Largest bubble ever seen threatens US economy
The reason that the so-called booming economy feels like a complete lie to most people is because the economy is bifurcated. There’s the economy for the rich, which is absolutely soaring, and the economy for everyone else, which is basically in a recession. The scary part is that the entire illusion of national prosperity is being propped up by one of the biggest financial bubbles we have ever seen.
This all starts with a deep split. The spending of the wealthiest 10% of Americans now makes up one third of the entire country’s GDP. They are responsible for nearly half of all consumer spending. Meanwhile, for the vast majority, things feel stagnant because they are. The national GDP number is a mathematical trick, buoyed by a few powerhouse states, while regions representing nearly a third of the nation’s economic output, like the Rust Belt, are in or near a recession. The reason for this divide is simple. The stock market gains you hear about on the news only benefit a tiny slice of the population. The top one percent own half of all stocks. The top ten percent collectively own nearly ninety percent. The bottom half of the country owns just one percent. So when the market hits a new high, it is overwhelmingly just the rich getting richer.
Now, let’s talk about that bubble. By the classic Buffett Indicator, which compares the total stock market value to the size of the economy, the US is in unprecedented territory. This indicator is now over 219%. To put that in perspective, it was only 138% at the peak of the dotCom bubble and 105% before the 2008 crash. This is the largest stock market bubble in US history.
But the real insanity is what’s inside this bubble. The market is being carried by a handful of tech companies, often called the Ten Titans. These ten firms represent just a tiny fraction of all public companies, yet they make up over 30% of the entire US stock market’s value. In recent months, they alone were responsible for over half of all market growth. The entire system is dangerously concentrated in a few names. The fuel for this run up is the artificial intelligence boom. But now, even the leaders of the AI revolution admit it is a bubble. Furthermore, recent studies show that 95% of corporate AI projects are failing, and the rest are making very little money. It is pure speculation that's driving this frenzy.
The most critical part of this story is that this AI bubble is now masking a severe weakness in the real economy. The overall GDP growth number for 2025 looks okay, but a deeper look paints a different picture. One analysis found that investment in AI and information processing, a sector that is only 4% of the economy, accounted for a staggering 92% of all GDP growth in the first half of the year. Without the sugar rush of AI spending, the rest of the US economy grew at a near flat rate of just 0.1%. The real economy for most Americans is already on life support, and the AI bubble is the ventilator.
This sets up a perfect storm for stagflation, meaning a stagnant economy combined with persistent inflation. Prices remain high due to supply chain issues and trade policies, while the real economy struggles. To make matters worse, the AI boom is actively making inflation worse by consuming enormous amounts of electricity and driving up power costs for everyone. So we are left with a terrifying situation. A historic bubble concentrated in a few tech stocks is creating a mirage of prosperity, hiding a recession that most people are already living through. Everyone will suffer when this bubble inevitably pops.
adhocfungus likes this.
X is now offering me end-to-end encrypted chat — you probably shouldn't trust it yet | TechCrunch
X is now offering me end-to-end encrypted chat — you probably shouldn't trust it yet | TechCrunch
X's new encrypted messaging feature, XChat, has some red flags.Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai (TechCrunch)
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OpenAI will allow mature content, including erotica, to verified adult users as of December
Pardoned Capitol rioter charged with threatening to kill Hakeem Jeffries at NYC event this week
A pardoned Capitol rioter was arrested last weekend for allegedly threatening to kill House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Court documents obtained by CBS News said Christopher Moynihan was arrested Sunday after saying in text messages that he planned to "eliminate" Jeffries when the top House Democrat spoke at an event in New York City on Monday.
According to a court filing by prosecutors in the New York state criminal case, Moynihan wrote, "Hakeem Jeffries makes a speech in a few days in NYC I cannot allow this terrorist to live."
Pardoned Capitol rioter charged with threatening to kill Hakeem Jeffries at NYC event this week
A pardoned Capitol rioter was arrested last weekend for allegedly threatening to kill the top House Democrat.Scott MacFarlane (CBS News)
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Treasury tells employees not to share photos of White House ballroom construction
Images of the demolition of parts of the East Wing went viral on Monday, and Treasury’s headquarters next door to the White House has a front-row seat
The Treasury Department instructed employees not to share photos of the demolition of parts of the White House’s East Wing after images of construction equipment dismantling the facade of the building went viral online.
