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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

One of those rare lucid moments by the stock market? Is this the market correction that everyone knew was coming, or is some famous techbro going to technobabble some more about AI overlords and they return to their fantasy values?
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in reply to toothbrush

It's quite lucid. The new thing uses a fraction of compute compared to the old thing for the same results, so Nvidia cards for example are going to be in way less demand. That being said Nvidia stock was way too high surfing on the AI hype for the last like 2 years, and despite it plunging it's not even back to normal.
in reply to themoonisacheese

If AI is cheaper, then we may use even more of it, and that would soak up at least some of the slack, though I have no idea how much.
in reply to themoonisacheese

How is the "fraction of compute" being verified? Is the model available for independent analysis?
in reply to CameronDev

Its freely availible with a permissive license, but I dont think that that claim has been verified yet.
in reply to toothbrush

And the data is not available. Knowing the weights of a model doesn't really tell us much about its training costs.
in reply to themoonisacheese

My understanding is it's just an LLM (not multimodal) and the train time/cost looks the same for most of these.

I feel like the world's gone crazy, but OpenAI (and others) is pursing more complex model designs with multimodal. Those are going to be more expensive due to image/video/audio processing. Unless I'm missing something that would probably account for the cost difference in current vs previous iterations.

in reply to jacksilver

The thing is that R1 is being compared to gpt4 or in some cases gpt4o. That model cost OpenAI something like $80M to train, so saying it has roughly equivalent performance for an order of magnitude less cost is not for nothing. DeepSeek also says the model is much cheaper to run for inferencing as well, though I can’t find any figures on that.
in reply to will_a113

My main point is that gpt4o and other models it's being compared to are multimodal, R1 is only a LLM from what I can find.

Something trained on audio/pictures/videos/text is probably going to cost more than just text.

But maybe I'm missing something.

in reply to jacksilver

The original gpt4 is just an LLM though, not multimodal, and the training cost for that is still estimated to be over 10x R1’s if you believe the numbers. I think where R 1 is compared to 4o is in so-called reasoning, where you can see the chain of though or internal prompt paths that the model uses to (expensively) produce an output.
in reply to will_a113

I'm not sure how good a source it is, but Wikipedia says it was multimodal and came out about two years ago - en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4. That being said.

The comparisons though are comparing the LLM benchmarks against gpt4o, so maybe a valid arguement for the LLM capabilites.

However, I think a lot of the more recent models are pursing architectures with the ability to act on their own like Claude's computer use - docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/bui… which DeepSeek R1 is not attempting.

Edit: and I think the real money will be in the more complex models focused on workflows automation.

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in reply to jacksilver

Yea except DeepSeek released a combined Multimodal/generation model that has similar performance to contemporaries and a similar level of reduced training cost ~20 hours ago:

huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/Jan…

in reply to WalnutLum

Holy smoke balls. I wonder what else they have ready to release over the next few weeks. They might have a whole suite of things just waiting to strategically deploy
in reply to jacksilver

One of the things you're missing is the same techniques are applicable to multimodality. They've already released a multimodal model: seekingalpha.com/news/4398945-…
in reply to toothbrush

Most rational market: Sell off NVIDIA stock after Chinese company trains a model on NVIDIA cards.

Anyways NVIDIA still up 1900% since 2020 …

how fragile is this tower?

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

"wiped"? There was money and it ceased to exist?
in reply to Phen

The money went back into the hands of all the people and money managers who sold their stocks today.

Edit: I expected a bloodbath in the markets with the rhetoric in this article, but the NASDAQ only lost 3% and the DJIA was positive today...

Nvidia was significantly over-valued and was due for this. I think most people who are paying attention knew that

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in reply to protist

There’s been a lot of disproportionate hype around deepseek lately
in reply to protist

Trump counterbalance keeping it in check but my gut is saying once tariffs come in February there's going to be a market correction. Pure speculation on my part.
in reply to Hexadecimalkink

You don't have to say speculation when talking about the future of stocks. It's implied unless you are a time traveler in which case you should lead with that.
in reply to Jimmycakes

I am a time traveller and I was trying to throw you off my trail but I seem to have failed.
in reply to protist

To be fair, NQ futures momentarily dropped 5% before recovering some. A few days from now on would be interesting.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Emergence of DeepSeek raises doubts about sustainability of western artificial intelligence boom


Is the "emergence of DeepSeek" really what raised doubts? Are we really sure there haven't been lots of doubts raised previous to this? Doubts raised by intelligent people who know what they're talking about?

in reply to protist

Ah, but those "intelligent" people cannot be very intelligent if they are not billionaires. After all, the AI companies know exactly how to assess intelligence:

Microsoft and OpenAI have a very specific, internal definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) based on the startup’s profits, according to a new report from The Information. ...
The two companies reportedly signed an agreement last year stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. That’s far from the rigorous technical and philosophical definition of AGI many expect.
(Source)
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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

I'd argue this is even worse than Sputnik for the US because Sputnik spurred technological development that boosted the economy. Meanwhile, this is popping the economic bubble in the US built around the AI subscription model.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Hilarious that this happens the week of the 5090 release, too. Wonder if it'll affect things there.
in reply to Ech

Apparently they have barely produced any so they will all be sold out anyway.
in reply to drspod

And without the fake frame bullshit they're using to pad their numbers, its capabilities scale linearly with the 4090. The 5090 just has more cores, Ram, and power.

