the largest group that truly wants the U.S. to fail is :

North Korea

China

Russia

the rest realize having the U.S. fail is going to be really bad.

EDIT: Didn't notice your system specs at first. While it looks like your motherboard technically supports the TPM 2.0 requirement for Windows 11, it also looks like your processor might be too old to be supported by Windows 11. Check to be sure before going down the path below. You might only have an option of going to Linux in this case.

Unpopular opinion from a user who uses Linux as his daily driver for everything:

If you're using stuff like Cakewalk/Ableton and want to be able to do so again in the foreseeable future, stick with Windows. You said you're not super savvy at troubleshooting, so I wouldn't want to send you down the path of trying to get Windows software running on Linux through WINe because it's sometimes pretty finicky. Especially with a rugrat in the mix, you just don't have the time to be fucking with it.

Windows 11 Activation: massgrave.dev/ (In case you no longer have a free upgrade path)

WIndows Debloat: github.com/Raphire/Win11Debloa… (A powershell script for getting rid of bloatware, telemetry, and other crap from Windows)

How To Set Up Windows 11 Local Account: (to avoid having to use a Microsoft account to log in)

Also, I strongly suggest a clean wipe instead of upgrade, as the upgrade path leaves a lot of weird stray stuff that can be annoying. Back up everything that's important to you on an external drive (or really any drive except the one your OS lives on) and re-install the OS, set up a local account during install, use Massgrave to activate Windows, and then use the Debloater to get rid of bloat.

Microsoft Activation Scripts (MAS) | MAS

Open-source Windows and Office activator featuring HWID, Ohook, TSforge, KMS38, and Online KMS activation methods, along with advanced troubleshooting.

^{massgrave.dev}

normally id say "linux is free, there's no harm in giving it a go", but between your lack of free time, nvidia graphics card, dependence on proprietary software, and previous experience (and slight distain) for linux i'd say just go with win 11.

there may be a way to get your music software to work in linux, but youll likely need to mess around with wine configs and it may never actualoy work right.

if you are interested ever, fire up a vm and play around with linux to get comfortable with it. maybe when win11 reaches eol (or even before) you'll want to make the switch.

none of this is said to scare you away from linux. searching for drivers is rarely a thing in linux. there are built in tools in most distros to deal with graphics drivers, but apart from that, given the open source nature of linux, everything else is just handled by kernel modules and are basically seamless unless you have some weird proprietary hardware. linux is fairly easy to use these days, but there is quite a bit of a learning curve because it is a fundamentally different os than windows, and the way you solve problems is very different.

I ended up switching to Linux recently for same reasons, but my kids are older and i had time to nerd out and go full Archwiki. Ableton was one of the last holdouts that was keeping me from switching.... and I spent a good month dicking around with wine trying to get it to work. And I couldn't! I ended up selling my Ableton license and buying Bitwig, which is natively supported in Linux, and actually pretty amazing... (I don't expect you to switch, just telling my story. It has really fun modular synth-like interface, with all the other VST support and quite good out-of-the-box plugins etc.)

I also couldn't get Affinity Photo working in wine.... and gimp doesn't quite do it for me. So I'm not sure what to do there, so my photo editing hobby is on hold til I figure that out.

That said, some of my other windows stuff works magically in wine (sierrachart, games, etc.).

So with all that in mind, I'd say if you don't have time to figure it out, and still want ableton to work, it might not be worth the mental load until you have more time on your hands. Unless you have an old laptop lying around, it wouldn't hurt to just try it and see what you can get working.

So, the questions really are can your hardware support Windows 11 and if not can you easily flip to Linux.

1. The Asus Z170 motherboard looks like it supports TPM 2.0, but it doesn't look like the i7-6700K does as that is a 6th gen Skylake CPU and Win11 starts at 8th gen. You might double check that with the TDM tool Microsoft offers though.
2. Cakewalk and Ableton appear to work in Linux, but not without some tweaking.

My suggestion would be to do nothing. If you can't update without a rebuild and you can't migrate without a lot work, just do nothing. Your Windows 10 installation will still work. You won't receive any additional updates for it, but if that is the best solution for you at this time, then that's what you should go with.

For the kiddo:
Get a body wrap. It lets you because hold the baby to you securely while you do other things. I worked on-call shifts handling downed MPLS circuits for a carrier back in the day with my daughter strapped to me. A couple years later she would get to visit me at work. She was the only 2 year old who technically had PBX configuration experience (I didn't know the keyboard was still connected).