Treasury’s headquarters is located next door to the East Wing, giving employees there a front-row seat to the construction of Trump’s $250 million ballroom. The new project is set to replace parts of the East Wing.
Virginia Giuffre excluded from Maxwell case after naming 'so many names'
Virginia Giuffre's posthumous book has revealed her grief at not being allowed to testify against Ghislaine Maxwell because her narrative was seen as too complicated for the jury: "I'd named so many names."
Nobody's Girl, published Tuesday by Knopf, gives the most detailed account yet of Giuffre's life, her abuse at the hands of Jeffrey Epstein, her allegations against Prince Andrew and her battle for justice through the U.S. civil courts.
But she also describes her response to not being called as a witness in the sex trafficking trial that saw Epstein's ex-girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell jailed for her role in facilitating Epstein's campaign of abuse.
Giuffre died in Australia in April after what her family described as a suicide. Knopf said she had made it clear she wanted the book to be released.
https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-giuffre-ghislaine-maxwell-case-names-epstein-nobodys-girl-10910964
Virginia Giuffre excluded from Maxwell case after naming 'so many names'
Virginia Giuffre's posthumous book has revealed her grief at not being allowed to testify against Ghislaine Maxwell because her narrative was seen as too complicated for the jury: "I'd named so many names."
Nobody's Girl, published Tuesday by Knopf, gives the most detailed account yet of Giuffre's life, her abuse at the hands of Jeffrey Epstein, her allegations against Prince Andrew and her battle for justice through the U.S. civil courts.
But she also describes her response to not being called as a witness in the sex trafficking trial that saw Epstein's ex-girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell jailed for her role in facilitating Epstein's campaign of abuse.
Giuffre died in Australia in April after what her family described as a suicide. Knopf said she had made it clear she wanted the book to be released.
https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-giuffre-ghislaine-maxwell-case-names-epstein-nobodys-girl-10910964
copymyjalopy likes this.
Which distro for a non-technical windows user?
Hi everyone, I am planning to install linux on my friends laptop and I am not sure which distro to install for them.
The options I am considering:
- Fedora: I have it on my PC and since I will be the first person to be asked, I thought it would be best if I know the distro well
- Mint: is a default suggestion, but I am not sure if it is different enough from the Windows look that one does not expect it to behave the same as Windows
- Ubuntu: most widely available in forums, etc. And a good starting point in my opinion
What do you guys think?
EDIT: Thanks for all the suggestions, I think I'll stick with Fedora and let them try Gnome, KDE and Cinnamon 😀
KDE Plasma 6.5 released
cross-posted from: lemmy.ml/post/37847733
How do you make a great desktop into a fantastic desktop? Easy — chip away at the rough bits, polish the good stuff, and add awesomeness. After 29 years of development, KDE’s got the foundation nailed down. Plasma 6.5 is all about fine-tuning, fresh features, and a making everything smooth and sleek for everyone.Ready to see what’s new? Let’s dive into Plasma 6.5!
Highlights:
- Automatic Theme Transitions: Configure when your theme will transition from light to dark and back.
- Caret Text Navigation: Zoom now swoops in to where you type
- KRunner Fuzzy Search: Even if you type it wrong, KRunner will find it!
KDE Plasma 6.5 released
How do you make a great desktop into a fantastic desktop? Easy — chip away at the rough bits, polish the good stuff, and add awesomeness. After 29 years of development, KDE’s got the foundation nailed down. Plasma 6.5 is all about fine-tuning, fresh features, and a making everything smooth and sleek for everyone.Ready to see what’s new? Let’s dive into Plasma 6.5!
Highlights:
- Automatic Theme Transitions: Configure when your theme will transition from light to dark and back.
- Caret Text Navigation: Zoom now swoops in to where you type
- KRunner Fuzzy Search: Even if you type it wrong, KRunner will find it!
KDE Plasma 6.5 released
How do you make a great desktop into a fantastic desktop? Easy — chip away at the rough bits, polish the good stuff, and add awesomeness. After 29 years of development, KDE’s got the foundation nailed down. Plasma 6.5 is all about fine-tuning, fresh features, and a making everything smooth and sleek for everyone.