If the 4000-series had had cards with the memory and core count of the 5090, they'd be just as good as the 50-series.

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in reply to chiliedogg

By that point you will have to buy the Mico fission reactor addon to power the 6090. It's like Nvidia looked at the power triangle of power / price and preformence and instead of picking two they just picked one and to hell with the rest.
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in reply to lordnikon

Nah, they just made the triangle bigger with AI (/s)
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Lol serves you right for pushing AI onto us without our consent
in reply to SplashJackson

The determination to make us use it whether we want to or not really makes me resent it.
in reply to jsomae

Text below, for those trying to avoid Twitter:

Most people probably don't realize how bad news China's Deepseek is for OpenAI.

They've come up with a model that matches and even exceeds OpenAI's latest model o1 on various benchmarks, and they're charging just 3% of the price.

It's essentially as if someone had released a mobile on par with the iPhone but was selling it for $30 instead of $1000. It's this dramatic.

What's more, they're releasing it open-source so you even have the option - which OpenAI doesn't offer - of not using their API at all and running the model for "free" yourself.

If you're an OpenAI customer today you're obviously going to start asking yourself some questions, like "wait, why exactly should I be paying 30X more?". This is pretty transformational stuff, it fundamentally challenges the economics of the market.

It also potentially enables plenty of AI applications that were just completely unaffordable before. Say for instance that you want to build a service that helps people summarize books (random example). In AI parlance the average book is roughly 120,000 tokens (since a "token" is about 3/4 of a word and the average book is roughly 90,000 words). At OpenAI's prices, processing a single book would cost almost $2 since they change $15 per 1 million token. Deepseek's API however would cost only $0.07, which means your service can process about 30 books for $2 vs just 1 book with OpenAI: suddenly your book summarizing service is economically viable.

Or say you want to build a service that analyzes codebases for security vulnerabilities. A typical enterprise codebase might be 1 million lines of code, or roughly 4 million tokens. That would cost $60 with OpenAI versus just $2.20 with DeepSeek. At OpenAI's prices, doing daily security scans would cost $21,900 per year per codebase; with DeepSeek it's $803.

So basically it looks like the game has changed. All thanks to a Chinese company that just demonstrated how U.S. tech restrictions can backfire spectacularly - by forcing them to build more efficient solutions that they're now sharing with the world at 3% of OpenAI's prices. As the saying goes, sometimes pressure creates diamonds.

Last edited 4:23 PM · Jan 21, 2025 · 932.3K Views

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in reply to NoSpotOfGround

Thank you for bringing the text over, I won’t click on X.
in reply to jsomae

Deepthink R1(the reasoning model) was only released on January 20. Still took a while though.
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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Good. LLM AIs are overhyped, overused garbage. If China putting one out is what it takes to hack the legs out from under its proliferation, then I'll take it.
in reply to Etterra

Cutting the cost by 97% will do the opposite of hampering proliferation.
in reply to davel

No but it would be nice if it would turn back in the tool it was. When it was called machine learning like it was for the last decade before the bubble started.
in reply to davel

What DeepSeek has done is to eliminate the threat of "exclusive" AI tools - ones that only a handful of mega-corps can dictate terms of use for.

Now you can have a Wikipedia-style AI (or a Wookiepedia AI, for that matter) that's divorced from the C-levels looking to monopolize sectors of the service economy.

in reply to UnderpantsWeevil

It’s been known for months that they were living on borrowed time: Google “We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI” Leaked Internal Google Document Claims Open Source AI Will Outcompete Google and OpenAI
in reply to davel

It's not about hampering proliferation, it's about breaking the hype bubble. Some of the western AI companies have been pitching to have hundreds of billions in federal dollars devoted to investing in new giant AI models and the gigawatts of power needed to run them. They've been pitching a Manhattan Project scale infrastructure build out to facilitate AI, all in the name of national security.