You don't have to upgrade to 11 for at least a year or longer. Register a free MS account for your win 10 and you get free patches for Win 10 for a year. Otherwise it's $30.

cnet.com/tech/computing/micros…

Microsoft Is Giving Windows 10 Users Free Security Updates for a Year, but There's a Catch

Not ready to move on to Windows 11? You can pay for another year of Windows 10 security updates, or you can take advantage of this free option.

^{Joe Hindy (CNET)}

Linux for gaming is easy. For the most part it’s plug and play. I’m on an AMD CPU and an NVidia GPU, and I even do VR in Linux.

As someone who does a decent amount of stuff with DAWs; VSTs are tricky. You might be able to create a similar workflow to what your used to, and many plugins might work decently well, but for me at least it was a lot of fiddling about and it isn’t as smooth as I’d like. My comfort compressor works, but the UI doesn’t render.

I’ve gotten my music workflow to work alright, but it’s wonky enough that I don’t do it as much anymore. Thinking about trying to start over with a new DAW and whatnot.

If privacy is a concern there’s a decent amount of stuff you can do to strip down Windows 11.

As most people suggest, I'd also recommend going with Windows 11 for this use case, but with the caveat that you should get a Windows 11 IoT Enterprise LTSC license if you can find it.

It's the best version of the OS. It only pushes security updates, no new features ( this means xbox and candy crush won't magically show up in your start menu after major updates) and it comes with all the AI and Microsoft Store stuff stripped out.

Theoretically, this OS was designed for things like kiosk computers and control systems that need to maintain a stable environment, but it can do everything the pro version does with no hassle.

The downside is that it's hard to find. Microsoft won't sell it outside of volume license keys under enterprise agreements, but it is available through grey-market key sellers, and can be activated using the MAS if the high seas are an option.

Are you intent on ableton and cakewalk (holy shit I haven’t heard cake walk in a minute)?

For ableton, I’d even consider Mac.

I have never personally used ableton and I was not very advanced with FL studio, but at least LMMS seemed to be FL studio like .

It all boils down to how willing you are to troubleshoot an odd problem or post on a linux nerd forum. I transitioned from win10 to fedora KDE pretty painlessly, though I did have to hit up the fedora forum for an answer to a weird hardware issue specific to my machine. Learning to use the command line for doing a few weird customizations I wanted was a bit of a stumble too (though I've heard from my mint using buddy this isn't an issue on Mint?)

My steam library works fine with the default proton option enabled and my day to day experience has me forgetting that I'm even on a weirdo operating system made by FOSS cultists (love you foss cultists, mwah.) I literally do just press a button every couple of weeks that updates the system in the way that you're looking for.

If you're not in a position to change your workflow and deal with new stuff, you can simply use windows 10 lts for a longer support and postpone the decision between linux and windows 11.

Personally, I'd recommend trying linux some day. It can drain some free time at first, but in the long run, you will find yourself dealing with much less bullshit than windows, and actually saving time in your life. Some linux users like to make things complicated and pass their time tinkering with the system, so it passes an image of linux being like that, but if you run a simple and stable distro, things will work nicely and will rarely require your time. I'm running fedora for a few years, and my laptop became so boring. I just use it for my work and hobbies, and turn it off when done. No bullshit.

The kid is 1.5 months old and you don't have time? Once that kid gets mobile you'll really not have time! And I don't mean crawling or walking, I mean rolling and scooting.

When my kid figured out how to get places by rolling I had gotten up with her early on a Saturday morning and was letting my wife sleep in... I went to the basement and turned on the Xbox to pay some Rocket League and in the middle of a game she started to roll out of the room. I put the controller down and went to pick her up... 4 years later that controller was exactly where I had put it. She's now almost 9 and is a great gaming partner, and is getting into robotics, 3D printing, and is interested in programming, so I get to jump right back into my old hobbies, and pick up some new ones.

All that to say, Linux is only going to get better and Windows will continue to get worse, but there's more important things for you to have to worry about in the very near future than troubleshooting an OS that you're not familiar with, stick with Win 10 for as long as you can and some day you'll sit down at your desk and realize you have time to look back in at Linux and you'll find that it isn't nearly as difficult to use as you remember. Congratulations on the kid, it can be an incredible journey watching, and helping, a person emerge.

2 kids here.

Avoid any challenges until you can handle the most important one. Just come back when he's 1 y/o.

I now game with them on my Bazzite Linux desktop PC and our Steam Deck. Kids love it.

Dad of 4 kids here, I would say use the system that let you concentrate more on the kid and less on tinkering the OS.

Fedora could be a nice successor since it runs extremely stable, best way to be clean and safe are doing the updates, but I say this with 15 years of Linux experience.

Better stay on win 10. Family first.