Ready to see what’s new? Let’s dive into Plasma 6.5!
Highlights:
- Automatic Theme Transitions: Configure when your theme will transition from light to dark and back.
- Caret Text Navigation: Zoom now swoops in to where you type
- KRunner Fuzzy Search: Even if you type it wrong, KRunner will find it!
like this
I never used khotkeys, but would input-remapper do what you want? You can remap keys or execute macros on key presses. It supports X11 and Wayland.
github.com/sezanzeb/input-rema…
GitHub - sezanzeb/input-remapper: 🎮 ⌨ An easy to use tool to change the behaviour of your input devices.
🎮 ⌨ An easy to use tool to change the behaviour of your input devices. - sezanzeb/input-remapperGitHub
Yahya Sinwar personally allowed captive to spent time with a friend after Israel killed the captive's family
Yarden Bibas: I asked Hamas chief Sinwar to hold me together with my friend David Cunio
In an interview with Israeli TV, Yarden Bibas said that after learning his wife and children were killed, the Hamas leader asked how he could help and let him spend a few days with his friend, another hostage still in GazaHaaretz
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Silvia Cunio: act of unexpected humanity
You think that's surprising, just wait'll you hear about Palestinians in general!
50 fact briefs about climate change science published in collaboration with Gigafact!
Fact Briefs Summary PageIn April 2024 we announced the (renewed) collaboration between Gigafact and Skeptical Science to create fact briefs, short but credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. Initially, we published new fact briefs on Saturdays, but switched to Tuesdays earlier this year and while we try to have a new fact brief out each week, we sometimes miss a week due to time constraints and vacations.
This site is a fucking mess. I had to go to an entirely different site to find the damn list on one page.
Edit
...totally missed op provided that. But I clicked the link before coming to the comments
Sorry, I don't understand why you say this. Can you explain?
Edit: Maybe it's the "skeptical" thing. Well this site is about the following
Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
The web we know is efficient—but fragile. Power and innovation have drifted away from users and into platforms. A new generation of open architectures—ActivityPub, Solid, and beyond—offers a way to take control back.
techtonicshift.vivaldi.net/202…
Roads to the User-Owned Web - TechTonic Shift
The web we know is efficient—but fragile. Power and innovation have drifted away from users and into platforms. A new generation of open architectures…ghrasko (TechTonic Shift)
An inquisitor knows that the proper way to do it is to push her off a tall ledge.
If she air-dashes back, she’s trans.
8 men own same wealth as half the world
Just 8 men own same wealth as half the world
Meet the 8 men who are wealthier than half the globe
Meet the 8 men who are wealthier than half the globe
Meet the 8 men whose wealth equals that of the world's poorest 3.6 billion peopleAimee Picchi (CBS News)
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then don't stop. just keep going.
this must be what Reagan meant by "trickle down economics"
EU criticised for pausing sanctions on Israel in response to Trump Gaza efforts
The EU has been criticised for pausing sanctions against Israel’s government in response to Donald Trump’s peacemaking efforts in the Middle East, as the fragile ceasefire came under threat.
After meeting EU foreign ministers on Monday, the European foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, announced a pause on efforts to suspend preferential trade with Israel and sanctions against people responsible for fuelling the conflict on both sides
EU criticised for pausing sanctions on Israel in response to Trump Gaza efforts
Pause on move to freeze preferential trade pact comes amid scramble to shore up fragile ceasefireJennifer Rankin (The Guardian)
adhocfungus likes this.
Just forget about Israel still killing people in the West Bank (and in Gaza) please.
The EU is a subservient to Israel. They never put on sanctions and now drop their threats at the earliest fake opportunity.
EU criticised for pausing sanctions on Israel in response to Trump Gaza efforts
The EU has been criticised for pausing sanctions against Israel’s government in response to Donald Trump’s peacemaking efforts in the Middle East, as the fragile ceasefire came under threat.
After meeting EU foreign ministers on Monday, the European foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, announced a pause on efforts to suspend preferential trade with Israel and sanctions against people responsible for fuelling the conflict on both sides.**
EU criticised for pausing sanctions on Israel in response to Trump Gaza efforts
Pause on move to freeze preferential trade pact comes amid scramble to shore up fragile ceasefireJennifer Rankin (The Guardian)
It's not even sanctions, it's just pausing "preferential trade with Israel".