You can only justify that kind of federal intervention if it's clear there's no other way. And this story here shows that the existing AI models aren't operating anywhere near where they could be in terms of efficiency. Before we pour hundreds of billions into giant data center and energy generation, it would behoove us to first extract all the gains we can from increased model efficiency. The big players like OpenAI haven't even been pushing efficiency hard. They've just been vacuuming up ever greater amounts of money to solve the problem the big and stupid way - just build really huge data centers running big inefficient models.

in reply to Etterra

Overhyped? Sure, absolutely.

Overused garbage? That’s incredibly hyperbolic. That’s like saying the calculator is garbage. The small company where I work as a software developer has already saved countless man hours by utilising LLMs as tools, which is all they are if you take away the hype; a tool to help skilled individuals work more efficiently. Not to replace skilled individuals entirely, as Sam Dead eyes Altman would have you believe.

in reply to dependencyinjection

LLMs as tools,


Yes, in the same way that buying a CD from the store, ripping to your hard drive, and returning the CD is a tool.

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

As a European, gotta say I trust China's intentions more than the US' right now.
in reply to DigitalDilemma

With that attitude I am not sure if you belong in a Chinese prison camp or an American one. Also, I am not sure which one would be worse.
in reply to Doomsider

They should conquer a country like Switzerland and split it in 2

At the border, they should build a prison so they could put them in both an American and a Chinese prison

in reply to DigitalDilemma

Not really a question of national intentions. This is just a piece of technology open-sourced by a private tech company working overseas. If a Chinese company releases a better mousetrap, there's no reason to evaluate it based on the politics of the host nation.

Throwing a wrench in the American proposal to build out $500B in tech centers is just collateral damage created by a bad American software schema. If the Americans had invested more time in software engineers and less in raw data-center horsepower, they might have come up with this on their own years earlier.

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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Wait. You mean every major tech company going all-in on "AI" was a bad idea. I, for one, am shocked at this revelation.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Remember to cancel your Microsoft 365 subscription to kick them while they're down
in reply to PlantPowerPhysicist

I don’t have one to cancel, but I might celebrate today by formatting the old windows SSD in my system and using it for some fast download cache space or something.
in reply to wulrus

We will have true AI once it is capable of answering “I don’t know” instead of making things up
in reply to تحريرها كلها ممكن

Turns out, some people i know are apparently fake AI.
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in reply to تحريرها كلها ممكن

Which is actually something Deepseek is able to do.

Even if it can still generate garbage when used incorrectly like all of them, it's still impressive that it will tell you it doesn't "know" something, but can try to help if you give it more context. which is how this stuff should be used anyway.

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Wow, China just fucked up the Techbros more than the Democratic or Republican party ever has or ever will. Well played.
in reply to Doomsider

Well.... if there is one thing I have to commend CCP is they are unafraid to crack down on billionaires after all.
in reply to Doomsider

Democrats and Republicans have been shoveling truckload after truckload of cash into a Potemkin Village of a technology stack for the last five years. A Chinese tech company just came in with a dirt cheap open-sourced alternative and I guarantee you the American firms will pile on to crib off the work.

Far from fucking them over, China just did the Americans' homework for them. They just did it in a way that undercuts all the "Sam Altman is the Tech Messiah! He will bring about AI God!" holy roller nonsense that was propping up a handful of mega-firm inflated stock valuations.

Small and Mid-cap tech firms will flourish with these innovations. Microsoft will have to write the last $13B it sunk into OpenAI as a lose.

in reply to Doomsider

It's kinda funny. Their magical bullshitting machine scored higher on made up tests than our magical bullshitting machine, the economy is in shambles! It's like someone losing a year's wages in sports betting.
in reply to kshade

Just because people are misusing tech they know nothing about does not mean this isn't an impressive feat.

If you know what you are doing, and enough to know when it gives you garbage, LLMs are really useful, but part of using them correctly is giving them grounding context outside of just blindly asking questions.

in reply to Naia

It is impressive, but the marketing around it has really, really gone off the deep end.
in reply to Doomsider

Didn't donald add like $500B for AI? Seems it'salmost enough to pay the -$600B nVidia lost...
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Looks like it is not any smarter than the other junk on the market. The confusion that people consider AI as "intelligence" may be rooted in their own deficits in that area.

And now people exchange one American Junk-spitting Spyware for a Chinese junk-spitting spyware. Hurray! Progress!

in reply to Treczoks

It is progress in a sense. The west really put the spotlight on their shiny new expensive toy and banned the export of toy-maker parts to rival countries.

One of those countries made a cheap toy out of jank unwanted parts for much less money and it's of equal or better par than the west's.

