The Establishment Of Armenian-Pakistani Diplomatic Ties Is Part Of A Larger Powerplay
The Establishment Of Armenian-Pakistani Diplomatic Ties Is Part Of A Larger Powerplay
It’s about turbocharging the emerging Turkish-Azeri-Pak bloc by giving Islamabad access to TRIPP for facilitating trade with Turkiye and Europe in order to consolidate this bloc’s sway across Central Asia.
The Armenian and Pakistani Foreign Ministers signed a joint communique on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Tianjin establishing diplomatic ties. Pakistan was the only country in the world that didn’t recognize Armenia out of solidarity with Azerbaijan in the Karabakh Conflict. Now that it’s resolved and Pakistan’s US patron got those two former rivals to agree to the “Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which replaced Russia’s role, Pakistan saw an opportunity to recognize Armenia.
This isn’t being done as the prerequisite for free trade talks with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union of which Armenia is part and with whose leader Pakistan has recently drawn close. After all, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed long-running speculation in late August that Armenia might withdraw from that bloc as it moves closer to the EU, so this isn’t driving Pakistani policy. Rather, this is part of a larger powerplay in Central Asia, albeit one that’s cloaked in the guise of its rivalry with India.
The resumption of large-scale Armenian-Azerbaijani hostilities in late 2020 had the unintended consequence of expanding the Indian-Pakistani rivalry to the South Caucasus. Pakistan extended political (and reportedly also military) support to Azerbaijan for the previously mentioned reason while India did the same to Armenia as a counterweight to the emerging Turkish-Azeri-Pak bloc. India’s arms sales to Armenia then continued to grow to the point where India became Armenia’s largest arms supplier.
These purchases weren’t just driven by military-security considerations vis-à-vis Azerbaijan but also by political ones with respect to Armenia diversifying from its hitherto dependence on Russian equipment. The US-brokered TRIPP corridor, the resultant de-escalation of Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions, and the new establishment of Armenian-Pakistani diplomatic ties might soon lead to less Indian imports, which would then predictably be spun by the emerging Turkish-Azeri-Pak bloc as a victory over India.
The truth though is that the expansion of the Indian-Pakistani rivalry to the South Caucasus never had much of an influence over regional events. The most important factor by far wasn’t their growing ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively, but the course of the Russian-US rivalry, which ultimately led to setbacks for the first and gains for the second. The outcome was that Armenia, which has since become an Azeri-Turkish protectorate, became receptive to establishing diplomatic ties with Pakistan.
While this might be sold to the Armenian public as opening up new markets, its leadership is really moving in this direction in order to turbocharge the emerging Turkish-Azeri-Pak bloc by giving Islamabad access to TRIPP for facilitating trade with Turkiye and Europe. If China’s attempts to mediate a rapprochement between Afghanistan and Pakistan succeed, which they may not, then Pakistani exports could transit through there to Turkmenistan and across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, TRIPP, and beyond.
Therefore, while the emerging Turkish-Azeri-Pak bloc might hype up the symbolic setback for India that the establishment of Armenian-Pakistani diplomatic ties represents, that would just be a diversion from the larger powerplay taking place along Russia’s entire southern periphery. A whole new centre of influence is forming there before the world’s eyes with the US’ full support, which could greatly undermine Russia’s, India’s, and Iran’s shared geostrategic interests in this space if it isn’t kept in check.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.
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#Armenia #Azerbaijan #CentralAsia #EU #EurasianEconomicUnion #Geopolitics #Pakistan #SCO #USA
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Russia’s Neutrality During The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict Was Due To New Policymaking Dynamics
Russia’s Neutrality During The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict Was Due To New Policymaking DynamicsRussia might be reassessing India’s role in Eurasia.
Alexei Zakharov is a respected Russian expert on South Asia who serves as a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme, which is one of India’s top think tanks. He recently published an insightful piece titled, “Can India rely on Russia to diplomatically isolate Pakistan? It seems unlikely”, which candidly explains Russia’s neutrality during the latest Indo-Pak conflict. In a nutshell, he believes that Russia’s growing ties with Pakistan are the main reason, but there’s actually a bit more to it.
This analysis here from last summer enumerates several others which posit that a pro-BRI policymaking faction now exists in Russia as the friendly rival of the established balancing/pragmatic one. The first believes that the return to a form of Sino-US bi-multipolarity is inevitable and thus wants to accelerate China’s superpower trajectory as revenge against the US for all it’s done since 2022. The second, by contrast, want to avert outsized dependence on China by relying on India as a friendly counterweight.
Russia’s neutrality towards the latest Indo-Pak conflict coupled with the pro-Pakistani (and even sometimes anti-Indian) commentary of top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” influencers within its global media ecosystem, which could have been corrected with some “gentle nudges” but wasn’t, surprised some observers. After all, it was concluded here after Modi’s trip to Moscow last summer that his visit was a victory for the balancing/pragmatic policymaking faction, yet it was evidently short-lived as seen.
It arguably seems like the pro-BRI faction is back to influencing Russia’s South Asian policy as suggested by the preceding examples, with this perception being lent immense credence by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s speech at the Diplomatic Club on Thursday. He warned that the West wants to pit India against China and strongly alluded to the Quad, in which India participates, as an example of an “openly confrontational” format. All of this implies that Russia might be reassessing India’s role in Eurasia.
Instead of continuing to be seen as a friendly counterweight to China that’ll also help jointly speed up Eurasia’s integration, it might soon be suspected of being a hostile counterweight to China that could also obstruct the aforesaid integration at the US’ behest. The second perception could influence policy if Russia becomes more dependent on China in the event that tensions escalate with the US over Ukraine or if Russia engages in major deal-making with the US and/or China in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Either scenario would likely solidify the pro-BRI policymaking faction’s newly restored influence over their balancing/pragmatic rivals, though Putin himself remains a committed member of the second faction, which is why his planned trip to India later this year could even everything out in that event. If neither of the abovementioned scenarios materializes, then policymaking influence might naturally oscillate back towards the balancing/pragmatic faction with time, or at least after Putin’s planned trip.
Circling back to Zakharov, he’s correct that Russia’s growing ties with Pakistan were responsible for Russia’s neutrality during the latest Indo-Pak conflict, but that’s only due to the newly influential pro-BRI policymaking faction conceptualizing them in a Sino-US bi-multipolarity context. This contrasts with how their balancing/pragmatic rivals conceptualize them as part of Russia’s multi-alignment strategy. India should be aware of these new policymaking dynamics in order to avoid misunderstandings with Russia.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.
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#China #Eurasia #Geopolitics #India #Pakistan #Russia
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#FotoVorschlag zum heutigen Thema "Moderne Zeiten":
Ein beeindruckender Eis-Automat in der beliebten Einkaufsstraße Takeshita Street in Tokyo ...
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City bokeh.
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Summicron 35mm F2 v4 ("King of Bokeh")
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