which is how the Hyundai-LG plant made its way to Georgia in the first place. Having already complied with the previous administration, South Korea nevertheless now finds itself facing an even graver economic threat that could lead to recession: not just a 25 percent tariff on all exports (since reduced to 15 percent), but sector-based tariffs impacting most of South Korea’s key industries as well.
While much of the anger on either side of the Pacific has focused on the current administration in Washington, Trump’s tariffs are just the latest in a string of U.S. policies that have sought to deny South Korea its economic sovereignty, open its markets to foreign takeover, and degrade the rights and dignity of its working people.
After Hyundai ICE Raid, Even South Korea’s Capitalists Question US Relations | Truthout
Can the US and South Korea’s tenuous alliance survive Trump’s tariffs and ICE’s raid on a Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia?britney (Truthout)
Stop Ignoring the Browser: The Biggest Frontend Shift in a Decade
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Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Resi noti i risultati di laboratorio e delle simulazioni multiphysics del quantum computer “made in Italy”Redazione (LatinaToday)
Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
cross-posted from: feddit.it/post/22648165
Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Il computer quantistico fotonico della QuantHum Edge a Cisterna supera i 9.900 qubit: l’Italia firma il nuovo record
Resi noti i risultati di laboratorio e delle simulazioni multiphysics del quantum computer “made in Italy”Redazione (LatinaToday)
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