As for why we're having an arms race based on AI, I genuinely dont know. It feels like a race to the bottom, with the fallout being the death of the internet (for better or worse)

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in reply to Treczoks

The difference is that you can actually download this model and run it on your own hardware (if you have sufficient hardware). In that case it won't be sending any data to China. These models are still useful tools. As long as you're not interested in particular parts of Chinese history of course ;p
in reply to Treczoks

With understanding LLM, I started to understand some people and their "reasoning" better. That's how they work.
in reply to Treczoks

artificial intelligence

AI has been used in game development for a while and i havent seen anyone complain about the name before it became synonymous with image/text generation

in reply to RandomVideos

It was a misnomer there too, but at least people didn't think a bot playing C&C would be able to save the world by evolving into a real, greater than human intelligence.
in reply to Treczoks

It is open source, so it should be audited and if there are back doors they can be plugged in a fork
in reply to Treczoks

And now people exchange one American Junk-spitting Spyware for a Chinese junk-spitting spyware.


LLMs aren't spyware, they're graphs that organize large bodies of data for quick and user-friendly retrieval. The Wikipedia schema accomplishes a similar, abet more primitive, role. There's nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the technology, just the applications that Westoids doggedly insist it be used for.

If you no longer need to boil down half a Great Lake to create the next iteration of Shrimp Jesus, that's good whether or not you think Meta should be dedicating millions of hours of compute to this mind-eroding activity.

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in reply to UnderpantsWeevil

There’s nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the technology, just the applications that Westoids doggedly insist it be used for.


Westoids? Are you the type of guy I feel like I need to take a shower after talking to?

in reply to UnderpantsWeevil

I think maybe it's naive to think that if the cost goes down, shrimp jesus won't just be in higher demand. Shrimp jesus has no market cap, bullshit has no market cap. If you make it more efficient to flood cyberspace with bullshit, cyberspace will just be flooded with more bullshit. Those great lakes will still boil, don't worry.
in reply to daltotron

I think maybe it’s naive to think that if the cost goes down, shrimp jesus won’t just be in higher demand.


Not that demand will go down but that economic cost of generating this nonsense will go down. The number of people shipping this back and forth to each other isn't going to meaningfully change, because Facebook has saturated the social media market.

If you make it more efficient to flood cyberspace with bullshit, cyberspace will just be flooded with more bullshit.


The efficiency is in the real cost of running the model, not in how it is applied. The real bottleneck for AI right now is human adoption. Guys like Altman keep insisting a new iteration (that requires a few hundred miles of nuclear power plants to power) will finally get us a model that people want to use. And speculators in the financial sector seemed willing to cut him a check to go through with it.

Knocking down the real physical cost of this boondoggle is going to de-monopolize this awful idea, which means Altman won't have a trillion dollar line of credit to fuck around with exclusively. We'll still do it, but Wall Street won't have Sam leading them around by the nose when they can get the same thing for 1/100th of the price.

in reply to Treczoks

Looks like it is not any smarter than the other junk on the market. The confusion that people consider AI as “intelligence” may be rooted in their own deficits in that area.


Yep, because they believed that OpenAI's (two lies in a name) models would magically digivolve into something that goes well beyond what it was designed to be. Trust us, you just have to feed it more data!

And now people exchange one American Junk-spitting Spyware for a Chinese junk-spitting spyware. Hurray! Progress!


That's the neat bit, really. With that model being free to download and run locally it's actually potentially disruptive to OpenAI's business model. They don't need to do anything malicious to hurt the US' economy.

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in reply to Treczoks

I'm tired of this uninformed take.

LLMs are not a magical box you can ask anything of and get answers. If you are lucky and blindly asking questions it can give some accurate general data, but just like how human brains work you aren't going to be able to accurately recreate random trivia verbatim from a neural net.

What LLMs are useful for, and how they should be used, is a non-deterministic parsing context tool. When people talk about feeding it more data they think of how these things are trained. But you also need to give it grounding context outside of what the prompt is. give it a PDF manual, website link, documentation, whatever and it will use that as context for what you ask it. You can even set it to link to reference.

You still have to know enough to be able to validate the information it is giving you, but that's the case with any tool. You need to know how to use it.

As for the spyware part, that only matters if you are using the hosted instances they provide. Even for OpenAI stuff you can run the models locally with opensource software and maintain control over all the data you feed it. As far as I have found, none of the models you run with Ollama or other local AI software have been caught pushing data to a remote server, at least using open source software.

