One strange thing to me with all this rampant insider trading on Polymarket etc is why the gamblers themselves aren't loudly calling foul. These insiders are jumping in at the last second and diluting their winnings!
If I had $10 the coin flip was heads, you had $10 that the coin was tails, the coin is in the air, and someone bets at the last second $90 that the coin is heads (because they're friends with the magician pulling the trick), and turns out, the coin is heads!
Now I WOULD have won $10 on my $10 bet. But now I'm only walking away with $1. That sort of shit would make me take my business somewhere else.
Edit maybe I'm misunderstanding how their math works out? But either way, someone's losing earnings when insiders play
infosec.exchange/@JessTheUnsti…
@dlakelan okay it seems like you're more right than me? But I can't imagine that there's a ton of counterparties showing up at the last minute. So I'm guessing they're basically buying shares off of the people who have order limits? So for the people who said "sell at 0.7", their shares get bought at the 0.7 of the value rather than 100% of the value
alphatechfinance.com/tech/poly…Polymarket Ultimate Guide 2025: How It Works, How to Use It, Real Use Cases, Advantages, and Lessons for Smart Investors - AlphaTechFinance
Polymarket explained for 2025: how prediction markets work, how to use the platform step-by-step, fees, order types, real use cases, risks, and lessons for investors. Ultra-modern, beginner-friendly guide with tables and comparisons.Alpha Tech (AlphaTechFinance)
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K.C. Budd
in reply to Jess👾 • • •SnoopJ
in reply to Jess👾 • • •@jannem calling foul is a sure way to mark oneself as outside the in-group that is running the grift, working directly against it
and if there is something many of the gamblers very badly want, it is to be part of that in-group
Jess👾
in reply to SnoopJ • • •Jess👾
in reply to Jess👾 • • •Rich Puchalsky ⩜⃝
in reply to Jess👾 • • •Daniel Lakeland
in reply to Jess👾 • • •I'm not an expert, but I don't think that's how these markets work?
I thought for example suppose there's some event like "US Bombs Iran in Feb" it's Jan, the current price is $0.1 per contract, each contract pays $1.
Now you think "there's a much higher chance than 10%, I'll buy $1000 worth". And someone else says "there's no chance... I'll take $0.1 for every $1 I have to put up no problem".
Daniel Lakeland
in reply to Daniel Lakeland • • •So then the counterparty puts $1000 in their account and sells you 1000 contracts for $100. And hopes to hold them through the end of Feb, and collect the $100.
You hope iran gets bombed and you collect the $1000 held in escrow.
It doesn't matter what else happens in the market... at the time you buy you've locked in your return.
Now, that's how things worked last I looked, maybe a decade ago... have they changed?
Jess👾
in reply to Daniel Lakeland • • •alphatechfinance.com/tech/poly…
Polymarket Ultimate Guide 2025: How It Works, How to Use It, Real Use Cases, Advantages, and Lessons for Smart Investors - AlphaTechFinance
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Daniel Lakeland
in reply to Jess👾 • • •