The EU want to list everything because.. trade but also because European bureaucrats love a bit of colonialism
”Esperanto estas por mi fenestro al la mondo”
Por kio utilas Esperanto? Juna esperantisto en Kabulo, respondas: ”Mi esperas, ke Esperanto helpos al mi lerni pri aliaj kulturoj kaj komuniki kun homoj ekster mia lando. Ĝi donas al mi senton, ke mi ne estas tute izolita.” Sed dum li mesaĝadis kun Libera Folio, la retligo kun la ekstera mondo estis interrompita de la talibanoj.
liberafolio.org/2025/10/21/esp…
How I Almost Got Hacked By A 'Job Interview'
How I Almost Got Hacked By A 'Job Interview'
I was 30 seconds away from running malware, Here's how a sophisticated scam operation almost got me, and why every developer needs to read this.David Dodda
Illinois Wants Climate Education in Schools. Now Teachers Need to Figure Out How to Make It Happen.
Illinois Wants Climate Education in Schools. Now Teachers Need to Figure Out How to Make It Happen. - Inside Climate News
It’s the seventh state to pass a law requiring climate education in public schools. The requirement will kick in next fall.Inside Climate News
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I’m guessing you would have to forcefully remove all of the conservative nuts jobs from positions within the education departments.
Cement is pretty cheap, and you can mix it with any sort of rocks you find if you need it. Sand is good too whatever.
US DOE climate report colored by past views of its authors, critics say | A review by POLITICO’s E&E News found that most of the authors have spoken out against the endangerment finding
DOE climate report colored by past views of its authors, critics say - E&E News by POLITICO
A review by POLITICO's E&E News found that most of the authors have spoken out against the endangerment finding, once called the "holy grail" of climateScott Waldman (E&E News by POLITICO)
Here's an in-depth rebuttal to all of the lies peddled in that original report: interactive.carbonbrief.org/do…
Of course this regime is just pushing straight up propaganda and lies for Big Oil. This shouldn't be surprising anymore. The question is, what consequences will these 5 scientists face once the rest of the regime is dealt with for their crimes in the coming years/decade.
Trump is pushing allies to buy US gas. It’s bad economics – and a catastrophe for the climate
The current US administration wants to protect fossil fuel profits, slow the clean energy transition and curb China’s influence — whatever the cost to allies or the climate.
Trump is pushing allies to buy US gas. It’s bad economics – and a catastrophe for the climate
As China secures its role in clean tech exports, the US is doubling down on fossil fuels – and pushing allies to buy US gas.The Conversation
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They're literally trying everything possible to destroy this planet. There is no reason to delay this, maybe maybe a few people will make good money on this, but mostly this is just a good thing for everyone AND the planet.
So yeah, let's reverse that too
The Methane Hunters of Melendugno | How Italian activists are fighting to expose the true scale of the climate harm caused by a giant European pipeline.
The Methane Hunters of Melendugno - DeSmog
Data from thermal camera raises questions over scope of climate-damaging pollution from gas imported via Adriatic sea.Vittoria Torsello (DeSmog)
According to Snam, the leak was caused by “the imperfect internal seal of a worn component,” which it would replace “in the coming months.”
Such selfless stewardship!
Brazil greenlights oil drilling in Amazon as environmentalists raise alarm
Brazil greenlights oil drilling in Amazon as environmentalists raise alarm
Conservationists argue president’s oil expansion plans clash with his image as a global leader on climate changeGuardian staff reporter (The Guardian)
The costs of Trump’s campaign to censor climate science
Datasets have been removed, federal websites scrubbed and thousands of Noaa staff purged. Experts warn disaster defences are at risk
This post uses a gift link with a view count limit. If it runs out, there is an archived copy of the article
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After closing coal plants, Idaho Power is the rare utility cutting rates
After closing coal plants, Idaho Power is the rare utility cutting rates | Latitude Media
The utility asked regulators to lower electricity rates in Oregon, even as its peers raise them — and Trump pushes coal as the solution.Alexander C. Kaufman (Latitude Media)
POV: you finally installed solar panels, waiting all summer for the roof to be ready, and suddenly it's October
Search The Big Lebowski Quotes
Find and share your favorites, with stills from the movie.thebiglebow.ski
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Looking forward to seeing it, I'd love to get solar and to ditch gas for a heat pump, but funds are not there 😔
one day... one day...