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Idiotic market reaction. Buy the dip, if that's your thing? But this is all disgusting, day trading and chasing news like fucking vultures
in reply to synae[he/him]

Yeah, after what happened, I now understand how irrational stock market is.
in reply to synae[he/him]

Yep. It's obviously a bubble, but one that won't pop from just this, the motive is replacing millions of employees with automation, and the bubble will pop when it's clear that won't happen, or when the technology is mature enough that we stop expecting rapid improvement in capabilities.
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in reply to SoulWager

Well both of those things have been true months if not years, so if those are the conditions for a pop then they are met.
in reply to Umbrias

It's gambling. The potential payoff is still huge for whoever gets there first. Short term anyway. They won't be laughing so hard when they fire everyone and learn there's nobody left to buy anything.
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in reply to Umbrias

Get to the point of replacing a category of employee with automation.
in reply to SoulWager

Oh! Hahahaha. No.

the vc techfeudalist wet dreams of llm replacing humans are dead, they just want to milk the illusion as long as they can.

in reply to Umbrias

The tech is already good enough that any call center employees should be looking for other work. That one is just waiting on the company-specific implementations. In twenty years, calling a major company's customer service and having any escalation path that involves a human will be as rare as finding a human elevator operator today.
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in reply to SoulWager

the tech is barely good enough that it is vaguely maybe feasibly cheaper to waste someone's time using a robot rather than a human- oh wait we do that already with other tech.

"in 20 years imagine how good it'll be!" alas, no, it scales logarithmically at best and all discussion is poisoned by "what it might be!" in the future, rather than what it is.

in reply to Umbrias

It's not necessary to improve the quality to make this happen, only to train it to work with that company's products and issues, and integrate it into whatever other systems that may be needed. Just need enough call logs for training data, and that's already something that's collected.
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in reply to SoulWager

except current robot systems and people are likely cheaper, especially when you consider companies are liable for what llm say. which leaves, essentially, scams and other slop, as the last remaining use cases. multi trillion dollar business without a use case.
in reply to Umbrias

The money saved on wages would cover a LOT of liability. And most people that have a case don't pursue it anyway.
in reply to SoulWager

what money saved on wages?? it's competing with a dollar a day laborers. $10 per 1 million tokens, for the "bad" (they all suck) models (something that cant even do this job!). if you can pretend the hallucinations dont matter, you are getting a phone call for (4 letters per token, 6 minute avg support call, 135 wpm talking rate let's say 120 to be nice -> 720 tokens per call) = $0.0072 per call. the average call center employee handles around 40 calls a day, so hey, the bad cant-actually-do-it chatgpt 4 is 70 cents per day cheaper than your typical call center indian!

Except. that is the massively subsidized money hemorrhaging rate. We know that oai should be charging probably an oom or two more. and the newer models are vastly more expensive, o1 takes around 100x the compute, and still couldnt be a call center employee. so that price is actually at least $30 per day. Cheaper than a us employee, but still cant actually do the job anyway.

in reply to Umbrias

How are both conditions meer when all this just started 2(?) years ago? And progress is still going very fast.
in reply to lud

all this started in 2023? alas no time marches on, llm have been a thing for decades and the main boom happened more in 2021. progress is not fast, no, these are companies throwing as much compute at their problems as they can. deepseek's caused a 2t drop by being marginal progress in a field (llms specifically) out of ideas.
in reply to Umbrias

The huge AI LLM boom/bubble started after chatGPT came out.

But of fucking course it existed before.

in reply to lud

regardless of where you want to define the starting point of the boom, it's been clear for months up to years depending on who you ask that they are plateuing. and harshly. stop listening to hypesters and people with a financial interest in llm being magic.
in reply to SoulWager

I love the fact that the same executives who obsess over return to office because WFH ruins their socialization and sexual harassment opportunities think think they're going to be able to replace all their employees with AI. My brother in Christ. You have already made it clear that you care more about work being your own social club than you do actual output or profitability. You are NOT going to embrace AI. You can't force an AI to have sex with you in exchange for keeping its job, and that's the only trick you know!
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Nvidia’s most advanced chips, H100s, have been banned from export to China since September 2022 by US sanctions. Nvidia then developed the less powerful H800 chips for the Chinese market, although they were also banned from export to China last October.


I love how in the US they talk about meritocracy, competition being good, blablabla... but they rig the game from the beginning. And even so, people find a way to be better. Fascinating.

in reply to Arehandoro

You're watching an empire in decline. It's words stopped matching its actions decades ago.
in reply to JOMusic

how long do you think it'll take before the west decides to block all access to the model?
in reply to thespcicifcocean

They actually can't. Being open-source, it's already proliferated. Apparently there are already over 500 derivatives of it on HuggingFace.
The only thing that could be done is that each country in the West outlaws having a copy of it, like with other illegal materials.
Even by that point, it will already be deep within business ecosystems across the globe.

Nup. OpenAI can be shut down, but it is almost impossible for R1 to go away at this point.

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in reply to JOMusic

Is there a way for me to download and run it locally, or does that require a super computer?
in reply to Corkyskog

If you have a GPU with ray tracing hardware and at least 12gVRAM you should be able to run it albeit slowly at home
in reply to Corkyskog

Check out ollama.com You can download a whole bunch of models for free. The way I rum ollama is on linux from the cli, but if you can't do it that way try jan.ai
in reply to JOMusic

It’s ridiculous to think that there would still be an alliance of “Western Countries”. The Greenland thing, the threats related to NATO, tariff threats, techbros weaponising the US government to escape regulation in Europe etc etc. China is the FAR more reliable partner for Europe and South America. Good luck blocking the Chinese software in the US, but I think you will find no friends with your new leader in place.
in reply to Eatspancakes84

Yeah there is a lot of bro-style crap going on right now, but China is a brutal dictatorship.

Choose wisely.

in reply to 5in1k

On the brightside, the clear fragility and lack of direct connection to real productive forces shows the instability of the present system.
in reply to Cowbee [he/they]

And no matter how many protectionist measures that the US implements we're seeing that they're losing the global competition. I guess protectionism and oligarchy aren't the best ways to accomplish the stated goals of a capitalist economy. How soon before China is leading in every industry?
in reply to leftytighty

This conclusion was foregone when China began to focus on developing the Productive Forces and the US took that for granted. Without a hard pivot, the US can't even hope to catch up to the productive trajectory of China, and even if they do hard pivot, that doesn't mean they even have a chance to in the first place.

In fact, protectionism has frequently backfired, and had other nations seeking inclusion into BRICS or more favorable relations with BRICS nations.

in reply to 5in1k

That’s the thing: if the cost of AI goes down , and AI is a valuable input to businesses that should be a good thing for the economy. To be sure, not for the tech sector that sells these models, but for all of the companies buying these services it should be great.
in reply to Black History Month

TSMC just finished building out a foundry in Arizona, so there's a nativist argument that we don't need the island's original facilities anymore.
in reply to UnderpantsWeevil

Only building outdated chips on an old fab process. And they’re having a hard time hiring Americans to work there.

glassdoor.com/Reviews/TSMC-Rev…

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

No surprise. American companies are chasing fantasies of general intelligence rather than optimizing for today's reality.
in reply to Clent

That, and they are just brute forcing the problem. Neural nets have been around for ever but it's only been the last 5 or so years they could do anything. There's been little to no real breakthrough innovation as they just keep throwing more processing power at it with more inputs, more layers, more nodes, more links, more CUDA.

And their chasing a general AI is just the short sighted nature of them wanting to replace workers with something they don't have to pay and won't argue about it's rights.

in reply to Naia

Also all of these technologies forever and inescapably must rely on a foundation of trust with users and people who are sources of quality training data, "trust" being something US tech companies seem hell bent on lighting on fire and pissing off the yachts of their CEOs.
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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

This just shows how speculative the whole AI obsession has been. Wildly unstable and subject to huge shifts since its value isn't based on anything solid.
in reply to SocialMediaRefugee

It's based on guessing what the actual worth of AI is going to be, so yeah, wildly speculative at this point because breakthroughs seem to be happening fairly quickly, and everyone is still figuring out what they can use it for.

There are many clear use cases that are solid, so AI is here to stay, that's for certain. But how far can it go, and what will it require is what the market is gambling on.

If out of the blue comes a new model that delivers similar results on a fraction of the hardware, then it's going to chop it down by a lot.

If someone finds another use case, for example a model with new capabilities, boom value goes up.

It's a rollercoaster...

in reply to ByteJunk

There are many clear use cases that are solid, so AI is here to stay, that’s for certain. But how far can it go, and what will it require is what the market is gambling on.


I would disagree on that. There are a few niche uses, but OpenAI can't even make a profit charging $200/month.

The uses seem pretty minimal as far as I've seen. Sure, AI has a lot of applications in terms of data processing, but the big generic LLMs propping up companies like OpenAI? Those seems to have no utility beyond slop generation.

Ultimately the market value of any work produced by a generic LLM is going to be zero.

in reply to WoodScientist

Language learning, code generatiom, brainstorming, summarizing. AI has a lot of uses. You're just either not paying attention or are biased against it.

It's not perfect, but it's also a very new technology that's constantly improving.

in reply to NιƙƙιDιɱҽʂ

I decided to close the post now - there is place for any opinion, but I can see people writing things which are completely false however you look at them: you can dislike Sam Altman (I do), you can worry about China's interest in entering the competition now and like that (I do), but the comments about LLM being useless while millions of people use it daily for multiple purposes sound just like lobbying.
in reply to WoodScientist

It's difficult to take your comment serious when it's clear that all you're saying seems to based on ideological reasons rather than real ones.