A heat pump is also in my future, but the funds need to recover from this round of energy efficiency interventions first.
But even before then, having resistive heating might not be the best (or the cheapest) but I love to be able to measure all my house energy needs in kWh without conversions (sure if you have gas you can count cubic meters, but it's a lot of approximations).
Opinion | Move nitrogen fertilizer higher on your worry list | Two huge threats to our environment come from this exact same source.
Opinion | Move nitrogen fertilizer higher on your worry list
"Recognizing that agriculture’s GHG emissions are huge, some might assume the biggest sources are animal agriculture or carbon dioxide from tractors and trucks. But that’s wrong," Jean Wagenius writes.Jean Wagenius
There is no paradox in the social contract.
Tolerance is mutual. Respect is mutual. Kindness is mutual.
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.
How Soon Will the Seas Rise? | Quanta Magazine
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.Evan Howell (Quanta Magazine)
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are Just Stupid
cross-posted from: piefed.ca/post/228244
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are Just Stupid — Bloomberg
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are Just Stupid — Bloomberg - CleanTechnica
Two thirds of the heat related deaths in the UK this summer can be traced directly to burning fossil fuels a new study shows.Steve Hanley (CleanTechnica)
limer
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •In my headcanon about the future of the USA, this is one part of the perfect storm that will make me eat at a soup kitchen.
Another part includes the toppling of the Fed independence, and Trump setting interest rates to make the most money for the insiders. “Surprise! Interest rates lowered|rose today, experts are shocked”
Then there are the tariffs, and the purges against immigrants. Raising the cost of an apple to 3$ per fruit.
The results will be similar to 1990s Russia. And maybe that is their end game for the Trump administration. Because people can make a lot of money buying companies and land, like in Russia
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to limer • • •I would posit that it's actually going to be a lot worse than 90s Russia. The core reason boils down to built-in resilience, or the total lack thereof.
When the collapse happened in USSR, life didn't actually change that drastically for most. Housing was state-owned, so nobody got evicted. You just stayed in your apartment with your free rent. Public transportation was massive and designed to be maintainable with minimal resources, so it kept running, meaning people could still get around. There was already a culture of kitchen gardens, barter, and fixing things yourself because consumer goods were always scarce. You were used to making do.
Now, flip that to the US where the entire society is built on a just-in-time, hyper-efficient, profit-driven model that is incredibly fragile. The housing market is dependent on mortgages, jobs, and property taxes. When the paychecks stop, the evictions start, and you get a massive flood of homeless refugees from the suburbs, which are completely car-dependent and unsustainable without fuel. American food system is a miracle of logistics that gets lettuce from California to New York in diesel trucks. Break that chain and the supermarket shelves are empty in three days. Most Americans don't have a clue how to grow a potato.
Then there's the quality of goods problem. Soviet consumer products were crappy but built like tanks and designed to be repaired. The ones in the west are designed for planned obsolescence. When the global supply chain for new products snaps, people end up with useless and un-fixable junk. Americans are also in a worse shape physically. Trying to suddenly live a physically demanding, subsistence lifestyle would be very difficult for large swaths of the population.
Finally, there's the social fabric. Soviet families were often multi-generational and geographically close, providing a built-in support network. American families are atomized, spread across the country, and often barely tolerate each other during the holidays. In a crisis, you're likely to be stranded among strangers. Add to that all the political divisions, and things start to look a lot like pre-civil-war Yugoslavia, it's a recipe for things getting very ugly, very fast. The Soviet collapse was awful, but it was awful within a system that was already braced for hardship. The US collapse would be like a comfortable person who has never missed a meal suddenly being thrown into the wilderness with no tools or skills.
limer
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •I think you are correct overall, it will be like pigs to the slaughter. But I have two things to add:
The first is that while people in bad situations mostly flounder, it opens up a very rapid series of social changes. Not all of them bad.
The second is this is the first opportunity to organize socialism in the USA at a large scale. And future revolution will see this as its birth moment
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to limer • • •