Besides that, a lot of the value is derived from the market trying to figure out if/what company will develop AGI. Whatever company manages to achieve it will easily become the most valuable company in the world, so people fomo into any AI company that seems promising.

in reply to UndercoverUlrikHD

Besides that, a lot of the value is derived from the market trying to figure out if/what company will develop AGI. Whatever company manages to achieve it will easily become the most valuable company in the world, so people fomo into any AI company that seems promising.


There is zero reason to think the current slop generating technoparrots will ever lead into AGI. That premise is entirely made up to fuel the current
"AI" bubble

in reply to Jhex

The market don't care what either of us think, investors will do what investors do, speculate.
in reply to Jhex

They may well lead to the thing that leads to the thing that leads to the thing that leads to AGI though. Where there's a will
in reply to Leg

sure, but that can be said of literally anything. It would be interesting if LLM were at least new but they have been around forever, we just now have better hardware to run them
in reply to Jhex

That's not even true. LLMs in their modern iteration are significantly enabled by transformers, something that was only proposed in 2017.

The conceptual foundations of LLMs stretch back to the 50s, but neither the physical hardware nor the software architecture were there until more recently.

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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Interesting it won’t let you login or signup using a VPN, even set to the correct country
in reply to Dupree878

Aren't VPNs illegal in China?
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in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

So if the Chinese version is so efficient, and is open source, then couldn't openAI and anthropic run the same on their huge hardware and get enormous capacity out of it?
in reply to PlutoniumAcid

It's not multimodal so I'd have to imagine it wouldn't be worth pursuing in that regard.
in reply to Yggnar

doesn't deepseek work on that though with their janus models?
in reply to PlutoniumAcid

Not necessarily... if I gave you my "faster car" for you to run on your private 7 lane highway, you can definitely squeeze every last bit of the speed the car gives, but no more.

DeepSeek works as intended on 1% of the hardware the others allegedly "require" (allegedly, remember this is all a super hype bubble)... if you run it on super powerful machines, it will perform nicer but only to a certain extend... it will not suddenly develop more/better qualities just because the hardware it runs on is better

in reply to Jhex

This makes sense, but it would still allow a hundred times more people to use the model without running into limits, no?
in reply to Jhex

Didn't deepseek solve some of the data wall problems by creating good chain of thought data with an intermediate RL model. That approach should work with the tried and tested scaling laws just using much more compute.
in reply to PlutoniumAcid

OpenAI could use less hardware to get similar performance if they used the Chinese version, but they already have enough hardware to run their model.

Theoretically the best move for them would be to train their own, larger model using the same technique (as to still fully utilize their hardware) but this is easier said than done.

in reply to MetalMachine

So can I have a private version of it that doesn't tell everyone about me and my questions?
in reply to tooclose104

Yes, you can run a downgraded version of it on your own pc.
in reply to TonyTonyChopper

Apparently phone too! Like 3 cards down was another post linking to instructions on how to run it locally on a phone in a container app or termux. Really interesting. I may try it out in a vm on my server.
in reply to tooclose104

I watched one video and read 2 pages of text. So take this with a mountain of salt. From that I gathered that deepseek R1 is the model you interact with when you use the app. The complexity of a model is expressed as the number of parameters (though I don't know yet what those are) which dictate its hardware requirements. R1 contains 670 bn Parameter and requires very very beefy server hardware. A video said it would be 10th of GPUs. And it seems you want much of VRAM on you GPU(s) because that's what AI crave. I've also read 1BN parameters require about 2GB of VRAM.

Got a 6 core intel, 1060 6 GB VRAM,16 GB RAM and Endeavour OS as a home server.

I just installed Ollama in about 1/2 an hour, using docker on above machine with no previous experience on neural nets or LLMs apart from chatting with ChatGPT. The installation contains the Open WebUI which seems better than the default you got at ChatGPT. I downloaded the qwen2.5:3bn model (see ollama.com/search) which contains 3 bn parameters. I was blown away by the result. It speaks multiple languages (including displaying e.g. hiragana), knows how much fingers a human has, can calculate, can write valid rust-code and explain it and it is much faster than what i get from free ChatGPT.

The WebUI offers a nice feedback form for every answer where you can give hints to the AI via text, 10 score rating thumbs up/down. I don't know how it incooperates that feedback, though. The WebUI seems to support speech-to-text and vice versa. I'm eager to see if this docker setup even offers APIs.

I'll probably won't use the proprietary stuff anytime soon.

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in reply to Phoenicianpirate

Checkout ollama.
ollama.com/library/deepseek-r1
in reply to SpaceRanger

Thank you very much. I did ask chatGPT was technical questions about some... subjects... but having something that is private AND can give me all the information I want/need is a godsend.

Goodbye, chatGPT! I barely used you, but that is a good thing.

in reply to Phoenicianpirate

Yeah, but you have to run a different model if you want accurate info about China.
in reply to Mongostein

Yeah but China isn't my main concern right now. I got plenty of questions to ask and knowledge to seek and I would rather not be broadcasting that stuff to a bunch of busybody jackasses.
in reply to Phoenicianpirate

I agree. I don’t know enough about all the different models, but surely there’s a model that’s not going to tell you “<whoever’s> government is so awesome” when asking about rainfall or some shit.
in reply to Mongostein

Unfortunately it's trained on the same US propaganda filled english data as any other LLM and spits those same talking points. The censors are easy to bypass too.
in reply to MetalMachine

I asked it about Tiananmen Square, it told me it can't answer that because it can only respond with "harmless" responses.
in reply to CeeBee_Eh

Yes the online model has those filters. Some one tried it with one of the downloaded models and it answers just fine
in reply to Ascend910

I tried the smaller models and it's not fine. It's hard coded.
in reply to MetalMachine

You misspelled "lies". Or were you trying to type "psyops tool"??
in reply to CeeBee_Eh

That's kind of normal, it was made in China after all and the developers didn't want to end up in jail I bet.

That said, china is of course a crappy dictatorship.

in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

Almost like yet again the tech industry is run by lemming CEOs chasing the latest moss to eat.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

I am extremely ignorant of all this AI thing. So please can somebody "Explain Like I'm 5" why can this new thing can wipe off over a trillion dollars in US stock ? I would appreciate it a lot if you can help.
in reply to DiaDeLosMuertos

Basically US company's involved in AI have been grossly over valued for the last few years due to having a sudo monopoly over AI tech (companies like open ai who make chat gpt and nvidia who make graphics cards used to run ai models)

Deep seek (Chinese company) just released a free, open source version of chat gpt that cost a fraction of the price to train (setup) which has caused the US stock valuations to drop as investors are realising the US isn't the only global player, and isn't nearly as far ahead as previously thought.

Nvidia is losing value as it was previously believed that top of the line graphics cards were required for ai, but turns out they are not. Nvidia have geared their company strongly towards providing for ai in recent times.

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in reply to pyre

I mean, Nvidia isn't really out, they went from making a relatively niche tech product to the world's most in-demand tech product by being in the right place at the right time with AI and crypto. At worst they will be back where they started
in reply to potustheplant

::: spoiler spoiler
fuck reddit
:::
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in reply to DiaDeLosMuertos

Let's say I make a thing. Let's say somebody offers to buy it from me for $10. I sell it to them, and then let's say somebody else makes a better thing, and now no one will pay more than $2 for my thing. If my thing is a publicly traded corporation, then that just "wiped off" $8 from the stock market. The person I sold it to "lost" $8. Corporations that make AI and the hardware to run it just "lost" a lot of value.
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in reply to DiaDeLosMuertos

"You see, dear grandchildren, your grandfather used to have an apple orchard. The fruits were so sweet and nutritious that every town citizen wanted a taste because they thought it was the only possible orchard in the world. Therefore the citizens gave a lot of money to your grandfather because the citizens thought the orchard would give them more apples in return, more than the worth of the money they gave. Little did they know the world was vastly larger than our ever more arid US wasteland. Suddenly an oriental orchard was discovered which was surprisingly cheaper to plant, maintain, and produced more apples. This meant a significant potential loss of money for the inhabitants of the town called Idiocracy. Therefore, many people asked their money back by selling their imaginary not-yet-grown apples to people who think the orchard will still be worth more in the future.

This is called investing, or to those who are honest with themselves: participating in a multi-level marketing pyramid scheme. You see, children, it can make a lot of money, but it destroys the soul and our habitat at the same time, which goes unnoticed by all these people with advanced degrees. So think again when you hear someone speak with fancy words and untamed confidence. Many a times their reasoning falls below the threshold of dog poop. But that's a story for another time. Sweet dreams."

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in reply to Cynicus Rex

The best description of reddit's WallstreetBets sub I've ever seen.
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in reply to buddascrayon

I shall pin this comment to the top of my curriculum vitae.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

All of this deepseek hype is overblown. Deepseek model was still trained on older american Nvidia GPUs.
in reply to scratsearcher 🔍🔮📊🎲

AI is overblown, tech is overblown. Capitalism itself is a senseless death cult based on the non-sensical idea that infinite growth is possible with a fragile, finite system.
in reply to scratsearcher 🔍🔮📊🎲

Your confidence in this statement is hilarious the fact that it doesn't help your argument at all. If anything, the fact they refined their model so well on older hardware is even more remarkable, and quite damning when OpenAI claims it needs literally cities worth of power and resources to train their models.
in reply to Alas Poor Erinaceus

The "1 trillion" never existed in the first place. It was all hype by a bunch of Tech-Bros, huffing each other's farts.